Horse Racing Strategy Clinic
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The "day of month" one definitely sounds like a red herring to me. There's no intrinsic reason why those specific days would cause a problem, especially as they'll be a different day of the week much of the time.
The distance one also sounds suspect, I'm always suspicious of removing numbers from the middle of a range. It would make more sense if you were eliminating them from the ends of the range (i.e. each end of the bell-curve).
Worth seeing if the archie score goes up or down with the addition / removal of those rules.
The other thing to do is try and figure out whether there's some other factor that is meaningful, which led to that coincidence.
For example are there certain types of race that are mostly 11-15 furlongs and it's actually those race types that you need to look at rather than the distance itself? Can't think of any off the top of my head, just an example.
You could invert the strategy so it's ONLY that distance range selected and play with the results groupings to try and find a pattern.
Also worth looking at the monthly breakdown for those distances. If it's all over the place, up one month, down the next rather than consistently down, that would also suggest it's not a statistically significant factor.
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Hi.
I have created and just started forward testing the attached, I'm pretty excited by it.I have noticed that the ROI will go higher still by removing Race Distance 11-15, and also the 19 and 9th days of the month.
How far is too far when creating using filters for a strategy. I have a feeling that removing parts of a large group (furlongs 5-24, then taking out 11-15) kind of feels like massaging figures somewhat.
Any thoughts on this and also the month/day part too would be greatly appreciated.
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@Danny-Bridges We have the race on the 18th as 1m 2f 43yds. As I say, we'll consider whether we can round to the nearest furlong instead.
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@Adam Thanks Adam, appreciate you taking the time to look into this. I have pasted the view from Skysports racing as well for the 2 winning runs and then today's race distance which all seem to be the same. Let me know what you find. Thanks/
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@Danny-Bridges It would be me answering the support ticket so rest assured, if you submitted it there you would still get an answer
The run on 18/03/2022 was the same distance if rounded to the nearest furlong, but not the same exact distance to the yard.
I guess if RP is basing this stat on the distance rounded to the furlong, we should try and be consistent with them. I have a feeling we had this discussion early on though and deliberately set it that way based on previous feedback. I'll look through the old support tickets and if not, we'll update it to round to the furlong in the next release.
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hi @Adam - Hope you are well, I raised a support form for this but posting in here in case you can also help. I have attached the JSON file for a strategy I have been testing and came across a Horse running today (19/01/2024) at Newcastle in the 15:45. Horse Name is Cusack. Could be my understanding of the rules but according to my strategy I am expecting only horses with 1 C&D win to qualify at the selected courses with runners between 2-9. When I dug a little bit deeper into the C&D wins of Cusack I can see the horse has actually won twice (31/03/2023 & 18/02/2022) at Newcastle C&D 1m2f so struggling to see why the horse qualifies under my strategy rules.
I even extended the runners upto 12 in the strategy to review the daily qualifiers to see if it was the Race from 18/01/2022 which was causing the issue since it's outside of the Runners range for my strategy but it's still showing Cusack to only have 1 C&D win. Hopefully you can shed some light on this.
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Yep I get it now, thanks Adam!
It's going to be a beast of a filter when I am done with it then as I need to Filter out all the options bar 1, then put an "OR" in and repeat 3 times, because I want only 3 types of equipment, haha. Will give it a go anyway though cheers.
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@Andrew-Gray said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
So I presume each category is actually different and for example "Visor Windop" selections are not included in "Visor"... is that right?
Yes, the group breakdown is based on the full combination of equipment to avoid any overlap.
In that case how would I go about selecting "Visor Windop" in the filters because I don't see that option, there are only the options for each peice of equipment on it's own (this is just a question so I can understant how it works)
You can add another instance of the rule and select "Wind Op", e.g:
This will include any horses wearing a visor and/or have had a wind op, so your group breakdown might look something like this:
Note that this includes some horses that wore other gear in addition to the visors and wind ops. If you ONLY want visors and wind ops, you can add a rule group with the equipment to exclude, e.g.:
Now your results will look something like:
Conversely if "Visor Windop" is included by selecting "Visor" in the filter settings, how can I select horses that ONLY have a "Visor" and nothing else (this is actually what I want to do)
Follow the example above to exclude any that you don't want to see.
Note that you don't need to exclude all the "1st", "2nd", etc options. E.g. if I excluded "Wind Op" from the above, it would remove all wind ops, regardless of whether it was the 1st time, 2nd time, etc.
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HI @Adam
Struggling with something which is to do with the Equipment, won't post the filter as should be able to explain it pretty clearly.
So I split results by equipment and exported to spreadsheet, here is a few rows of the results:
So "Visor" has 146 profit, and there are loads of other variations with Visor in it, but they do not add up to 146 profit.
So I presume each category is actually different and for example "Visor Windop" selections are not included in "Visor"... is that right?
In that case how would I go about selecting "Visor Windop" in the filters because I don't see that option, there are only the options for each peice of equipment on it's own (this is just a question so I can understant how it works)
Conversely if "Visor Windop" is included by selecting "Visor" in the filter settings, how can I select horses that ONLY have a "Visor" and nothing else (this is actually what I want to do)
Many thanks in advance as always
Andy
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@Brigitta-Nagy No worries feel free to give it a try and forward test. There is no reason for the price range really. For my forward testing I have changed this to 2 to 100.
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@Brigitta-Nagy said in Horse Racing Strategy Clinic:
Id like to see how it looks like if i want to close the trades before the race starts, but i don't know how to manage this on the strategy builder without enter an exit price.
You need to enter some kind of exit target. If you really don't have one, just enter an unrealistic price, e.g. 1.01 on a back to lay or 1000 for a lay to back, and make sure the exit time slider is set to "Race Start".
In that scenario, every trade should just be force-closed at the race start.
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@Adam Hi,
i checked this strategy and looks pretty good, thanks for sharing this @Danny-Newby
Id like to see how it looks like if i want to close the trades before the race starts, but i don't know how to manage this on the strategy builder without enter an exit price.
Actually may i ask you @Danny-Newby why you chose this entry price range? -
@Brigitta-Nagy Here is a video guide on how to share and upload strategies:
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@kevin-curry It will definitely be in the next update we release. The thing that's holding it up is the larger feature involving the group breakdowns.
I think I will split it into 2 releases and do the first one with draw bias and other new strategy rules next week.
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Hi Adam
Can you tell me when you think the Draw Bias filter will be added to the horse racing software?? -
@Dan-MacKinnon Sounds weird!
Is it specific courses? Or maybe related to liquidity (try grouping results by "race traded")?
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Those who work in an office know that the first day back is by far the slowest of the year.
Therefore, I thought I'd mess about with an AW strategy. I wanted to focus on the top ranked OR horse. I've tried to create a strategy with 2023 only and then expanded it to the other years. I noticed that zero non-runners was the best approach (and is easy to do with BFBM).
The other thing which I can't understand but every year Tuesday and Sunday are losing days. I don't know enough about horse racing for why this might be a thing?
