100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY
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I've been trading/betting on football for the last few years at a novice level, with limited success - mostly treading water with small wins and small losses. This "challenge" is as much about accountability and self-discipline as it is about improving results. Too many traders hop between systems, endlessly tweak strategies, and struggle to stick to one thing (myself included!!). I want to break that cycle.
I work full-time, I have a wife and two children under 12, and life can be busy. That means while I'll be as committed as possible to this challenge, it won't always be 100% possible. But I'll show up, stay consistent, and see where this journey takes me. My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility. I want to be earning £1,000 to £2,000 per month on average from football trading within 5 years.
For the next 100 days, I'll be sharing my journey using two structured, data-driven systems. Since September 2023, my In-Play Half-Time System has tracked over 1,600 matches across 25+ leagues, focusing on second-half goal markets when a game is 0-0 at half-time. My Pre-Match System has tracked over 3,000 matches from 50+ leagues, identifying value in goal markets (over/under 2.5, 3.5 etc.) and full-time results, along with many other major markets.
Each morning (where possible), I'll post potential selections based on the data, with final picks shared 10-15 minutes before kick-off. Weekends will be quieter due to time constraints, but I'll aim for consistency during the week.
This is a test of discipline, patience, and trust in the numbers. Feel free to follow along, ask questions, and let's see where 100 days (or more?!) takes us.
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@Alex-Rendell hope you have a good celebration tomorrow!
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Friday 07/02/25 (DAY 10):-
Pre-Match potential in the Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld game
this evening;In-Play possibilities come from Israel, Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy, Spain & England (League One)
-It's my son's 12th birthday tomorrow so I won't be posting any Saturday selections (although I may keep track of them and post them on Sunday if I have time, just so I can reflect on the day's action).
BET 1: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa - Under 1.5 goals @ 1.95 odds // 1-0
BET 2: Pre-Match - Sandhausen v Arminia Bielefeld - Over 3.5 goals @ 2.66 odds (value in the home lay also, just for my own reference more than anything) // 1-0
Not a bet but huge value showing for the away win at HT in the Grenoble v Red Star match // 0-0
BET 3: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Volendam v ADO Den Haag - Under 1.5 goals @ 2.14 odds (value also in backing the draw at 2.94 odds, again just for my own future reference) // 1-2
BET 4: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Albacete v Real Zaragoza - over 1.5 goals @ 2.78 odds (home win value at 3.0 odds) // 2-1
BET 5: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Brescia v Salernitana - Draw @ 2.28 odds (value also in under 1.5 goals market but odds too short for my liking) // 0-0
BET 6: In-Play - Mansfield Town v Northampton Town - under 1.5 goals @ 1.71 odds // 0-1
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06/02/25 (DAY 9):-
Quiet day yesterday with nothing coming onto the radar in the end.
Today looks equally as exciting; nothing showing on the Pre-Match model yet but there's possible action in Romania, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and England League Two if 0-0 @ HT and the odds represent value.
Friday should see a decent amount of potential selections...
BET 1: Winterthur v Zurich (0-0 @ HT) back Under 1.5 goals @ 1.92 odds // 0-2
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 0/1 In-Play selections (-1 point)
RUNNING TOTAL(s)
In-Play: +0.05 points (4 winners out of 8 selections @ a strike rate of 50%). Average overall odds: 2.15. Average winning odds: 2.01
Pre-Match: -2.03 points (4/10 @ 40%). Average overall odds: 2.35. Average winnings odds: 2.14
OVERALL: -1.98 points (8/18 @ 44.44%). Average overall odds: 2.26. Average winning odds: 2.06
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05/02/25 (DAY 8):-
As it stands, only the Cluj v Hermannstadt game in Romania and St Gallen v Lugano from Switzerland are potential half-time qualifiers but that could change as the evening progresses.
Nothing showing for the Pre-Match model at the moment.
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04/02/25 (DAY 7):-
Nothing yesterday. Onto tonight:-
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Pre-Match potential selections: One from the Israel Leumit Liga & one from the National League North. (Coleraine v Cliftonville is a possibility but Betfair doesn't seem to like the Northern Ireland Premiership this season!)
