Reflect on existing filters & results & match other strategis using the same data/stats

[Patrik Mellqvist]

This is not an complete topic i just want to mention something intressting that i explore to extand my trading portfolio and might inspire some one to do somehting similiar.

One method that needs two goals is the old correct score method 60/40.
Ben has an video about it and i have the full package with advance strategies.

But i like to start with basics and see how the original preform and advance from there as it give you a better understanding behind the mechanism that make an selection filter and strategie to work togheter in harmoni.
You can find the video here that describe the basics

So the following filters and sheets are intressting, my opinion, Thomaz lay O1,5 results and the other O1,5 results filters - but there is something else and maybe much more effective then around 72% strike ratio.
I run Garys SHG into GPT chat to calulate the strike ratio for one goal and the results was amzing 96,97% now i will calulate the overal results for O1,5 and my estimation and educated guess is that the results will be over 80% as only the FH strike ratio is 72% and second half above 80% so if we combine both there might be some magic number comparing to the other two O1,5 filters, but that is one educated guess that i will look up after this post.

Another angle to make - maybe higher return of odds with the Set & Forget method Lay 01,5 into another maybe effective set and forget method is to do or test the follwoing, this is on my to do list, as it has an hybrid option for a free bet and reduce overal loses comparing to the original.

Also mobile friendly.

You know Ryans split stake where he make two bets between two time odds/timeintervalls and cash out for a profit if a goal between 30 to 70 min mark.

Now lets say you use the existing filter and pick a game and watch the back odds for O1,5.
I look at a game yesterday and the starting odds was 1,15 to back.
But we would like higher odds so we can place a bet 25 ticks higher and then continue doing so for three more bets and click on keep and forget about the Set & Forget.
Inresments.
This is reverse to laying.

Now lets see the averag odds if we get two goals in the middle or one middle and one late or two late.

1,40
1,65
1,90
2,15

And we add them togher and split them by four to see the median odds value if all match.
Not to get the true odds for the game but what kind of estimation the odds could land on depnding on when the goals are scored.

1,775 and anything less that that would be expected odds depending on goal timings.

0-0 and 1-0 and 0-1 would give us an loss and we would need two goals to win.
An early goal would not match the first bet, but if the second goal comes in the middle or late the first back odds will be matched.
If two early goals the bets will not get matched and there is no bet taken, so no loss.

Now with little as possibal trading action with the Set & Forget approch, call it hybrid.
We can avoid 1-0 and 0-1 loses and still win as usally with two goals scoring.
We just pick up our mobile phone when a goal is scored and create an free bet.
Summary 0-0 loss 1-0 and 0-1 scratch trade 2 goals a win.

I belive that Thomaz or the other O1,5 or Garys SHG filters will produce a winner, but that is my educated guess and need some hard core testing and if the ROI will be greater or less then Thomaz strategi can i not speculate about - but its alternative for an hybrid solution to reduce loses and maybe get slight higher odds is for me intressting options.

That is two strategies that i will test and mayb some one find this intressting using existing filters and spreadsheets to test with other angles and strategis that migh work as well or maybe better.

Also there is the feeling that we like and feel comfortable with out strategi and find our self in some degree of comfortzone, that is how i reflect on things.
And why search for new filters from scratch when there are existing working ones, better to use them and improve or get inspiration for creation with new filters.

Cheers

[Martin]

@Patrik-Mellqvist interesting stuff keep us updated!

[Patrik Mellqvist]

Last note today and then back to simulations.
Garys SHG has 85,13% for O1,5 goals

So my estimation and tought was correct.

More details, break even odds 1,1746
EDIT 2024-05-24 - Also check the O 0,5 with an amazing 96,97%

Cheers