Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software
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Italy Serie A
Atalanta scored 53,7% goals second half
Napoli scored 65,5% goals second halfCurrent season
Now we add them togher 53,7 + 65,5 = 119,2
Now we split the 119,2 into two and get 59,6%Summary
Strike ratio for Atalanta vs Napoli second half goals is 59,6%
- So i want to create an filter criteria that only shows games where there has been 60% or above goals in the second half -
Can some one explain how i do that setting with stats-software!
Many Thanks Patrik From Sweden
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@Patrik-Mellqvist ok so you have completely different filters that is why the selections you expect are not showing.
'H2 over 0.5' means over 0.5 in the second half (either team in the match could score)
'Scored' means the specific team would have to have scored, not either team in the match, so much less chance a team scores 60% of the time, than either team scores 20%.You need to use the same metric for both filters if you want to get the matches pop up on both. So for example you can choose 'Home' 'Scored in H2' rather than 'H2 over 0.5'.
Hope that makes sense.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
What is the filter called? I will take a look at it and see why it's not getting that game.
Thanks, Martin you are super
But have two trades now and get back tomorrowMany Thanks, Martin
Now you can check these two filters
TEST
That one has the Overall setting and only has one selection today.Alt 2 SHG Home Fav
That one has the original settings and all 4 games today qualify with the valuesSo option one has 1 game validated
So option two has 4 games validatedAnd the filters I made are working as expected with same strike ratio as BTC SHG Filter
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@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
What is the filter called? I will take a look at it and see why it's not getting that game.
Thanks, Martin you are super
But have two trades now and get back tomorrowMany Thanks, Martin
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@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
@Patrik-Mellqvist does your original filter show that selection right now?
Yes, I have two selections today and on of them is the one posted above.
Did not show up with the Overall Filter.Cheers
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@Patrik-Mellqvist does your original filter show that selection right now?
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@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
@Patrik-Mellqvist no what I am saying is if you set both to 60% individually they will both have 60%+ so you won't get a situation of 45% for away team, which I'm guessing you do not want?
@Martin I tested and compared and Overall is not showing any selections - but my original filter does - I checked all values and they checked and confirmed that all settings are the same with both filters - the only difference is that my original use is equal to or greater than 20% and give me values that I can add in my head and see if they become 120 - 90 - 60 using home and away values separately as mention above.
Yes, that would be nice to use one simple rule to get the overall % from both Home and Away but stats software is not performing that way - maybe misunderstanding on my part or my side of the coin ...
Note I added played Matcher 5 or more to the first filter but it doesn't show in the picture
And 76% strike ratio with 60 to FT with BTC - SHG Filter and my assumption is the same with My SHG Filter - so 3 x SHG with any score line or 3 x Set & Forget with 1.4+Here is a picture of the Overall and Original Filter
OVERALL
ORIGINAL
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@Patrik-Mellqvist yes you can combine them if you wish for 45% to be fine, just select overall 60%
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@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
@Patrik-Mellqvist no what I am saying is if you set both to 60% individually they will both have 60%+ so you won't get a situation of 45% for away team, which I'm guessing you do not want.
Well is the total of two - is that worse than 60+ each - that is the final question ...
Some other professionals do the calculation differently.
Where one team - either home or away can have a lower strike ratio - but the total together becomes 60+But I always listen to you Martin and your opinion - so what is your conclusion and opinion?
- do you feel that is wrong and will perform less accuracy where you estimate total between two teams
- do you prefer that each shall has 60+ each to have valid accuracy
Cheers Patrik
Cheers Patrik
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@Patrik-Mellqvist no what I am saying is if you set both to 60% individually they will both have 60%+ so you won't get a situation of 45% for away team, which I'm guessing you do not want?
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@Martin said in Getting the right settings with SHG using the stats-software:
'If the summary of both % from both teams together becomes a 60% chance SHG or above, then I have a qualifier.'
to do this select 'home and then do another one with 'away' that way both will have to have 60%+ to qualify. same for Over 1.5 & 2.5.
Bare in mind the stats are based on home results for the home team and away results for the away team.
I think I understand - and that is the limit with the stats software - because Home could have 75% and Away 45% summary 120% and divide by 2 and we get exactly 60%
But if I understand you correctly you suggest making Home equal to or greater than 60% for the second half and the same with Away - that is a compromise and not a solution if I understand you correct and not make misunderstanding.
So my conclusion and hybrid solution to get exactly what I am looking for is to do the quick head calculation as the magic number between Home/Away is 120+ and above
That has to be made manually and mentally easy and quick to execute.So Home criteria should be the overall % for one goal second half.
