Horse Racing Strategy Clinic
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
I'll give this a go. I've had this strategy which looks promising but has divebombed recently.
I think the main thing with this one is that the compounded stakes are obviously not very realistic. It really quickly ramps up to crazy stakes that probably wouldn't get matched. Looking at this, we really need to get some liquidity settings into the software so thanks for this.
Changing to flat stakes just to eliminate that factor gives a better picture of the raw performance of the strategy.
There is a drop-off recently which is annoying, but last winter it surged if anything. It does feel like something's changed this winter. I'm going to try and do some analysis of this when I get a moment. Feels like there have been more abandoned meets this year, or at least that they started earlier than usual, which I think has had an effect.
It could just be natural variance though. I'm always reminded of this chart, which show panic selling in the stock market over time:
Your edge on this strategy is pretty tight to be fair with your strike rate only a couple of % over the break-even. It also looks like losing runs are pretty common, with a drawdown of half your bank at one point.
I'm not convinced the headgear restriction is meaningful, although in previous years, there looks to be a bit of a correlation with the horse's first couple of runs after a wind op.
Apologies for only bringing problems and no solutions!
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@Dan-MacKinnon I'm worried about your staking bud, don't rush it
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@Dan-MacKinnon I don't know what the answer is. If you run it on 2022 instead of 2023 it bombs Apr-Jun, so doesn't appear to me that it's a seasonal thing, just a bad run.
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@Greg-Mitchell I tried to add filters which have minimal impact unless it's obvious. The OR only excludes 11 trades so it's not a big difference if it's in or not.
The thing I'm struggling with is that so many just fall off a cliff Nov-Dec. I understand that is also due to compounding so bigger reversals, but I'm starting to think whether it's best to just pause trading during December-January?
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@Dan-MacKinnon I would question your Official Rating bit, Flat Horses only go up to 140 and Jumps up to 170, so its questionable if having this in makes any difference. The you would only be excluding the very best jumps horse.
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@Dan-MacKinnon when you set it to flat stakes the drop off is minimal!
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I'll give this a go. I've had this strategy which looks promising but has divebombed recently.
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