2019 Cricket Trading Thread
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aus india green light trading laying india backing draw at mo … also nothing worse than these little shows inbetween breaks happily watch the rain all day ha
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Yes the forecast for Monday has changed and looks pretty good now.
Looking out the window at the moment it’s pretty overcast but no rain at the moment. Forecast saying 70% chance of rain but only less than 1mm so can’t see it upsetting play too much hopefully.
One thing is for sure it will be a lot more pleasant viewing conditions than the stinking hot conditions I endured on Day 2. Long day watching Pujara and Pant put on a batting masterclass.
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Can't see the weather being much of an issue, Aus potentially batting only 70 more overs anyway, Wickets fall in clusters and they just do not recover, reminds me of England last few years, India should cruise from here. 3.75 is a lay on the draw.
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@sean-fitzgerald according to the Beeb should be pretty clear on Monday. Tomorrow could be tricky - only light rain but sometimes that can stop play for an awful long time. One of those days when we could lose a whole session or nothing at all. The good thing is that the pitch is beginning to take turn. I would expect India to bat again, put on quick runs and look to skittle them out on day five. I expect some big price swings over the next couple of days; well worth losing a little sleep!
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It’s come back in a little now which is frustrating but understandable given the rain about.
Some showers forecast for tomorrow and Monday here but doesn’t look like it will be too substantial so hopefully won’t lose too much play. Monday day 5 looks a little more.
I’m still riding but it will be interesting to see what Kohli does in terms of enforcing follow on or not. I suspect he won’t as that is the only possible way Australia could win (albeit extremely improbable). He won’t take any risks to jeapordise being first Indian captain to walk away with a series win over here in 70 odd years.
Will be watching keenly how tomorrow plays out
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It's taken a while..... but good to see the draw price out to 5 now
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Agree....jumped in at $4.40.
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Am loving the lay of the draw at around 4 in the final Test between Australia and India in Sydney. India have been batting positively today and a draw is no use to the Aussies, so will be very surprised indeed if this ends in a stalemate.
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@sean-fitzgerald good research mate and thanks for the info, I imagine a lot of market makers don't consider these stats as much as they should do!
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I’m still new to the trading game but have been dabbling with T20 Big Bash here in Australia.
So far this season the chasing team has won 62.5% of the time (18 games in) which I think is quite significant.
I’ve been cross referencing this with teams who have lost 2 or more wickets in their first 30 runs more than 50% of time and laying them when batting first with a view to getting to backing early for quick green.
NB: I’m a bit limited by the laws here making difficult to go in play. So strategy is lay prior to start (after toss obviously) and place my back bet prior to start and hope it gets matched in play.
Purpose of this post:
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Share some rudimentary info/stats on chasing teams success rate. I know it’s basic and many are probably tracking much more in depth data but I wanted to try and contribute in some way haha.
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Promote some discussion and get some thoughts/feedback.
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Well 300 runs lay come off, NZ was over in with 13 balls .
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Where can money be made in the last day of the test between Aus/India - NZ/Sri
Aus vs India - Cummins currently unbeaten and looking strong, Lyon not as competent but will likely swing the blade for a bit, I don't see Aus knocking the 120 off, infact i would say re-starting tomorrow morning they will be all out within an hour, so where would i go with a trade, 258/8 i would say they don't make 300 runs. Laying 300 runs is 3.95 but likely liquidity will fill up tonight so just hold off if you do. For those with big banks - Draw is a silly price, 40s is too short, tomorrow's weather was always good so we get a result, is it worth laying? It probably is if you consistently lay draws when price is wrong, Aus 80s i would dodge although they will not win, not sure risk reward is great when a good start brings them south, if anything you take them as a trade and hope they hang about for 30 mins, 80s would go into 50s/40s etc and would be some low risk trading.
NZ/Sri
Sri can't win and odds reflect that, questions over Angelo Mathews with his hamstring issue, if i'm Sri i probably don't risk him as he has a long recurring issue . I watched some this morning at 4am and they looked comfortable, i missed the Wagner barrage (seriously underrated bowler) I probably would take some draw in the NZ test, pitch seems to flatten out a little and again look to trade out first hour. We will be looking at rapid odds reduction on the draw if no drama in first hour, 40s into 20s, leave the green on the draw .
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Wouldn't like to bat on this.
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Ooosh
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Happy to lay SA at this price, will struggle chasing this score.
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Interested to see how the Renegades V Strikers game pans out. Both strong bowling line ups that lack depth in the batting departments. Low first innings total could provide great lay value in my opinion, with the team bowling second a red hot chance to win.
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@jack-tossol 2nd inns is where I loose 90% of the time . but yes low odds to have a throw is not a bad strat early in the chase if I was involved be looking at a 10-20c swing in odds to cashout
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had a bit of a dabble laying at low odds, what are your thoughts @Nathan-Bennett?
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@jack-tossol good thoughts . indeed if scorchers massively on top i'd look to drip lay them below 1.3 first innings
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Anyone following the Sixers V Scorchers? Interested to see how this first innings plays out, im not a fan of the sixers batting as a whole but comparatively i like their tail enders, could be a good lay to back at the 7-8 wicket mark.
