100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY
-
I've been trading/betting on football for the last few years at a novice level, with limited success - mostly treading water with small wins and small losses. This "challenge" is as much about accountability and self-discipline as it is about improving results. Too many traders hop between systems, endlessly tweak strategies, and struggle to stick to one thing (myself included!!). I want to break that cycle.
I work full-time, I have a wife and two children under 12, and life can be busy. That means while I'll be as committed as possible to this challenge, it won't always be 100% possible. But I'll show up, stay consistent, and see where this journey takes me. My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility. I want to be earning £1,000 to £2,000 per month on average from football trading within 5 years.
For the next 100 days, I'll be sharing my journey using two structured, data-driven systems. Since September 2023, my In-Play Half-Time System has tracked over 1,600 matches across 25+ leagues, focusing on second-half goal markets when a game is 0-0 at half-time. My Pre-Match System has tracked over 3,000 matches from 50+ leagues, identifying value in goal markets (over/under 2.5, 3.5 etc.) and full-time results, along with many other major markets.
Each morning (where possible), I'll post potential selections based on the data, with final picks shared 10-15 minutes before kick-off. Weekends will be quieter due to time constraints, but I'll aim for consistency during the week.
This is a test of discipline, patience, and trust in the numbers. Feel free to follow along, ask questions, and let's see where 100 days (or more?!) takes us.
-
Wednesday 05/03/25 (DAY 30):-
Nothing likely from the pre-match model as things stand, but there should be a relatively decent amount of action this Friday depending on the odds and perceived value.
Possible in-play bets at half-time if 0-0 and showing value in just a couple of the lunchtime games from Turkey 1. Lig and Indonesia Liga 1 today.
-
Tuesday 04/03/25 (DAY 29):-
-Updating the morning after due to lack of time last night!
Over 1.5 goals (0-0 at HT) in the following:-
Millwall v Bristol City @ 3.10 odds // 0-2
(+2.06 pts)Colchester v Chesterfield @ 3.10 // 1-0
(-1 pt)Port Vale v Harrogate Town @ 3.0 odds // 0-0
(-1 pt)Tamworth FC v Wealdstone @ 3.0 odds // 4-1
(+1.96 pts)2 winners from 4 bets giving a total profit of +2.02 points for the day.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 27/56 @ 48.21% SR (-0.23 points) Average odds: 2.29/Average win odds: 2.12
IN-PLAY: 19/35 @ 54.29% (+4.70 points) Average odds: 2.30/Average win odds: 2.15
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
-
Monday 03/03/25 (DAY 28):-
Fairly busy weekend with a few bets/trades placed that I haven't tracked on here, so I won't be after-timing and adding them now despite some moderate success. As for today, I'd imagine it'll go back to being fairly quiet again as often seems to be the way with these models, particularly on the pre-match side.
Might be some action in the following leagues if 0-0 at HT and showing value:-
Romania Liga 1, Poland Ekstraklasa, Spain La Liga 2, Turkey Super Lig, Dutch Eerste, Portugal Segunda, Indonesia Liga 1 and Israel Leumit.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 25/52 @ 48.08% SR (-2.25 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 17/31 @ 54.84% (+2.68 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.05
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
-
Friday 28/02/25 (DAY 27):-
There are a few potential selections on the pre-match tonight, but most of the action will likely come from the in-play tool if it's 0-0 at half-time and showing value from certain matches across the following leagues:-
Germany (Bundesliga 2 and 3 Liga), Poland Ekstraklasa, Dutch Eerste, Turkey 1 Lig, Saudi Pro League, France Ligue 2 and Israel Leumit Liga.
BET 1: Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Umm Al Fahm (0-0 @ HT) Over 1.5 goals @ 2.66 odds (value in a single goal also) 2-0
+1.63BET 2: Pau v Grenoble (0-0 @ HT) Under 1.5 goals @ 1.75 odds 1-0
+0.74 -
Thursday 27/02/25 (DAY 26):-
Typical Thursday with very little action. One potential half-time bet at the moment is Barrow v Carlisle, if 0-0 at half-time and showing value.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 23/50 @ 46% SR (-4.62 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.04
IN-PLAY: 15/29 @ 51.72% (+0.31 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.03
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
-
Wednesday 26/02/25 (DAY 25):-
Looking quiet again today; only Tottenham v City being an in-play possibility as things stand.
-
Tuesday 25/02/25 (DAY 24):-
TOTALS
OVERALL: 23/50 @ 46% SR (-4.62 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.04
IN-PLAY: 15/29 @ 51.72% (+0.31 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.03
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
TODAY:-
Likely nothing again tonight from the pre-match model.
Just the two in-play possibilities at Brighton and Wolves tonight if 0-0 at half-time and showing value, although other selections may pop up later on.
-
!UPDATE! - Monday 24/02/25 (DAY 23):-
Half-term week was very busy with family life, so I could only post bits and pieces here and there. I've updated my latest figures, as a lot of my tracking over the last week was done on the fly. Now that I'm back at work and into the swing of things again, I can focus properly for a while.
