The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
-
So 2023 has nearly come to an end and its been quite a speedy journey to Betfair Trading as didnt know it existed 8 months ago but after a year of matched betting, 3 months of trading and a month of BTC i am hoping i am in a position to get the mindset straight and kick on from here... i have spend the day creating stratagys that i will paper trade over the next few months and will hopefully compliment and then replace my current LTD stratagy which seems to be pretty good but only ever feels like being a bad run away from back to square 1... anyway, not expecting anyone to read this but hoping it will keep me on track as i have a tendency to overtrade (sure thats a common issue)...
Happy New Year to any poor sod who spent the last few minutes reading this
-
20 days on and finally caught up on my spreadsheet after a few days at Disney Paris and a trip to Boston for the NFL... holidays are my motivation for doing this.
My LTD strategy which is the only one i actually trade live at the minute has stayed at at around 32pts profit for last few weeks but i only trade if have had time to look at it and am around to enter and exit trade with no distractions so not been many opportunities recently... I do also track what would happen if i set and forget these and they would be losing.
Other bits i am tracking -
FHG - 1pt profit from 249 selections when enetring at kick off - down a pt this month but not reviewed the data at all
BTTS - 16 pts profit so up 12 pts on last month - will strat trading if have another good few weeeks
Lay Home - down from 11 pts to 8 pts but was as high as 25pts so very volitile and streaky... had 639 selections so will get to 1000 and then look at odds or league filters
LTD (set & forget with seperate paramiters to the ones i trade) - up to 19 pts from 13 pts last month
O2.5 - down to 14 pts form 16 pts last month and now at 315 selections when entering at kick off
O1.5 lay - now at half a pt loss from 4 pts up last month
DNB - currently 7pts down from 28 selections (early doors on this)
Going forward i am hoping to keep trading LTD and also add in BTTS and maybe my seperate LTD as a set and forget...
-
@Shannon-Townsend here you go: LTD Spreadsheet.xlsx
-
@Martin thank you, either excel or libre
-
@Shannon-Townsend sure what software do you use for spreadsheets? I would leave data in just delete it as needed
-
@Martin am i able to steal a blank version of your spreadsheet you used in LTD video you have just put up... like they way it tracks lots in one and my excel skills are basic at best.
-
@Martin yeah you know when 70 mins hits and you trade out a goal will come on 72 mins... think i am looking at entering later in game and taking it on a game by game basis which makes more sense anyway but means less auto pilot on it...
-
@Shannon-Townsend finding something similar on my LTDs, leaving outright works well but then that lure of 95% of the matches having at least one goal makes it tempting to trade out. I find quite a lot of 2-2 draws! Very rarely 0-0.
-
@Shannon-Townsend a month on and LTD another 4 pts profit... trying to get on top of entry point as going in at start of the game offers very small returns with the risk of losing whole stake on 70 mins if nil nil especially when there is no clear favourite... i think when i started this journey i wanted a very passive side hustle but to get real results you do need to put time and effort in... there are no short cuts...
in addition to the above i have been paper trading the following set and forgets -
FHG - 2pts profit from 249 selections when enetring at kick off - have recorded goal times so can dive in to this at some point
BTTS - 4pts profit from 183 selections when entering at kick off, again i have 1st goal times so can look at getting in later maybe
Back Home - 20 pts down from 200 selections (see next strategy)
Lay Home - 11 pts up from 87 selections - early days and very little filters, basically just odds range at this stage
LTD (set & forget) - 13 pts up from 38 selections
O2.5 - 16 pts up from 279 selections when entering at kick off, again i have 1st goal times so can look at getting in later maybe
O1.5 lay - 4 pts up from 100 selections when entering at kick off, again i have 1st goal times so can look at getting in later maybe
possibly need more selections before can read to much in to it but happy to share if anyone wants to cast an eye
-
@Shannon-Townsend yes they are coming aren't they! 8 games played now!
-
@Shannon-Townsend I spy a few EFL games on my filter... feels like its been a while but tomorrow i will be a Crewe and Plymouth fan for the afternoon...
-
42 trades since i last updated and gone from 20 pts to 26 pts so still slowly heading in the right direction... more selections will be creeping in any day as well...
-
Yea Santa Barbara as so so cool, if you liked that then you will love San Clemente (which is one of my favs now!).
San Diego was a tad overrated in my opinion, the zoo is insane but I much preferred Orange County
-
@Ryan Santa Barbara was just a really cool, chilled beautiful town.... happily live there, however, highlights were Alcatraz tour, Whale watching and Yosemite national park... beautiful state... need to get back and get to San Diego.
-
@Shannon-Townsend Wow I have done this twice now, what were the highlights for you?
I don't know about you but Venice beach for me is so cool, I also love San Clemente, Santa Barbara.
-
@Shannon-Townsend just spend a couple of days at Universal (avoid Disney imo) then head down Florida to the keys, well worth it!
-
@Martin Down the coast from San Fran to LA via Yosemite national park... was epic, think Florida may be the next place but i want to go to the keys and kids want theme parks lol...
-
@Shannon-Townsend amazing! Whereabouts did you go? Need to fund another trip to Florida myself!
