In-Play Scalping/Time Decay
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I was wondering if anyone scalps in-play markets (Any Sport!) and how they like to do it, best practice etc.?
I’ve been dabbling with gaining a tick or two for small gains and not doing too bad backing to then lay.
I’ve been watching various markets and times within the match to find what and where the points of least risk are.
Higher end unders goal expiring markets are ones I’ve targeted mostly.
Expiring match odds markets look good too, that is backing the winning team late game or half then laying. For this I’d target a team thats odds on and looking fairly sure of taking the win.
I’ve tried the pre-match up a tick, down a tick, but very often find I don’t get matched. Tried tennis too and the markets seem more static. There is obviously far less risk pre-match so would be good to find a steady investment project to build.
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS no, just scalping for a tick or two for small profit. For example back 1.20 and lay 1.19.
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@Chris-King you referring to the Ryans
split stake? -
I will add my 2-cents to this topic - i want some degree of stats value and in-play value if i am going to let the price drift and cash out for a small profit.
I think Martin made an video - did not watch it yet - but on my to do list.
For example you look at time-intervalls after 10 min - i think in Martins video between 15 to 30 min mark.
Then you can watch the in-play action/statistics and see if the stats % value for goal-timings between that time intervall is true or at least have the estmimation.For example if 5% or less goals between 10-20 min mark is good value but you need more parameters.
Lets say you set 1 point for Shots On Target and 1 Point for Shots Off Target and 1 Point For Corners.
That i really all you need and that matters.So 15 Points within the first 15 min mark will indicate good tempo match and action.
And you want the opposite as you don't want goals between for example 10-20 min mark.So lets say at most 3 Points total where you only allow 1 Shot On Target, if two you trade out.
But the others can come in any 3 point combination.Then you have for example 2 Points and slow tempo and slow action with little points.
That match reading with live in-play stats and has value and will give strong estimation of no goal when you enter the trade at 10 min mark and watch the game in-play stats for 10 min, any 3 point and you trade out.Those both values have good and nice estimation value when scalping.
This can be done with any time-intervalls and check any goal timings with any matches.
And you want some degree of odds price that indicate the oppoisite as you want a nice drift downwards when scalping.So all that is three parameters to watch at when scalping, my opinion, maybe Martin can add some thing to this or post the video i reffereing to.
Cheers
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@Tony-Hastie Hi, thanks for this! Great, I’ll have a watch of it.
Been persisting with the scalping on the pre-match side, again following Ryans strategy video. Mainly football but a few tennis matches following the same strategy rules and i’m already starting to get a better feel for it. Using a £10 bank/stake for this and achieving over 1% a day (stick that in a compound interest calculator) so far including losses. Being a complete novice to this style of trading I’m feeling optimistic.
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@Chris-King yeah, just the ATP games. Tracked down a vid that Ryan did that will help with game selection...
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@Tony-Hastie I’ve not heard of it described in that way but I’d say it’s like the tennis version of scalping. Sounds interesting. I’ve contemplated it but never given it a try so may have to. Getting in and out for smaller gains as you mention could be something. Do you do this on ATP only where holding serve is more consistent? Thanks.
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@Chris-King if it works then that's great just be prepared for if it doesn't in terms of not busting out
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@Chris-King Would Back the server in tennis be considered scalping? I do it every now and then if theres nothing else on and its at a convenient time. If you choose your server wisely it can go really well. I generally stay in until the server wins the game(or out for a loss at 0-30, 15-30 or 30-40) but there would be nothing stopping you getting out after a point or 2 for a smaller gain if that way inclined...
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@Martin Yeah it is hence me pondering the risk management. Inevitably a market is going to go against anyone no matter how diligent they are. I will probably have to work on the pre-match approach.
Having now said what I did initially about tennis, I created a BTC filter like the football equivalent @Ryan demonstrates in the strategy and got a 4 tick swing doubling my approx daily target already!
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@Chris-King sounds a little risky if a goal goes against you, I tried something similar and remember getting burnt a couple of times on short odds backs late on.
