Simplest Set & Forget strategy in the history of BTC
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Hello everyone !
I am trading and sharing the strategy that got me banned from Bet365. The simplest strategy on BTC.
Strategy: back the draw in every EPL Game
My Spready will be attached weekly.
Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
Here's mine for the end of October
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
46 points up since September when I saw the original post. Serie A is looking a bit ropey - but Serie B has had an amazing week - 9 draws since Monday!
Am using 2% of my total bank each month
Thanks again @Jonathan-McDaid for the original post!
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@Jonathan-McDaid I was thinking that this week! Good work.
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Nice bounce back with 4 draws in the EPL this week looking to get to the double my bank stage and increase stakes in the next couple of weeks.Trading P+L.xlsx
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A shocker in the EPL this week with no draws !!! Hopefully a bounce back this week spready attached.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx
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@Samuel-Barrett I am glad you support Liverpool
amazing season us boys are having so far. Love the control we seem to have now, was looking at some stats at the shots we let teams have and it's scary how we don't let them in the box often. -
Hello
Thanks for this - saw your post and have now started following the same strategy (only from the middle of September - but still up 40 points!). Not getting carried away as there is only a small data set and it's a backing strategy so I am prepared for lots of variance.
Used ChatGPT to find out some other leagues with a high draw percentage over the past 5 years - Ligue 1 without PSG has been promising so far, but Serie A tracking at a loss and Serie B also (am only paper trading Serie B as the odds appear to be lower than the other leagues).
My spreadsheet is attached - been tracking the Prem without Liverpool and City (City because of the number of wins last season, Liverpool because I support them and won't trade on them)
Thanks again for the OP!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fsu5gIQJlhJ3RBTKjS7lW550LHqQmjEGG3aMU7YqpQE/edit?usp=sharing
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This weeks Update EPL coming up to doubling up its starting stake and portugal flying after 2 weeks. Spready attached.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx
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@Jonathan-McDaid how does it compare with bookie price? Have you tried asking for a price? Liquidity usually decent on that league near kick off
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Good Morning!
Updated spreadsheet attached profitable week again for both EPL and the Portugese.
I had my first hurdle using this strategy on Betfair with the current liquidity on the Primeira Liga not having enough to offer correct pricing. I will price it up 24h before the first game and see if this firms it up.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx -
@Jonathan-McDaid nice work!
hope you are feeling better mate
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Sorry guys was wanting to post weekly but got sick last week and missed it but spready attached with EPL and 1 week of Portugal both are in the green nicely.Football Profit & Loss Spreadsheet.xlsx
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@nick I haven't started Portugal yet I will start it after the break. I will look at tweaking it in a couple of months and maybe take City and Liverpool out then.
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@Jonathan-McDaid This looks very interesting, I know its early days in the season yet but might I suggest leaving Liverpool and Man City out at least when they are playing at home would boost profits a bit and negate the strange weeks. Not saying that most Liverpool and Man city games even away wont be draws as this weeks results show.Are you doing Portugal also?
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@Alex-Rendell hey Alex I initially started it betting with bet365 and taking their early odds started small 5$ and scaled up when I got profitable enough to stake $50/game they banned me.
Also had Portugal without porto it might have been bet365 odds makers being off the mark early in betting ? But Iām willing to try -
@Jonathan-McDaid can I ask what made you start doing this in the first place? And do you literally bet every single Premier League match 100% of the time? How long have you been doing this for?
Only reason I ask is that I have data from the whole of the last two seasons, which shows that level-stake backing of the draw in every single EPL game, based on Betfair Exchange prices at kick off, would have resulted in a loss of 54.55 points (including 2% commission).
Keen to hear more background around the approach you've taken!
Cheers.
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@Jonathan-McDaid This is the first thing I am backtesting when the footie is done
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@Ryan Yes flat staking 2 to break even roughly or slight loss
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@Jonathan-McDaid Interesting....
22% of the games last season ended in a draw, are you just backing them all?
I think I saw you need what 3 a week to have a profit was it? Take it this is flat staking?