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In-Play potentials come from Romania, Israel, Switzerland, England (Championship, League Two & National League) and Scotland. Games must be 0-0 at half-time and also be showing value in the overs/unders markets based on that specific league's model
UPDATE:-
Hapoel Ramat Gan v Bnei Yehuda (0-0 @ HT) - BACK Under 1.5 goals @ 2.10 odds // 2-0
(-1 point)and Hapoel Afula v Hapoel Rishon Lezion (0-0 @ HT) - BACK Over 1.5 goals @ 2.50 odds // 0-1
(-1 point)I'd also backed Over 3.5 goals (pre-match) in the Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Ramat Hasharon game @ 2.64 odds; typed it up on here but forgot to post it! (Anyway, it lost). // 2-0
(-1 point)DAILY TOTAL: 0/3 selections (-3 points)
-Pre-Match 0/1 (-1 point)
-In-Play 0/2 (-2 points)RUNNING TOTAL(s)
In-Play: +1.05 points (4 winners out of 7 selections @ a strike rate of 57.14%). Average overall odds: 2.17. Average winning odds: 2.01Pre-Match: -2.03 points (4/10 @ 40%). Average overall odds: 2.35. Average winnings odds: 2.14
OVERALL: -0.98 points (8/17 @ 47.06%). Average overall odds: 2.28. Average winning odds: 2.06
Fine margins in terms of how the results came about, but that's the game. I tend not to follow the results because life's too short, but seeing as I'm actively tracking them for this little project, it's difficult to ignore things like late, late goals, etc!
Happy with how things stand at the moment. The small loss is irrelevant as it's only been a week and it's all about sticking to the process and seeing how the model performs over a longer period. 100 days almost definitely isn't enough to know whether or not what I'm doing is right, but it's a starting point and hopefully a springboard to encourage me to carry this on for 1,000 days and beyond!
Backing/laying at the odds I do with these two models will generally give me around a 50-55% strike rate, so there will be periods of losing, standing still and a fair share of volatility. I need to embrace that and face it head first if I'm going to stand any chance of reaching my eventual goal.
Next update to follow shortly...
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@Alex-Rendell really good start and I like that you are focussing on the self development aspect and not just the results! Well done.
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03/02/25 (DAY 6):-
+2.02 points so far. Going to start tracking individual P/L from Pre-Match and In-Play models, just so I can compare their performance over time.
In-Play: +3.05 points (4 winners out of 5 selections @ a strike rate of 80%)
Pre-Match: -1.03 points (4/9 @ 44.44%)
Overall: 8/14 @ 57.14%
What have I learned so far? Not a lot, because it's only been five days... But I'm enjoying it and appreciate the engagement so far from the community! The challenge is keeping me disciplined and helping me track my progress, which was always the main aim of this little venture.
Onto tonight; we may have some Pre-Match action in the National League South & Portugal, along with some potential selections using the In-Play model from Indonesia, Greece, Turkey, Israel and the Netherlands.
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02/02/25 (DAY 5):-
BET 1: Sanliurfaspor v Istanbulspor (0-0 @ HT) = 1 point BACK on Under 1.5 goals @ 1.84 odds // 1-0
(+0.82 points)Other potential In-Play matches today come from Poland, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal, Switzerland, Thailand and Costa Rica! That's what I love about this strategy; there's always the possibility of plenty of selections.
BET 2: Kaiserslautern v Preussen Munster (Pre-Match) = 1 point BACK on Over 2.5 goals @ 1.89 odds // 2-1
(+0.87 points)BET 3: Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (Pre-Match) = 0.6 point BACK on Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 odds & 0.4 point BACK on Over 3.5 goals @ 2.72 odds // 1-1
(-1 point)BET 4: Kortrijk v Westerlo (Pre-Match) = 1 point BACK on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.32 odds // 1-2
(-1 point)BET 5: Hannover II v Sandhausen = 0.60 points BACK on Over 2.5 goals @ 1.71
(+0.42 points) & 0.40 points BACK on Over 3.5 goals @ 2.72 odds // 2-2 (+0.67 points)
+0.78 points today. +2.02 points running total
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01/02/25 (DAY 4):-
Ingolstadt v Saarbrücken 0.6 points over 2.5 goals @ 1.88 and 0.4 points on over 3.5 goals at 3.20 odds. 1-0
(-1 point)Barnsley v Burton Albion Under 1.5 goals (half time 0-0 strategy). 1 point @ 1.98 0-0
(+.96 points)Dortmund B v Hansa Rostock over 1.5 goals (0-0 at half time) 1 point at 2.20 odds 0-2
(+1.18 points)Union Berlin v RB Leipzig 1 point Pre-match under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 odds 0-0
(+1.18 points)Zwolle v FC Utrecht 1 point Pre match over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 odds 3-3
(+0.83 points) +3.15 points today. +1.24 points overall -
@Alex-Rendell excellent write up! Following these with interest!
