100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY
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I've been trading/betting on football for the last few years at a novice level, with limited success - mostly treading water with small wins and small losses. This "challenge" is as much about accountability and self-discipline as it is about improving results. Too many traders hop between systems, endlessly tweak strategies, and struggle to stick to one thing (myself included!!). I want to break that cycle.
I work full-time, I have a wife and two children under 12, and life can be busy. That means while I'll be as committed as possible to this challenge, it won't always be 100% possible. But I'll show up, stay consistent, and see where this journey takes me. My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility. I want to be earning £1,000 to £2,000 per month on average from football trading within 5 years.
For the next 100 days, I'll be sharing my journey using two structured, data-driven systems. Since September 2023, my In-Play Half-Time System has tracked over 1,600 matches across 25+ leagues, focusing on second-half goal markets when a game is 0-0 at half-time. My Pre-Match System has tracked over 3,000 matches from 50+ leagues, identifying value in goal markets (over/under 2.5, 3.5 etc.) and full-time results, along with many other major markets.
Each morning (where possible), I'll post potential selections based on the data, with final picks shared 10-15 minutes before kick-off. Weekends will be quieter due to time constraints, but I'll aim for consistency during the week.
This is a test of discipline, patience, and trust in the numbers. Feel free to follow along, ask questions, and let's see where 100 days (or more?!) takes us.
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BET 1: Persis Solo v Semen Padang PRE MATCH Over 2.5 goals @ 2.04 odds
BET 2: PSBS Biak Numfor v Persik Kediri PRE MATCH over 2.5 goals @ 2.06 odds
(Big value in BTTS for both games also)
BET 3: Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Acre (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.85 odds
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Half term week this week as I’m sure a lot of you are aware - will update my progress when I get a chance as I’ve been off all week and busy with family life!
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BET 1: Oldham Athletic v Maidenhead United (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.77 odds
BET 2: Southend United v Aldershot Town (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.75 odds
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BET 1: Arema v PSS Sleman (pre match) over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 odds
BET 2: Rizespor v Galatasaray (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 2.18 odds
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BET 1: Hatayspor v Alanyaspor (0-0 at HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.92 odds
BET 2: Eyüpspor v Kayserispor (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.71 odds
BET 3: Katowice v Piast Gliwice (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.98 odds
BET 4: Energie Cottbus v Verl (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.0 odds
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Friday 14/02/25 (DAY 17):-
A few possible qualifiers on the pre-match side of things this evening, depending on odds around 15 mins before KO, so will keep an eye on those.
As for the in-plays, there's potential action at half-time in Israel, Malaysia, Romania, Poland, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, France, Italy, England & Spain if it's 0-0 and the model shows value.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
Value in under 1.5 goals at half-time in the Sepsi v Hermannstadt game but odds are 1.54 which means I won’t be getting involved (finished 2-3!!)
BET 1: (in play) Red Star v Martigues - under 1.5 goals @ 1.70 odds
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Thursday 13/02/25 (DAY 16):-
Nothing likely on the pre-match model for today.
Chance of getting involved in 4 of the Turkey 1. Lig games today/this evening if 0-0 at HT and showing value.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
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Wednesday 12/02/25 (DAY 15):-
Nothing showing on the pre-match model until Friday as things currently stand, although this could change.
Chance of getting involved at half-time in 4 of the English Championship games tonight if 0-0 and showing value.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
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Tuesday 11/02/25 (DAY 14):-
Possible half-time/in-play action tonight from England in the Championship, Leagues One & Two and the National League, although I'm going to see Ricky Gervais so I may well end up missing the bets or not being able to upload them (in which case I'll add them tomorrow just for my own tracking purposes).
No bets in the end (but one hell of a gig!)
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Monday 10/02/25 (DAY 13):-
Quiet again on the pre-match side of things but there may be some half-time action in Israel, Poland, Netherlands and Spain.
