Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC
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Hello
Thanks for this - saw your post and have now started following the same strategy (only from the middle of September - but still up 40 points!). Not getting carried away as there is only a small data set and it's a backing strategy so I am prepared for lots of variance.
Used ChatGPT to find out some other leagues with a high draw percentage over the past 5 years - Ligue 1 without PSG has been promising so far, but Serie A tracking at a loss and Serie B also (am only paper trading Serie B as the odds appear to be lower than the other leagues).
My spreadsheet is attached - been tracking the Prem without Liverpool and City (City because of the number of wins last season, Liverpool because I support them and won't trade on them)
Thanks again for the OP!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
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This weeks Update EPL coming up to doubling up its starting stake and portugal flying after 2 weeks. Spready attached.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx
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@Jonathan-McDaid how does it compare with bookie price? Have you tried asking for a price? Liquidity usually decent on that league near kick off
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Good Morning!
Updated spreadsheet attached profitable week again for both EPL and the Portugese.
I had my first hurdle using this strategy on Betfair with the current liquidity on the Primeira Liga not having enough to offer correct pricing. I will price it up 24h before the first game and see if this firms it up.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
@Jonathan-McDaid nice work!
hope you are feeling better mate
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Sorry guys was wanting to post weekly but got sick last week and missed it but spready attached with EPL and 1 week of Portugal both are in the green nicely.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx
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@nick I haven't started Portugal yet I will start it after the break. I will look at tweaking it in a couple of months and maybe take City and Liverpool out then.
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@Jonathan-McDaid This looks very interesting, I know its early days in the season yet but might I suggest leaving Liverpool and Man City out at least when they are playing at home would boost profits a bit and negate the strange weeks. Not saying that most Liverpool and Man city games even away wont be draws as this weeks results show.Are you doing Portugal also?
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@Alex-Rendell hey Alex I initially started it betting with bet365 and taking their early odds started small 5$ and scaled up when I got profitable enough to stake $50/game they banned me.
Also had Portugal without porto it might have been bet365 odds makers being off the mark early in betting ? But Iām willing to try -
@Jonathan-McDaid can I ask what made you start doing this in the first place? And do you literally bet every single Premier League match 100% of the time? How long have you been doing this for?
Only reason I ask is that I have data from the whole of the last two seasons, which shows that level-stake backing of the draw in every single EPL game, based on Betfair Exchange prices at kick off, would have resulted in a loss of 54.55 points (including 2% commission).
Keen to hear more background around the approach you've taken!
Cheers.
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@Jonathan-McDaid This is the first thing I am backtesting when the footie is done
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@Ryan Yes flat staking 2 to break even roughly or slight loss
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@Jonathan-McDaid Interesting....
22% of the games last season ended in a draw, are you just backing them all?
I think I saw you need what 3 a week to have a profit was it? Take it this is flat staking?
