2019 Cricket Trading Thread
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@stephen-morfey I echo Simon's words, loved reading this and a great analysis of your performance during trading. Thank you for sharing, this is invaluable for newbies like myself.
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@stephen-morfey great analysis, love reading stuff like this and learning as I’m fairly new to the game. Guess it also shows how quickly emotion can take over when you stake more than you usually would. I have a similar bank and would have been sweating bullets with 20% on the line so fair play to you
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This post is deleted!
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I wrote this yesterday more for myself than anything but hopefully it maybe useful to some one or they can relate to it.
The Virat Kohli Test
Paitence - Trusting the stats and odds at point of bet placement.
Morning of Day 4 in the 4th test match between England and India
England were about 1.8-1.9 after England were bowled out at the end of the 2nd innings - the true odds should have been 1.2 (India needed 245 to win, notoriously bad chasers, expected runs where 180 on cricviz) pre match Eng where 2.0 which was considered value. India not won back to back wins on eng soil since 1986. India have never chased down more than 180 in 17 attempts in England.Made decision to go "big" or win "big" the same as Luke Ridger (although probably much smaller stakes)
Risked £300 to win £850 if England wonMy trading bank has £1500 allocated to cricket trading so this was risking 20% of that to win 57% of my trading bank
The current high odds and my previous trades in the market had built up a position which meant the effective odds for me were now. £300 @ 3.83/1.2 = 321% EV i.e huge! (I should have risked more in hindsight.
Mistake 1- only removing liability instead of full cash out at low odds
All was going well and i was able to remove liability at 1.16 during an umpire review - (in hindsight i should have cashed out here as the odds were now below the perceived odds of 1.2)
At this point i was at £800 profit if eng won for zero risk.
The odds jumped back to 1.28 as the review was overturned. So i just put the £300 liability back on.
Effectively a trade of £300 at 1.28/1.16 110% EVHad i cashed out instead that trade would have been about £1000 @ 1.28/1.16 110%
Reasoning for cash out- it would have been the 4th wicket so there was plenty of the match left and the odds of 1.16 where too low and there should be plenty of further opportunities.
Mistake 2 - getting back in market too early and increasing risk above what I had mentally prepared for in the morning.
I started dripping small backs back in from 1.4 upwards up to about 1.7 increasing my position to £400 risked, for about £1000 return.
Mistake 3 - Fear of not winning when you'd already mentally banked the winnings causing poor decision making.
Viraht kohli then got a decent 4th wicket partnership together and the odds continued to move away from me, india eventually came in to 1.5 before the wicket eventually fell. I sat watching my cashout value drop from £650+ at the start to £250 at which point fear took hold and my scared brain took over and decided to cash out when India was about 1.8. India dropped further to 1.5, temporarily i felt good as I watched the odds continue to drop a further 30 ticks but then the inevitable Virat Kohli wicket came and Eng odds dropped to 1.5
Had i waited a further 30 mins i would have been sat on £1000 on England
I saw sense pretty quick and had a couple more opportunities to pull it back for the next couple of wickets and ended up +£480 risk free on England.
Felt pretty bad even though i'd made £480 as with out the mistakes of the final day I would have easily made £1000-£1500, even if id just left it alone and gone out for the day and not traded i would have made £850
Lesson learned and at least it was still profitable, on to the next one.
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@luke-ridger said in Summer Cricket Thread:
Thanks all, good win that. Onto the next one.
Great Profits this weekend, hope for more again for the 5th test on Friday.
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Thanks all, good win that. Onto the next one.
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Thankfully seen the back of Virat, looks to be within Englands grasp.
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@martin-futter it's like the ridiculous time delay - helps those Betfair traders hoover up all the spare money!
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@stephen-morfey nice spot.... hadn't really been doing that before this match, but it's been nicely profitable for me here. Definitely worth keeping a close eye on it.
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For me, everything hinges on this partnership. If England break it soon they win comfortably I reckon. Cricviz says England should be 1.33 - and for once I agree with them.
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its an edge hopefully here to stay !
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@stephen-morfey not convinced they should suspend anything in football, it's up to us to bet it, like with cricket and tennis
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I like the fact Betfair don't suspend the market during the umpire reviews like they do with VAR in football.
I removed all my liability at 1.16 during the review and was able to go back in at 1.29 once it had been overturned for effectively a free bet.
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Dodgy decision
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so good . thanks for coming
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like taking candy from a baby
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wow pitch effect totally wouldn't wanna be a batter
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boom!
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Boom there we go!
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Wicket will feel like India are chasing 350, market disagreeing
