Advice
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Hi guys, after a bit of help.. I have been tracking a few strategies over the past 6 months and have about 1500 games from 8 filters created. These are mostly set and forget and have done really well. I have filtered each one down by taking out countries, leagues and odds that aren't resulting in a profit. Now, the problem I have is that June - October I would have made a healthy profit. I started to properly trade in November and have made a loss this month! It's extremely frustrating as I feel as though I have done everything I can to be cautios and profit from these trades. I am basically reaching out to see if I am missing something? Should I expect these to drop off as we are now mid season? Or are they likely to turn around? Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
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@Terry-Heller thanks Terry, I'll definitely review this to see if I can spot patterns on losing runs. Had a half decent run over the past week or so and I've done ok today... hoping it was just a bad start to the month and it will even itself out.
Thanks for reaching out, really appreciate the help on this!
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@James-Baker Going back to your original post here I do have another thought.
When you are paper trading it is easier to look at the overall results without worrying about losing runs.
If you are adept with excel you maybe could create tables for each of your strategies showing weekly P/L from when you started.
A formula for this would be along the lines of:
=SUMIFS(J6:J167,C6:C167,">=1/11/2023",C6:C167,"<=30/11/2023")
where the J column is where you have recorded your P/L for each trade. The C column being the date. Then the ranges you would adjust to match the required dates. -
@James-Baker The consensus amongst pro traders (I am not one) is do not consider a league until after 8 games have been played.
Use stats from the last 8 matches. -
@Terry-Heller I have considered that, most of the winter leagues performed really well August/September. So I'm thinking, is it worth altering the scope to 5 games or is that too small a sample?
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@James-Baker A couple of things you might think about.
Most filters would start after 8/10 games have been played so major winter leagues are now around round 13 so they shouldn't have been appearing up until recently. Some of those games will have been affected by the International breaks.
As you started in June your analysis has covered Summer leagues which run April to November. Those that are still running will be on their final fixtures so could be considered dead rubbers.
This weekends Major leagues will have plenty of teams that had players travelling long distances even if they didnt play many minutes. A good reason to be wary today and tomorrow.
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@James-Baker what was your profit per month before Nov?
Averaging 30 pts p/m, about 300 selections and about 10% ROI. This was once I'd filtered the results down - that was mainly after I'd removed odds that didn't work. Do you think they possibly over achieved and are now settling down?
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@Martin I removed them off the filters so I'm not sure... probably should have kept them in to see how they got on. I've reviewed them all and I'm down 9pts overall in November. Some have been profitable others haven't. I'm thinking I should keep them as they are until the end of the year to see how they've got on, I'm just torn now whether to actually trade them or not!
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@Martin
Hi Martin,All of them are profitable overall, but I have taken out some selections in an attempt to streamline them so I am looking a quality over quantity. Tbh they are all pretty basic and all of them were built for one purpose and I have found value in another market...for example I built a strategy for under 2.5 goals but actually found value in LTD in the first half. I'm hoping it is variance as you say, just really frustrating when it's dropped off just as I've gone live.
