Simon's Blog - Year of the Grind (2024)
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@Martin Just putting a lay trade on far outside my normal odds range (because it can't win from that position!). Then one part of my brain seeing it start to go sideways saying just exit and take a partial loss, but the other part going no it will be fine.
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@simon-topper what was the moment of madness out of interest? (We have all been there!)
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So had Saturday afternoon to myself and made a tidy profit, only to throw it away today on a moment of madness. Still can't contain myself sometimes, at least no major damage done!
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@simon-topper said in Simon's Blog - Year of the Grind (2024):
Much better week this week, all my strategies are beginning to recover after a poor January (was to be expected). If only every week was as good as this!
Fantastic!
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Much better week this week, all my strategies are beginning to recover after a poor January (was to be expected). If only every week was as good as this!
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So a tough week, 1 mistake that was my fault broke one of my rules and of course it came in. Lesson learnt, no need to push to much.
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@Martin It's a mental and time consideration.
Mentally I need a proper period of time to reset if I have a loser. Can't just brush it off yet although I can walk away now.
I could trade all day and sometimes I do if the opportunity arises but between work and home life, I just want something that can fit in a shorter period of time. I found nothing worse than trading all day and then having a couple of losers at the end of the day making it seem pointless. -
@simon-topper why do you stop after one or two trades?
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@Martin it's in play horse laying, I have been doing this over the years and found it was the mental side of things that was causing the issue/losses (over staking, chasing losses etc.) .
So general rules are:
Horses at 8-12 BSP (I only have 1 pick per race, before the off)
1 or 2 clear favourites
nothing that points towards it winning (C&D winner, change of headgear/owner things like that)
I don't trade NHF or maidens.I wait for the odds to drop around 20% and if favourite horses odds coming in lay my selection, then let it run.
This is definitely a manual style, I have tried to find an angle to automate it but too many variables. Although I am still trying to build something that will give me a list to begin with rather than going through the race cards.
I also only take 1 or 2 trades a day then stop so I don't view this as something long term I can sustain. -
@simon-topper what's the general strategy regarding your manual trading? looks good!
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So ended this week in a good postion, but once again it's come from my manual trading rather than my automation:
Hopefully keep it up over the next few weeks and see a recovery in my automation.
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@simon-topper have you tweaked Lay Away? I have an update to the preset
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So month 1 over and it's been a pretty bruising affair. My main strategy had it's worst month since back testing available, and the lay away having an awful weekend as well.
I hope this means I will get a bounce back in February. Not changing anything next month just let it run, and see where we are at the end of next month.
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So not a good week this week, hoping it's just a bad Janurary and things will turn around next month.
Although one silver lining is the manual trades I have been placing, have a lot more discipline this year and not just randomly stabbing in the dark hoping for the best.
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So a solid week this week, been mega busy with work but as the horses look after themselves and it only take 5 min to put the football ones in so not too taxing.
Also started using a back away team filter that was mentioned in the football thread. As I use a lay away strategy already it only took a few minutes to change the macro and bot I use.
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So week2 the complete opposite, looks like a couple of other people had poor results as well.
They say a picture tells a thousand words, I think this one shows the ups and downs you can have. At least I am now staking correctly and just take it in my stride, last year I reckon I would of panicked a bit.
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@simon-topper well done mate!
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So week 1 out of the way, nice steady profit this week. quite a few manual bets placed, was home most of this week so could trade when free. Automation is the main driver though, just use the manual trades to hopefully top up the bank.
Highlighted in yellow are my main strategies.
