Betting bank calculator
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Hi
I've been looking at how to calculate a betting bank for a particular strategy and thought I'd see what you guys do.. From the horse software I know the average odds, strike rate etc. The Kelly Criterion seems a logical basis to work out my bank/number of points stake but any advice would be very welcome.
Cheers
Kevin -
@Martin I'm really looking for a standard approach to calculating my stakes as a percentage of bank across various strategies (rather than based on a specific strategy). Generally I'm backing but some lay strats.
So for example, one strategy might have a 4% strike rate, odds range 20-100, average odds 38, longest losing run 133 and an ROI of 24%. I know I'll need to ride out long losing periods and my gut feel is I'd want at least a 200 point bank, probably more. If I plug the above into a basic Kelly calculator it gives me 1.41% as the 'Fraction of bankroll to wager' which equals a 70 point bank. That's way too low in my view.
2nd scenario - 24% strike rate, average odds 8, longest losing run 22 and an ROI of 37%. The basic Kelly calculator gives 13.14% as my stake %age (!) but my feel is this would work with a 100 point bank.
I've seen Kelly calculators with options to add multiples for a more cautious bank size (BFBM has a 'Divisor') and maybe I just need to use that but adjust the Divisor based on the average odds?
I've always used a level stakes approach and that's probably why I'm struggling with the percentage of bank that Kelly calculates. I also need to adjust to the percent of bank betting approach rather level stakes
Anyway, any thoughts from others with more experience using a percentage approach will be very welcome
Cheers -
@Kevin-Pepper are you backing or laying, what is the variance like?