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31/01/25 (Day 3):
We may well have some action today, providing I'm about to post the selections in time!
Pre-match games that could potentially fit the bill are:-
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Wil v Xamax (Switzerland Challenge League) - great value in a first-half goal (FHG) and lay the draw (LTD) tonight, but I'll likely be backing over 2.5 goals (+2.5) if the odds hold;
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Bremen v Mainz (Germany Bundesliga) - I'm looking at a possible FHG OR over 3.5 goals (+3.5);
In-Play games that could qualify for overs/unders if 0-0 at half-time and the odds suit:-
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5 of the 8 Israel Liga Leumit matches kicking off this afternoon (UK time);
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Eyupspor v Sivasspor and Konyaspor v Bodrumspor (Turkey Super Lig);
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Pacos de Ferreira v Leixoes (Portugal Segunda);
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Unirea Slobozia v Dinamo Bucuresti (Romania Liga 1);
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Dordrecht v De Graafschap and Den Bosch v Volendam (Netherlands Eerste);
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Eldense v Granada (Spain La Liga 2);
This list isn't exhaustive; some matches may drop off and others may fall in later on but I'll update as and when I can.
LET'S GO!
BET 1: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Eyupspor v Sivasspor - 1 point BACK on Under 1.5 goals @ 2.12 odds (first-half red card may well put a spanner in the works but I am simply following the historical data)
(+1.09 points)BET 2: In-Play 0-0 @ HT - Pacos Ferreira v Leixoes - 1 point BACK on Over 1.5 goals @ 2.78 odds 0-0
(-1 point)BET 3: Pre-Match - Wil v Xamax - 1 point BACK on Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 odds 2-0
(-1 point)BET 4: Pre-Match - Bremen v Mainz - 1 point BACK on Over 3.5 goals @ 3.25 odds 1-0
(-1 point)RUNNING TOTAL: -1.91 points
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@Alex-Rendell Good effort, Alex, I am doing a similar thing and as Ryan says, sometimes there are good months and sometimes there are not so good months, but it probably evens out in the long run (in the right direction hopefully!)
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@Alex-Rendell Nail on the head there.
Its not supposed to add stress its an additional way of generating money that might be great one month and not so good over the next but over the long run it will even out.
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30/01/25 (Day 2): Two overnight 0-0 @ HT qualifiers missed in Mexico, so another quiet day today on the trading front! Looking much better tomorrow with potential action in Israel, Turkey and Germany.
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@Ryan Cheers Ryan, really appreciate that. That's the aim, to make trading fit around my life and not the other way round. Most of us have been guilty of going all-in too quickly, expecting instant results and we just end up burning out when it doesn't go our way.
This is meant to be about consistency, discipline and long-term growth. I'm hoping that if I stick to the data, stay patient and build gradually, I can make this a sustainable part of my income rather than something that only adds extra stress.
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I am buzzing to read this!!
This is going to be a wicked post to follow along with and wish we could have everybody doing something like this.
What I really love here is that you have done this with you in mind, so many traders come in and don't look at how to make their trading fit their life and then they get disheartened when it doesn't work out.
You've done the opposite and aimed to build it around your life. Top man.
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@Martin thank you. Yeah, financial flexibility and freedom is the ultimate goal - it makes such a big difference!
In terms of the systems themselves, I'm all about value, but I haven't been actively tracking results in terms of profit/loss just yet. Since Sept '23, I've been purely gathering data and testing, entering selections that fit into a certain set criteria. Not every selection that comes up is a "value" pick - in fact, most often aren't - so, it's more about building a dataset to strengthen the reliability of that data over time. The more data I gather, the more accurate the implied odds should be, which will hopefully help identifying actual value.
That's why I'm starting now - I've got almost a year and a half's worth of data, and this challenge is about putting it to the test and seeing where I really stand.
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@Alex-Rendell This is great Alex, I will be following with interest.