BET 1: Oviedo v Eldense (IN-PLAY) - Over 1.5 goals @ 2.98 odds // 0-0
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 0/1 (-1 point)
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
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Sunday 09/02/25 (DAY 12):-
There may be some action in-play @ half-time in the following leagues, if 0-0 and showing value on my model:-
Costa Rica Primera Division
England Championship
Romania Liga 1
Germany 3. Liga
Spain La Liga 2
Turkey Super Lig
Spain La Liga
Portugal Segunda Liga
Turkey 1. Lig
Germany 2. Bundesliga
Switzerland Super League
Thailand Premier LeagueBET 1: (PRE-MATCH) Koln v Schalke - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 odds // 1-0
(-1 point)BET 2: (IN-PLAY) Bristol C v Swansea - Under 1.5 goals @ 1.74 odds - had to re-post as it hadn't uploaded from earlier // 0-1
(+0.73 points)BET 3: (IN-PLAY) Istanbulspor v Ankaragucu - Under 1.5 goals @ 2.10 odds - also huge value showing in the away win @ 4.20 odds // 1-0
(+1.08 points)BET 4: (IN-PLAY) - Servette v Basel - Under 1.5 goals @ 2.10 odds // 2-1
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 2/4 (-0.19 points)
IN-PLAY: 2/3 (+0.81 points)
PRE-MATCH: 0/1 (-1 point)OVERALL: 16/33 @ 48.48% SR (-0.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/17 @ 64.71% (+4.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
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RECAP: Saturday 08/02/25 (DAY 11):-
My son's birthday so I didn't get involved in anything until the afternoon once the festivities and celebrations had finished and the house was blissfully quiet!
BET 1: (PRE-MATCH) Darmstadt v Elversberg - Split stake Over 2.5 (0.6 points @ 1.73 odds)
& Over 3.5 (0.4 points @ 2.80 odds) // 0-3 (+0.03 points overall)BET 2: (IN-PLAY) Unirea Slobozia v Universitatea Craiova - Under 1.5 goals @ 1.90 odds // 0-1
(+0.88)BET 3: (IN-PLAY) Felgueiras v Tondela - Over 1.5 @ 3.75 // 1-0
(-1 point)BET 4: (PRE-MATCH) 1860 Munchen v Ingolstadt - Split stake Over 2.5 (0.6 points @ 1.90) & Over 3.5 (0.4 points @ 3.30) // 1-1
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 2/6 (-1.09 points)
IN-PLAY: 1/2 (-0.12 points)
PRE-MATCH: 1/4 (-0.97 points)OVERALL: 14/29 @ 48.28% SR (-0.45 points)
IN-PLAY: 9/14 @ 64.29% (+3.55 points)
PRE-MATCH: 5/15 @ 33.33% (-4 points) -
@Alex-Rendell hope you have a good celebration tomorrow!
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UPDATED: Friday 07/02/25 (DAY 10):-
Pre-Match potential in the Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld game
this evening;In-Play possibilities come from Israel, Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy, Spain & England (League One)
-It's my son's 12th birthday tomorrow so I won't be posting any Saturday selections (although I may keep track of them and post them on Sunday if I have time, just so I can reflect on the day's action).
BET 1: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa - Under 1.5 goals @ 1.95 odds // 1-0
(+0.93 points)BET 2: Pre-Match - Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld - Over 3.5 goals @ 2.66 odds (value in the home lay also, just for my own reference more than anything) // 1-0
(-1 point)Not a bet but huge value showing for the away win at HT in the Grenoble v Red Star match // (finished 0-0)
BET 3: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Volendam v ADO Den Haag - Under 1.5 goals @ 2.14 odds (value also in backing the draw at 2.94 odds, again just for my own future reference) // 1-2
(-1 point)BET 4: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Albacete v Real Zaragoza - over 1.5 goals @ 2.78 odds (home win value at 3.0 odds) // 2-1
(+1.74 points)BET 5: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Brescia v Salernitana - Draw @ 2.28 odds (value also in under 1.5 goals market but odds too short for my liking) // 0-0
(+1.25 points)BET 6: In-Play - Mansfield Town v Northampton Town - under 1.5 goals @ 1.71 odds // 0-1
(+0.70 points)DAILY TOTAL: 4/6 (+2.62 points)
IN-PLAY: 4/5 (+3.62 points)
PRE-MATCH: 0/1 (-1 point)OVERALL: 12/24 @ 50% SR (+0.64 points)
IN-PLAY: 8/13 @ 61.54% (+3.67 points)
PRE-MATCH: 4/11 @ 36.36% (-3.03 points) -
06/02/25 (DAY 9):-
Quiet day yesterday with nothing coming onto the radar in the end.
