BTC Second Half Goal (Member Filter) Results/Stats, if you like goals!
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I’ve been tracking the results and stats of the BTC SHG Member filter. Here is the progress I’ve made so far. With the help of @Greg-Mitchell I’ve been able to make a start recording the historic results from July 2023.
Definitely a very strong filter for FHG and SHG.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H55tpFF907k9LmM7GJIodQxqKyGWvTnEUXtWXrwYXfI/edit?usp=sharing
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Spreadsheet updated up to 19/08/2024 so now one years worth of results tracked (just under 13 months), that’s 622 matches.
Bear in mind the results I have tracked WON’T BE ALL the selections there ever was as some drop in/out of the BTC filter according to a selection’s Betfair odds fluctuations.
I generally get my daily selections from the odds filter in the morning between 06:00-11:00 depending on the day and what I’m doing, so will miss any selections after this time frame, however on the odd occasion during summer league seasons I will check and add any selections available, which can catch the odd overnight/early morning USA, South American, Japanese and South Korean matches but generally I believe I catch the vast amount of daily selections in the morning.
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@Ryan said in BTC Second Half Goal (Member Filter) Results/Stats, if you like goals!:
@Patrik-Mellqvist This is really interesting, so I am getting this right the odds you are backing this at is 1.24/1.25?
On those leagues with a strike rate of 87.92%?
@Ryan this is the testing blueprint of the statistical results from season 2022/2023 and one among several criteria is that the O2.5 Goals Markets starting price before kick-off should be a minimum of 1.8 - in real life that price will have other values and higher values with some game selection and the result will be higher odds than 1.2+ as my checking with in-play exchange software show with some examples 1.24 but then with around 1.8 O2.5 but if you have 1.97 then the odds for the current half time score line will be higher then 1.24
Gary's SHG Filter gave the hint of 1.2+ and I checked the match and comparing with the strike ratio.
The main idea behind this is that one of my winning core methods will use this set-up for optimal performance of quality trades and not quantity trades.
So by accident, I discovered the price match on the current goal market when the main focus was on finding a solution for my trading method.So getting the best out of two options.
Cheers
EDIT
I tested this with O2.5 at 1.8 and that all had the next market at 80+ for further investigation.
There is an even more slim and strict filter other than pinpointing the best performance.
Where you create the O2.5 goals to be at higher values and then at Half Time get 1.2+ even higher.
Because the match-up will be closer to even in match odds using the filter 3.5 to 4.2 as the Draw Price.
These two combinations create the very strict and highest odds.
So you need to test and decide, strict or relaxed, if you only will use the Set & Forget option, the trading approach is not affected by this if you don't use the 60/40.
And with other odds criteria there I need for new statistical simulations. -
@Patrik-Mellqvist This is really interesting, so I am getting this right the odds you are backing this at is 1.24/1.25?
On those leagues with a strike rate of 87.92%?
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@Chris-King @Adam @Ryan @Martin
Chris, I tailor the test to match my SHG trading strategy - but the following results will show you have to tackle and fine-tune or tailor the optimal leagues with the highest % in strike ratio with the most played game's option.
This might inspire others to do their own work and crack stats in similar ways to suit their approach.Set & Forget & Trading
This works with both as the starting price for the game selections for O2.5 goals are at 1.8 and will create an odds at 1.24/1.25 before the second half begins and the break-even is around 1.13 with an 87.92% strike ratio.
Win loss ratio 1 in 4 and I think that is very good.Here are the data or cracking stats ... I pick the top 10 leagues ... and will do the same for summer leagues ...
