The exit target tool isn't accurate
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This especially seems to be the case when you ask it to close your trades - aiming for a target of 10 ticks in a back bet - after a certain amount of time (for example, 30 seconds post actual race start).
The results breakdown shows things like horses with a BSP (which I ask it to take) of 375 being cashed out for prices like 2.3 - impossible within 30 secs and not the 10 ticks that I asked for. Why is this happening? It's providing inaccurate results.
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@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.
These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.
We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.
Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.
Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.
I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.
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@Adam The name of the strategy is 'Newcastle'. You'll notice I am asking for it to target 10 ticks but in many cases, it's getting out for more than 10 ticks when the breakdown is analysed.
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@Adam said in The exit target tool isn't accurate:
@Patrick-Murphy: As Martin says, I need examples to be able to look into this. Please at least tell me the name of the strategy which you think is incorrect.
Currently none of your saved strategies have an exit target of 10 ticks and none of them have any exit time restriction.
@Adam copied from PM:
An example would be: Newcastle, January 4, 2023. Race time: 12.50.
Horse name: Endofastorm.
His BSP: 276.83.I took the BSP in my strategy, and set a target of 10 ticks and to exit within 30 secs of the "actual" race time (which was 12.54).
However it's showing the exit time as 12:56 and an exit price of 1.01, which is impossible given what I instructed it to do.
If you put in these instructions, I'm sure you'll find the same results.
Ideally, I want a scenario where it tells me what my profit/loss would be no later than 30 secs into the race.
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@Patrick-Murphy: As Martin says, I need examples to be able to look into this. Please at least tell me the name of the strategy which you think is incorrect.
Currently none of your saved strategies have an exit target of 10 ticks and none of them have any exit time restriction.
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@Patrick-Murphy please give some examples as I asked for earlier when I replied to your email, without them it's impossible to investigate. thanks
