The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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So 2023 has nearly come to an end and its been quite a speedy journey to Betfair Trading as didnt know it existed 8 months ago but after a year of matched betting, 3 months of trading and a month of BTC i am hoping i am in a position to get the mindset straight and kick on from here... i have spend the day creating stratagys that i will paper trade over the next few months and will hopefully compliment and then replace my current LTD stratagy which seems to be pretty good but only ever feels like being a bad run away from back to square 1... anyway, not expecting anyone to read this but hoping it will keep me on track as i have a tendency to overtrade (sure thats a common issue)...
Happy New Year to any poor sod who spent the last few minutes reading this
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End of Nov update
Lay u1.5 goals - now 33pts up for the year so down a couple this month
LTD 1st half only - now 44pts up for the year so up 1 pt this month
BTTS - now 39 pts up so down a couple in Nov
Lay Away - now at 42 pts up so a huge 16pts up this month and means overall i end the month with a small profit
I also have a Serie A over 2.5 goals set and forget that i have been paper trading since start of season and that is 11pts up currently... hopefully be able to go live with this in Jan if it keeps going strong.
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@Shannon-Townsend brilliant!
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End of month 10
Lay u1.5 goals - now 36pts up so up 3 pts on last month
LTD 1st half only - now 43pts up so up 5pts from last month
BTTS - now 43pts up so just 1pt up this month
Lay Away - now at 26pts so same as last month
overall still slowly going in the right direction...
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@Andy-Donnelly 1 or 2 a day over last few months but hoping that may increase with European leagues beginning to show up...
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@Shannon-Townsend Thanks for sharing. How many selections do you get a month on average?
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Cheers, all stratagies seem to have quite a lot of variance but if heading the right direction i will take that...
My Lay under 1.5 follows the baove but will not lay at odds of more than 3... when i get some more results i will dive deeper in to the results and see if tweaking could improve it... it is my 1st half LTD that i have the most faith in at the minute...
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@Shannon-Townsend Amazing results there, well done!
What filter settings and odds do you use for the 1.5 goals strategy out of interest? I’ve had a few cracks at that market and haven’t been able to make it work for one reason or another
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@Shannon-Townsend and we are back in business -
Lay u1.5 goals - now 33pts up so down recovered last months loss
LTD 1st half only - now 38pts up so up 13 pts from last month and loads more selections coming through
BTTS - now 42pts so recovered from last month
Lay Away - now at 26pts so up 5pts
all seem to have a lot of varience but 9 months in to this and they are all in profit so excited to see what having the big leagues back does to this...
Live trading also coming along nicely and getting better at spotting genuine opportunities.
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@Shannon-Townsend big leagues will be kicking in soon!
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End of August results whilst i remember...
Lay u1.5 goals - now 30pts up so down 4pts this month
LTD 1st half only - now 25pts up so down 3 pts again but still very few selections due to time of year
BTTS - now 40pts up so down 3pts
Lay Away - up a pt to 21pts
Still tracking various other things but nothing to get excited about at this stage... hoping once more selctions start to come up in the coming weeks my set and forget strats above will kick on.
alos looking at live trading the correct score, shg, LTD & lay the winning team and think this may be where can actually make some decent profit going forward but only if i keep my discipline and not get carried away trying to trade everything.
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July results early as holiday time for me...
Lay u1.5 goals - now 34pts up so down 2pts in July but that was basically one game
LTD 1st half only - now 28pts up so down 3 pts in June - again that was 2 losses in a row and not enough selections to get it back
BTTS - now 43 pts up so up 4pts in June - seems to be a good one for the summer leagues continuing £1 stakes on this
Lay Away - still on 21 pts
looking forward to more selections but feel the summer has been useful for learning and looking at odds, with BBTS i now wait about 10 mins before entering to get odds at evens, i seem to really prefer bigger odds on things rather than chasing a really high strike rate.
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@Shannon-Townsend brilliant results well done! Keep up the good work
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End of month 6 update
Lay u1.5 goals - now 36pts up so up 1pt in June but very few selections
LTD 1st half only - now 31pts up so down 4 pts in June - only been 4 selctions all month though so nothing to be concerened about
BTTS - now 39pts up so up 7pts in June - continuing £1 stakes on this
Lay Away - up 21 pts so 4pts up in June - again not many selections
Overall a pretty stable month and been going back watching every video and reading anything i can regarding in play trading and started recording results from that...
Also made £250 matched betting from the accounts i still have left (thank you Euros) so the trading bank is building nicely for when the time comes.
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@Shannon-Townsend 100%!!! Great way to do it, I used to try and split the research as well because the stats will pull the games before so I would get a list Friday and do a bit of work on a Friday then it left less to do on the Saturday morning.
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@Ryan I think come August/September I will either have to get up earlier on a Saturday and spend more time or if life gets in the way just leave that day completely... better to have earned nothing than lost money due to rushing.
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@Shannon-Townsend That's great that you have kept it simple and are looking for value as well which is really smart.
I hope this continues, goals markets are always fun as well!
Saturday's are horrible the 3pms! What are you going to take from that as well then to tweak going forward in your trading plan?
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@Ryan I have kept it pretty simple so on btts I'm looking for both teams to have had btts 70% of the time and then I will only enter if odds are over 1.7... I think when I use real money I will obviously keep this the same but enter after 5 or 10 mins to squeeze a bit more profit out of it...
Similar rules on laying u1.5...
On my half time lay the draw I am looking for home teams who average scoring over 1 goal in 1st half and away teams that concede 1 or more, combined with under 10% of half time nil nils or 1-1s... that means I really do not get many selections but that makes it easier in a way.
During the winter leagues season I was struggling on a Saturday and always seemed to lose a pt or two on all strategies and I think it's due to number of selections meaning I was probably rushing and not being as strick on selections...
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@Shannon-Townsend it 100% will, talk me through the process you used to build these strategies?
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@Ryan yeah feels good and feels like its starting to really click... obviously if it was real money it would feel better but my time will come.