One key thing I've realised is that I probably don't have as much time as I initially thought for trading, especially on busy weekends. I'll continue the 100 day challenge as planned, but I'm definitely leaning towards finding a set-and-forget pre-match strategy, something I can place all at once, maybe around 10am on a Saturday, and just leave them to run without needing to check in throughout the day.
Results-wise, both my in-play and pre-match systems are slightly down, but nothing disastrous. The pre-match is about 5 points down, and the in-play is just over 1 point in the minus after around 50 bets. It's far too early to make any strong conclusions, this challenge is about testing, refining and figuring out what works best for me.
But more importantly, this is about proving whether or not my models work - whether the value displayed within my system translates into long-term success. Constantly tweaking or changing my approach over the 100 days would undermine that. This is as much a test of me, my discipline, and my ability to stick to a consistent approach as it is a test of the system itself. If I keep adjusting things, I won't know if the model works or not - that would be on me, not the system. So, for the full 100 days, I need to stay disciplined, trust the process, ignore the financial aspect, and see it through properly.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 22/49 @ 44.90% SR (-6.23 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.01
IN-PLAY: 14/28 @ 50% (-1.30 points) Average odds: 2.19/Average win odds: 1.99
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
--------------
TODAY:-
Doubt there'll be much happening using the pre-match model tonight, but we might see some in-play action at half-time in Poland, Spain, Israel and Saudi Arabia if 0-0 and showing value.
BET 1: Damac v Al Orubah (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.64 odds // 1-2
(+1.61) -
@Alex-Rendell Opps, apologies, and I expect 10% commission if you use it!
-
@Nikki-HALSALL wrong thread.....although you might've posted a rare winner in here
-
Just 1 tomorrow = will check odds again in the morning but not expecting them to hit the sweet spot.
Israel Ligat Ha'al 24/02/2025 18:00:00 Hapoel Haifa Shmona 1.38
Last 19 picks had 18 winners - not too shabby.
-
Sunday 23/02/25:-
BET 1: Darmstadt 98 v Schalke 04 PRE MATCH over 2.5 goals @ 1.81 odds // 2-0
(-1)BET 2: Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig PRE MATCH over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 odds // 3-0
(+0.83) -
Friday 21/02/25:-
BET 1: Persis Solo v Semen Padang PRE MATCH Over 2.5 goals @ 2.04 odds // 1-1
(-1)BET 2: PSBS Biak Numfor v Persik Kediri PRE MATCH over 2.5 goals @ 2.06 odds // 1-1
(-1)(Big value in BTTS for both games also)
BET 3: Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Acre (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.85 odds // 3-0
(-1)BET 4: Boulogne v Gobelins (PRE MATCH) BTTS YES @ 2.14 odds // 3-1
(+1.12)BET 5: Málaga v Tenerife (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 3.05 odds // 1-0
(-1)** -
Half term week this week as I’m sure a lot of you are aware - will update my progress when I get a chance as I’ve been off all week and busy with family life!
-
Tuesday 18/02/25:-
BET 1: Oldham Athletic v Maidenhead United (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.77 odds // 0-1
(+0.75)BET 2: Southend United v Aldershot Town (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.75 odds // 2-1
(-1) -
Monday 17/02/25:-
BET 1: Arema v PSS Sleman (pre match) over 2.5 goals @ 2.14 odds // 6-2
(+1.12)BET 2: Rizespor v Galatasaray (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 2.18 odds // 1-2
(-1) -
Sunday 16/02/25:-
BET 1: Hatayspor v Alanyaspor (0-0 at HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.92 odds // 1-0
(+0.90 points)BET 2: Eyüpspor v Kayserispor (0-0 @ HT) under 1.5 goals @ 1.71 odds // 1-1
(-1 point)BET 3: Katowice v Piast Gliwice (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.98 odds // 0-0
(-1 point)BET 4: Energie Cottbus v Verl (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.0 odds // 1-0
(-1) -
Friday 14/02/25 (DAY 17):-
A few possible qualifiers on the pre-match side of things this evening, depending on odds around 15 mins before KO, so will keep an eye on those.
As for the in-plays, there's potential action at half-time in Israel, Malaysia, Romania, Poland, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, France, Italy, England & Spain if it's 0-0 and the model shows value.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
Value in under 1.5 goals at half-time in the Sepsi v Hermannstadt game but odds are 1.54 which means I won’t be getting involved (finished 2-3!!)
BET 1: (in play) Red Star v Martigues - under 1.5 goals @ 1.70 odds // 1-0
(+0.69 points) -
Thursday 13/02/25 (DAY 16):-
Nothing likely on the pre-match model for today.
Chance of getting involved in 4 of the Turkey 1. Lig games today/this evening if 0-0 at HT and showing value.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 16/34 @ 47.06% SR (-1.64 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 11/18 @ 61.11% (+3.36 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.04
PRE-MATCH: 5/16 @ 31.25% (-5 points) Average odds: 2.35/Average win odds: 2.05
13/47