Same for Away.
Then I get the % values for both and add them together and if the total sum is 120+ you have a qualifier and mark those selections and export filter.
Same for criteria two and three with the same approach.I wrote this just to be clear that I don't accept software limits to compromise filter settings as that makes several selections vanish and that is not a good approach.
Feel I learned a lesson from this that some filter settings should not be set in stone if you miss out on important parameters that not should be ignored.That is my take on things and my opinion.
Others might think differently and have other opinions.Summary first category value 120+
Summary second category value 90+
Summary third category value 60+Got two selections with a solid SHG filter
One for Home fav with odds at 2 or below
One for Away fav with odds at 2 or belowI am satisfied with the filter setup.
Cheers Patrik
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'If the summary of both % from both teams together becomes a 60% chance SHG or above, then I have a qualifier.'
to do this select 'home and then do another one with 'away' that way both will have to have 60%+ to qualify. same for Over 1.5 & 2.5.
Bare in mind the stats are based on home results for the home team and away results for the away team.
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Hello - I hope all is good -
I know that sometimes my writing is like mud - but English is not my cup of tea
Today I will share one filter that I assume and know has been proven to work with the same extant as the BTC SHG goal filter - but I don't have the stats to back up my claim.
But trust my instinct and the sources behind it.I want help with the filter's first, second, and third criteria.
SHG Chance above 60%
Over 1,5 goals chance above 90%
Over 2,5 goals chance above 60%
The Favourite Under 2,0 at kick-off in match oddsSo if I go to the soccer stats website to get these stats manually I do the following.
If the summary of both % from both teams together becomes a 60% chance SHG or above, then I have a qualifier.
Team A has 64,5% goals scored in the second half
Team B has 60% of goals scored in the second halfThen we add them together 64,5% + 60% = 124,5
Then we divide them and get 62,25% second-half goals %Same for criteria two and three ...
And this should be based upon the last 8 played matches.
If you think differently you can add suggestions or if stats software uses the last 10 automatically.Hope this is clear.
To prevent this post from being mud - I will try to also give a clear message of what my intentions are so others if they want can test or do the same.
5 Set & Forget Strategies with the daily routine
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BTC SHG Filter and Set & Forget with 1,2+ odds at HT
Just back at 1,2+ and let run - if taken is taken - if goal before bet will vanish.
Minimum stake first 100 trades then validate and estimate results. -
Alternative (2) SHG Filter and Set & Forget with 1,2+ odds at HT
Just back at 1,2+ and let run - if taken is taken - if goal before bet will vanish.
Minimum stake first 100 trades then validate and estimate results. -
Same approach with Late Goal "Any Score Line"
Odds 1,4+ at HT let it run - if taken - if goal before bet will vanish.
Minimum stake first 100 trades then validate and estimate results.
Note - this I am going to automate with BFBM where I will put in games manually and let the bot run and do the placed bets
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I have made a post about the Lay O3,5 with backing U2,5 with 80% of the stake and 20% split on the correct score lines 2-1 and 1-2 - and decided to try to code this into BFBM but is complicated for a beginner so that is on my to-do list.
So this option will be made manually with 10 stakes as the variance is smooth and not erratic. -
I am not sure about Lay U1.5 Thomaz as I have not seen or read recent updates other than Martin mentioning something towards is not performing as it has done before, but I could be mistaken.
Consider running this manually with a minimum stake to validate and estimate after 100 to confirm or skip.
Cheers Patrik
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@Adam I belive i am correct from the sorce where i get the information, i get daily selections using FHG+SHG with overal 80%
If they would be 80% each it would not become practical filter, so my assumptions are that the settings are correct.Many Thanks Patrik
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"Overall scored both halves % >= 80" will filter on matches with at least 1 goal in both halves by any team. Is that what you're looking for?
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@Patrik-Mellqvist I would agree with Martin here, first 4 look good, I think the last one might be a bit restrictive though. Adam will clarify for us though.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist first four look spot on
I'll tag @Adam on the last one as I've never used both halves
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Hello i would like to know if i set up the following filter in the right way.
@Martin @Matt-Wood @Ryan
O1,5 Goals estimation filterOver 0.5 > 100%
Over 1.5 > 90% (Or Higher)
Over 2.5 > 60% (Or Higher)
Over 3.5 > 35% (As high as possible)
FHG + SHG > 80% (Not sure about his part and will update later today if each 80% or togheter 80%)My settings with stats software!
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Thanks for the help
take a little time to get used to the stats-software ...Cheers
