Filter and one new criteria with help off GPT Chat!

Patrik Mellqvist

Filter!

How to Reason and Create Guidelines for a Well-Structured Filter

Understanding market expectations and our own expectations, and finding an opening where the best of both worlds can be realized. That seems optimal to me.

Illustration:

Trading Situation:
No goals between 10–20 minutes.

We want the market to appreciate a goal-rich match. To ensure our trading opportunity is not obvious and to avoid slow price movements with minimal returns.

We want appealing conditions for no goals between 10–20 minutes using statistics, and if possible, real-time data.

Filters:

Cooperative Indication Filter
(Desired Value for the Trading Opportunity)

5% or fewer goals between 10–20 minutes.

Historical Patterns Between Teams
Head-to-Head (H2H) Statistics: Analyze previous meetings between the teams. Some matches tend to be goal-rich or goal-poor depending on rivalry or playing style. H2H data can provide insights into the likelihood of goals during specific time intervals.
Importance of the Match:
Is it a decisive match in the league or cup? In crucial matches, teams tend to play more cautiously (fewer goals) or go for the win (more goals), depending on their needs.
Formation Changes:
The team formations also impact goal chances. For example, a defensive 5-3-2 setup is more likely to lead to goal-poor periods.

Neutral Estimation Filter
(More or Less Optimal Value for the Trading Opportunity)

% rate of 0–0 results in the first half.

Weather Conditions:
Heavy rain, strong winds, or other adverse conditions can affect the game. Bad weather often decreases goal chances and should be considered as part of the filtering process.

Contradictory Indication Filter
(Market Expectations and Counter-Indication for the Trading Opportunity)

Under 2.5 goals market between 2.02 to 2.98.

Market Liquidity:
Higher liquidity can indicate a stronger consensus on the market direction. If the market shows low liquidity or large price swings, it may indicate uncertainty.

Adaptive Behavior Filters
( When or if the dynamics of the match change)

Red Card
If it happens before or during the trading period, then end the trade regardless.

Real-Time Filter
(If Possible)

Match Reading & No Win or Loss

1 shot on goal is 1 point.
1 shot off target is 1 point.
1 corner is 1 point.

If 3 points before 10 minutes or during the trade between 10 to 20 minutes, close the trade.
Or 2 shots on goal.

Thanks for the tip with GPT Chat which provided interesting suggestions. Some were familiar, and others were new.

For instance, Adaptive Behavior Filters got me thinking about red cards.

If it happens before or during the trading period, then end the trade regardless.

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist I knew a trader who did very well trading this time period as well in matches, just to add to this chat.

His goal was to make £10 a day and he ended up making a lot more than that.

Patrik Mellqvist

@Martin said in Filter and one new criteria with help off GPT Chat!:

@Patrik-Mellqvist team news I guess would be similar to formation changes. Other than history between teams (or head to head as we say), I've been saying the other things for years so it's interesting it says that!

Well, I find out the hard way

Any suggestion to add ???

I am satisfied with my analysis and estimation filter!

Martin

@Patrik-Mellqvist team news I guess would be similar to formation changes. Other than history between teams (or head to head as we say), I've been saying the other things for years so it's interesting it says that!

Patrik Mellqvist

@Martin said in Filter and one new criteria with help off GPT Chat!:

@Patrik-Mellqvist I've always thought that, is that what Chat GPT suggests?

@Martin

No

It is the creation of my thinking to get terms for value for the trading situations.

I invented this criteria by myself...

Cooperative Indication Filter
Neutral Estimation Filter
Contradictory Indication Filter
Real-Time Filter

That is my thinking and not GPT Chat

I just asked GPT Chat to suggest other solutions for my criteria.
And GPT Chat suggested - Adaptive Behavior Filter -
When the dynamics change during the match.

And then my tough was RED CARD from that suggestion.

And GPT Chat suggested the following conditions for my criteria.

Historical Patterns Between Teams
Importance of the Match:
Formation Changes

Weather Conditions:

Market Liquidity:

All other parameters are my creation and I am happy with my filter with good and deep quality and understanding of game theory aspect.

Don't you not agree?

Martin

@Patrik-Mellqvist I've always thought that, is that what Chat GPT suggests?