Horse Racing Strategy Clinic
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@Brigitta-Nagy No worries feel free to give it a try and forward test. There is no reason for the price range really. For my forward testing I have changed this to 2 to 100.
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@Brigitta-Nagy said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
Id like to see how it looks like if i want to close the trades before the race starts, but i don't know how to manage this on the strategy builder without enter an exit price.
You need to enter some kind of exit target. If you really don't have one, just enter an unrealistic price, e.g. 1.01 on a back to lay or 1000 for a lay to back, and make sure the exit time slider is set to "Race Start".
In that scenario, every trade should just be force-closed at the race start.
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@Adam Hi,
i checked this strategy and looks pretty good, thanks for sharing this @Danny-Newby
Id like to see how it looks like if i want to close the trades before the race starts, but i don't know how to manage this on the strategy builder without enter an exit price.
Actually may i ask you @Danny-Newby why you chose this entry price range? -
@Brigitta-Nagy Here is a video guide on how to share and upload strategies:
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@kevin-curry It will definitely be in the next update we release. The thing that's holding it up is the larger feature involving the group breakdowns.
I think I will split it into 2 releases and do the first one with draw bias and other new strategy rules next week.
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Hi Adam
Can you tell me when you think the Draw Bias filter will be added to the horse racing software?? -
@Dan-MacKinnon Sounds weird!
Is it specific courses? Or maybe related to liquidity (try grouping results by "race traded")?
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Those who work in an office know that the first day back is by far the slowest of the year.
Therefore, I thought I'd mess about with an AW strategy. I wanted to focus on the top ranked OR horse. I've tried to create a strategy with 2023 only and then expanded it to the other years. I noticed that zero non-runners was the best approach (and is easy to do with BFBM).
The other thing which I can't understand but every year Tuesday and Sunday are losing days. I don't know enough about horse racing for why this might be a thing?
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@Adam Cheers for having a look!
Thats a great spot about it making profit when closing at the start of the race, I'm deffo more of a risk averse person so it's very tempting to forward test that method. I'm gonna hook these up with BFBM and try get the automation working for these, with the removal of a stoploss in race it should hopefully make it quite easy!
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@Danny-Newby Looks pretty solid. So you're basically looking for nice highly-priced horses which stand a good chance of racing prominently or leading and therefore steaming at least 10 ticks.
A couple of thoughts:
- You could experiment with different exit and stop-loss ticks and track the change in the "MFE" and "MAE" figures in the results. These will help you plan the best exit and stop-loss points (see the info button next to each one for a description of what they do)
- This is definitely one to forward-test as you'll be closing a lot of trades in-running and are using a stop-loss. The in-play delay and volatility of the prices in-running can make this challenging. Interestingly, the strategy still performs pretty well even if you close your trades at the start of the race! So if you wanted to de-risk it a bit, that could be an option.
- You might consider limiting the number of qualifiers per race with the "max qualifiers" option in the betting rules, basically for the same reason I mentioned above - successfully executing several trades with stoplosses in-running might be a challenge
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Hey, been messing around with the software looking for a B2L or something similiar. Come up with this. First one I've come up with using the software and wondered if anyone more experienced would be able to cast an eye on it and tell me whether I've back fitted the hell out of it or done something daft.
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@George-Bowling Use "Single price" as the bet type, which is like placing a bet at a specific price and waiting for it to get matched if possible:
If you also change the results grouping to "Specific Race", you'll also be able to more easily see your combined p/l per race:
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@Dan-MacKinnon said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
What would you be hoping to see for this? What's a good guide for a % difference over break-even? Is a lower % acceptable if there are fewer losing runs?
Realistically it's always going to be quite tight as the markets are fairly efficient, but yes if the drawdown isn't too bad then I guess your margin on the strike rate is less concerning.
For perspective, the best I've managed so far is beating the breakeven SR by 13%, but even that strategy has gone pretty flat since around October, and it only produces a handful of trades every month, which I don't mind as I like these micro-strategies, but it does make it harder to see if it's preparing for a downturn!
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@Dan-MacKinnon I'm not sure of the statistical relevance, but all of my strategies are between 5% and 8% above breakeven strike rate, which seems to be working.
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@Adam said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
Your edge on this strategy is pretty tight to be fair with your strike rate only a couple of % over the break-even. It also looks like losing runs are pretty common, with a drawdown of half your bank at one point.
What would you be hoping to see for this? What's a good guide for a % difference over break-even? Is a lower % acceptable if there are fewer losing runs?
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Thanks everyone. It’s really interesting to hear from you all on things to look out for. I’m new to horse racing and all my experience is based off the software so I appreciate the “real world” advice. You’ve all mentioned issues I’ve encountered, if not with this one then another strategy.
Thanks again!