Today looks equally as exciting; nothing showing on the Pre-Match model yet but there's possible action in Romania, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and England League Two if 0-0 @ HT and the odds represent value.
Friday should see a decent amount of potential selections...
BET 1: Winterthur v Zurich (0-0 @ HT) back Under 1.5 goals @ 1.92 odds // 0-2
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 0/1 In-Play selections (-1 point)
RUNNING TOTAL(s)
In-Play: +0.05 points (4 winners out of 8 selections @ a strike rate of 50%). Average overall odds: 2.15. Average winning odds: 2.01
Pre-Match: -2.03 points (4/10 @ 40%). Average overall odds: 2.35. Average winnings odds: 2.14
OVERALL: -1.98 points (8/18 @ 44.44%). Average overall odds: 2.26. Average winning odds: 2.06
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05/02/25 (DAY 8):-
As it stands, only the Cluj v Hermannstadt game in Romania and St Gallen v Lugano from Switzerland are potential half-time qualifiers but that could change as the evening progresses.
Nothing showing for the Pre-Match model at the moment.
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04/02/25 (DAY 7):-
Nothing yesterday. Onto tonight:-
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Pre-Match potential selections: One from the Israel Leumit Liga & one from the National League North. (Coleraine v Cliftonville is a possibility but Betfair doesn't seem to like the Northern Ireland Premiership this season!)
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In-Play potentials come from Romania, Israel, Switzerland, England (Championship, League Two & National League) and Scotland. Games must be 0-0 at half-time and also be showing value in the overs/unders markets based on that specific league's model
UPDATE:-
Hapoel Ramat Gan v Bnei Yehuda (0-0 @ HT) - BACK Under 1.5 goals @ 2.10 odds // 2-0
(-1 point)and Hapoel Afula v Hapoel Rishon Lezion (0-0 @ HT) - BACK Over 1.5 goals @ 2.50 odds // 0-1
(-1 point)I'd also backed Over 3.5 goals (pre-match) in the Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Ramat Hasharon game @ 2.64 odds; typed it up on here but forgot to post it! (Anyway, it lost). // 2-0
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 0/3 selections (-3 points)
-Pre-Match 0/1 (-1 point)
-In-Play 0/2 (-2 points)RUNNING TOTAL(s)
In-Play: +1.05 points (4 winners out of 7 selections @ a strike rate of 57.14%). Average overall odds: 2.17. Average winning odds: 2.01Pre-Match: -2.03 points (4/10 @ 40%). Average overall odds: 2.35. Average winnings odds: 2.14
OVERALL: -0.98 points (8/17 @ 47.06%). Average overall odds: 2.28. Average winning odds: 2.06
Fine margins in terms of how the results came about, but that's the game. I tend not to follow the results because life's too short, but seeing as I'm actively tracking them for this little project, it's difficult to ignore things like late, late goals, etc!
Happy with how things stand at the moment. The small loss is irrelevant as it's only been a week and it's all about sticking to the process and seeing how the model performs over a longer period. 100 days almost definitely isn't enough to know whether or not what I'm doing is right, but it's a starting point and hopefully a springboard to encourage me to carry this on for 1,000 days and beyond!
Backing/laying at the odds I do with these two models will generally give me around a 50-55% strike rate, so there will be periods of losing, standing still and a fair share of volatility. I need to embrace that and face it head first if I'm going to stand any chance of reaching my eventual goal.
Next update to follow shortly...
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@Alex-Rendell really good start and I like that you are focussing on the self development aspect and not just the results! Well done.