2022/2023 Score 1-0
Bundesliga - 44 games - WWWLWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWW
Belgium Pro - 36 games - WWWWLWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWW
Eredivisie - 37 - games - WWWWWWLWWWWWWLWLWWLLWWWWWWWWLWWWLWWWW
Turkey Super League - 79 games - WWWWWWWWLWWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWLLWWL2022/2023 Score 0-1
Bundesliga - 37 games - WWWWWWWWLWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWW
France Ligue 1 - 90 games - WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWLWWWLWWLWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWLWWWWWWWWW
Turkey Super League - 59 games - WLWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWLWWLWWWWLWWWWWWWWW
Eng Premier League - 70 games - WLWLWWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWLLWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWLLWWW2022/2023 Score 0-0
Italy Serie A - 111 games - WWWWWWWLWWWWWWWLLWWLLWWWWWWWLLWWWWWLLWWWWWWWLLLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLLLWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWWW2022/2023 Score 1-1
Turkey Super - 45 games - WLWWLWWWWWWWLWLWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWLW
Bundesliga - 23 - games - LWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWWLWWWW
Eng Premier - 46 games - LLWWWWWLWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLLLWWWLWWWWWWWWWW2022/2023 Score 2-0
Turkey sup - 26 games - WWWWLWWWLWLWWWWWLWWWLWWWWW
Portugal - 23 games - WWLWLWWLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWW
France Ligue 1 - 20 games - WWWLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWL2022/2023 Score 0-2
Turkey sup - 10 GAMES - WWWWWWWLWW
Portugal - 17 - GAMES - WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Belgium Pro - 11 GAMES - WLWWWWWWWWW
Italy Serie A - 22 GAMES - WWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWWW2022/2023 Score 2-1
Turkey sup - 10 GAMES - WWWWWWWWWW
Eredivise - 10 GAMES - WWLWWLWWWW
Bundesliga - 5 GAMES - WWWLW
France Ligue 1 - 18 GAMES - WWWWWLWWWLWWWWWWWL
La Liga - 17 GAMES - WWWWWWWLWLWWLWWWW
Eng Premier Leauge - 16 GAMES - WWWWWWWWWLWWWLWW2022/2023 Score 1-2
Eredivisie - 7 GAMES - WWWWWWW
Bundesliga - 7 GAMES - WWLWWWW
Eng Championship - 26 GAMES - WLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWWWLWWSUMMARY
80BUNDESLIGA 116 GAMES 15 LOSES 87.07% Strike Ratio SHG
BELGIEN PRO 47 GAMES 5 LOSES 89.36% Strike Ratio SHG
EREDIVISIE 54 GAMES 9 LOSES 83.33% Strike Ratio SHG
TURKEY SUP 229 GAMES 33 LOSES 85.59% Strike Ratio SHG
FRANCE LIG 128 GAMES 16 LOSES 87.50% Strike Ratio SHG
ENG PREMIER 132 GAMES 25 LOSES 81.06% Strike Ratio SHG
PORTUGAL 40 GAMES 4 LOSES 90% STRIKE RATIO SHG
ENG CHAMPIONSHIP 26 GAMES 5 LOSES 80,77% strike ratio shg
ITALY SERIE A 133 GAMES 22 LOSES 83.46% STRIKE RATIO SHG
LA LIGA 17 GAMES 3 LOSES 82,35% STRIKE RATIO SHGTOTAL OVERAL SHG STRIKE RATIO 85.949%
C O N C L U S I O N
The best combinations with the highest amount of played games in combination with the highest strike ratio.
(116 games, 87.07%)
(47 games , 89.36%)
(128 games, 87.50%)
(40 games, 90.00%)Total 331 games and 87.92% Strike Ratio for SHG
Optimal half time score lines and leagues
Bundesliga 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2,
Belgien Pro 1-0, 0-2,
France Liga 0-1, 2-0, 2-1
Portugal 2-0, 0-2I write the filter later ... have a complete solution for that and critics and suggestions are more than welcome or a kind word for sharing hard work
Note my mantra: quality trades and not quantity trades and the same for Set & Forget
This statistical approach performs better than Gary's SHG Filter - so I learned that an optimal filter is not always the solution there are other ways to find optimal situations using statistical football software and simulating different scenarios and lesson learned not to become mentally lazy when having done filters on silver plate.Pst - I have a winning trading method for this with an amazing hedge bet to boost profit to 100% and can not share in public - but private ...
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@Patrik-Mellqvist You’re welcome. I really wanted more data on this filter so just thought the bets thing to do was begin to track myself and over time i would get the data i wanted. I was helped by another member @Greg-Mitchell who had data from July 2023 to early 2024.
I’ll be interest in what you find from the data. And thanks again.
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I just want to say thank you for such a great contribution with the excel sheet.
And i know the % strike ratio is different from different score lines and when i have time i will explore them.This is due to effects of the favorite leading or that the underdog is behind and for sure other reasons.
I was thinking to test the % strike ratio for the following score lines.
And i already know that some of the score lines produce higher % strike ratio then others.
This is because i have another simulation done that show significant difference between them.
It has to do with the match mechanism of in-play situation and other mechanism.So if i have for example a method that profit from one goal second half between certain time-intervall i for sure would like to fine tune and get those extra % in strike ratio to boost the overall profits.
0-0 HT
1-0 HT
0-1 HT
1-1 HT
2-0 HT
0-2 HT
2-1 HT
1-2 HTAnd an really advance chart would list the amount of goals seperate % strike ratio.
For example 1 goal 85,87% SHG 2 goals 72,34% 3 goals and so on ... for each score-lineEDIT i run the original SHG Gary sheet and score-line 0-0 at HT with SHG had 92,22% strike ratio
That is pretty amazing - but there is larger amounts of trades, but if we combine those with the higest values i pretty sure we can find strike ratios above 90% benchmark - 83/76 W/L from total of 400 placed betsCheers
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS hi, the filter is available to all members on the football stats. Click ‘My Saved Filters’ then ‘Member Filters’ then ‘Second Half Goal Example’.
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@Chris-King hello chris, can you send me those filter please.... i would be very interested to look, sometimes you may a few filters on the go and pick up similar games.... so when your looking for goals, hopefully your filters will help
