Zero trading knowledge to profitable strategy in 6 months
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@Wayne-Thomas I now use graphs on mine and you are right they really help show the variance and whether or not it is actually concerning! They are prebuilt into the horse racing strategies and they are my go to on the results page!
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@Wayne-Thomas This is great! Do you have a screenshot of it you could share?
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@Simon-Bates Really great work! I have been on a similar learning curve this year too. At times the data collection has almost been a full-time job but I now have two strategies locked and loaded for the new football season. I have much more confidence in them because I have far more knowledge of how they 'should' behave throughout the season and a means to compare any patterns that emerge.
It really does help to have a chart and another thing I'd recommend is inserting a trend line. That way you can see when your strategy is performing above or below the trend, which helps with the inevitbale dip back towards the trendline when you've have a good run of results. I feel like it helps me to mentally prepare for any incoming bad variance and know that it's just part of how the strategy performs. Having it in a visual form is a much more intuitve way of apprectiating the ups and downs of the strategy.
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@Simon-Bates Amazing response, you know I am going to follow up again don't you?
... I mean I even took notes so I wouldn't miss any of the points I wanted to raise...
I LOVE the idea of the chart, thats a great idea because then you can actually see the needle moving, great idea that. I am going to be telling people to do that.
Just a tip on the copy paste thing, I have been there a few times, I use clipboard history pro (free version) as a chrome extension and it lets you pull back the things you copied and cut
saved my arse loads of times.Nail on the head with the quick money statement, I think deep down that's what a lot of people (although they won't admit it!) want to do with trading, they think this would be amazing what watch some sport and make some money on it?! I could do that. Without realising what goes into this to make it work.
My Q's...
When you mention you should have stuck with one, why didn't you?
Why do you think you are more disciplined now?
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Thank you @ryan, you're right, there were times when I just couldn't be arsed doing it, it got so repetitive but I kept a running bank balance next to my paper traded results and I could see on the chart, that the strategy was moving 2 steps forward, 1 step back, but if you look at this chart you can see it was going in the right direction for me, so this gave me the encouragement to keep going.
At one stage while going through my data I highlighted some colums I wanted to sort out, looking for ways to adjust which trades to choose that would make my profit higher, but I tapped 'cut' by accident on google sheets instead of 'copy' didn't realise my mistake till after I'd put the cut data onto another sheet and sorted it out, the next day I was horrified cos I had 3 weeks of data missing which I couldn't go back cos I'd 'cut' it instead of 'copy' absolutely gutted me, luckily I have 5 different versions of this strategy on spreadsheets so I was able to go back and put the data back in, but I had to do each game individually and it took me nearly 2 weeks to sort it cos I still had my daily results and odds to record.
I've found ways of sorting all my data collection out now so I spend less time doing it while still gathering all I need, it's still time consuming but not as bad as when I first started collecting it.There have been times I've asked for help from BTC and the community and I've hesitated a few times, worrying about asking probably the questions all noobs ask and not wanting to keep annoying everyone by continually asking things, but there's so many on here who know what I need to know I just want to pick their brains.
My data is always there now and I can go through it anytime I think of ways to improve my profit, I'm still recording results and odds, that will never stop cos it'll just make my data more valuable.
What do I wish I'd realised sooner?
That I couldn't make profit with zero knowledge of trading, I'd trade with real money on things I'd seen on here with no luck, I'd read about other people's strategies and lose money trying them, I was just trying to make quick money without research, I've learnt that other people's strategies are tailored for them, sure you can grab ideas from them but collect data before trying them.
Also I wished I'd stuck to one strategy instead of trying multiple ones, if I had just concentrated on one I reckon I'd be further down the road on my journey, and saved a few quid too
I'm at the stage now where I'm enjoying this cos I understand far much more now, there's been times when I thought about stopping cos, wasn't seeing any money coming from it, but realised you gotta put the hard work in at the start before seeing any fruits of your labour.
I can relax that tiny, tiny bit now and start looking to add another strategy to my portfolio, I've been collecting data again for another one I've been making, knowing what I need to do now helps with starting another one.
I'm far more disciplined and strict on myself now, no more stupid punts here and there, no more trying stuff without research, my bank is only for my strategy's rules, nothing else until I'm happy with another strategy I've developed. -
This is amazing.... I am actually blown away by this and I got a lot of takeaways from what you said here.
Number 1
You took the time to collect the data even though it's a huge pain in the arse and I bet at times you wanted to rip your eyes out. But you stuck with it, the result... you were moving forward, getting data.What you have now is as you call it your bible, you have the data which you can tweak and track. This takes commitment. Amazing stuff.
Lesson for all: Don't sit on the sideline, don't track for a week or a month, track for a long period even when you don't want to. Then you will have a dataset - it's how you move up a gear. Without doing this you will never be the best trader you can be.
Number 2
You asked for help, you got it.
One of the things we have always tried to do here is help people and help them get what they need to make their life easier. You asked and Adam helped with a formula that made your life easier.
Lesson for all: ASK it doesn't matter what the ask is, if you are stuck we might just be able to help.
Number 3
You looked at the data and then carried on learning, you see the hard bit is the collecting the data. You had done that, then what you did was look at it, see what you spotted and carried on learning. People want to get better at trading all the time, yet what they fail to realise is this... they think to get better at trading is about being able to trade on the exchange better and get in and out better.
Getting there? It takes what you did, look at the data, take the learning you have an apply it with things like odds ranges etc...
Lesson for all: Look at the data, see what you can glean from it. Apply what you've learnt.
Number 4
I love this one so much because I have been banging on about my barbell method of taking one strategy and making it work and then getting it to make you more money from the same strategy and same level of work you are already doing.
So you knew you were making money, you questioned that. How can I make it more effective? Started looking at some what if's... those led you down the road to find out the answer.
Lesson for all: When you have a profitable strategy start asking questions on how to make it more profitable. You've got the data now to see whether your ideas would have initially held up, then you can forward test it.
I have a question for you now @Simon-Bates, now you are where you are what do you wish you had of realised sooner, what was the lightbulb moment that made you track the data?
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@Simon-Bates outstanding work and just goes to show what can be achieved! Well done mate, keep us updated
