The Forward Testing Thread
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That comment about covid is very interesting. I normally only use 2022 data to generate the ideas then open it up. Quite a lot of the time i see this sort of thing with 2021 being overal flat or totally rubbish but the continuation into 2023 being good. Wondering now about how much weight we should give 2021 data.
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@Jonathan-Jones don't forget the covid factor was in full swing back then and this strategy is well in profit regardless of that downturn.
I wrote a piece on bankroll management for set and forget strategies, well worth a read: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/betfair-trading-bankroll-management-set-and-forget-betting-update
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@Martin
Thats true but when i see these i wonder what the reasoning is. For example of it was created on 2022 data only (so 2021 and 2023 to now is out of sample) you could reason that by saying that at least its optimised to more recent and still valid data.But of course if you are using a 250 point bank its only had a 50% drawdown (or thereabouts).
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Damn close to. It drops over 120 points in 2 months. At 1% risk thats a lot. In fact it drops the bank from £147 to £41. Does recover but ouch. At flat stakes on a 100 point bank your more than toast. What sort of capitalisation are you running this on, 200 points or more?
Actually, on that big drawdown. Never understood how the drawdown works on this software. says its only 21%.
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@Jonathan-Jones it's ok not to trade it mate, it's been my most profitable strategy since following but each to their own. These aren't tips or 'sure things' just strategies members have shared that have done well. Important everyone makes their own decisions. I think 1% lay stake is too large when laying odds against, I want to have 200-250 bets behind me, so 0.4-0.5%
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@Jonathan-Jones Do you mean July 2021? Looks like it was down £113 to £1 stakes - so I guess if you technically started on 1st July 2021 at 1% of a £100 bank you’d have lost the bank during the first month?
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@Jonathan-Jones It’s not the most profitable in 2021, but it is still in profit..so hardly an account killer.
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Lay 3rd Favourite. Can the creator or someone explain this one please (like the data it was created on, if its had out of sample testing etc)? Wondering why you would actually follow that because if you used it as a 1% etc then based on its 2021 performance its an account killer. Just wondering if there is some reason i am unaware of why thats been totally ignored.
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@Jonathan-Jones
Watched a few Jonathan - but I really need to do and then learn from my c**k ups, Its just my style I guess
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Have you seen the training videos Adam has done? Lots of good stuff on there.
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@Jonathan-Jones
Cheers Jonathan - we are here to learn.
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@David-Polkey You can make some tweaks and use it as a straight back "In Form" strategy. I've been messing about and it's not as profitable but still good. I might have a look and what happens if you back the horse that won their last 2 races
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@David-Polkey Nope, that one is ok. You missed this little thing:
Notice the button is green. That means it has historical values set. On yours there is no historical which means the backtest will use the current race. You can use historical on quite a lot of things. On yours the button will be grey. Click it and see what you can do.
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@Jonathan-Jones
Hi there - yep I'd seen this and I have now changed that to 5 secs out.
I've just looked at Martins Irish DOBS strategy and I have copied the BSP bit - so is there a flaw in that strategy as well?
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@Jonathan-Jones
Ha - thanks for that. Thought I'd copied that bit of the Irish DOBS strategy but clearly missed that little nuance. Thought it was too good to be true
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You cant use that strategy. It has a fundamental error. Its looking into the future.
This bit:
Is basically asking the backtester to only bet if the horse (in the race you are betting on) dropped to less than half its BSP. Thats impossible to know before the race is finished and the result is in. You need to run that bit as a historical query by clicking on the button besides it:
#Edit
Sorry, there is more. This bit:
Cant use that either. Its going to make it bet only on the horse thats BSP favourite or second favourite which you obviously dont know 10 hours out.
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@David-Polkey Yeah I saw that too. It's profitable at 5 seconds out as well.
I'll have a deeper look later, it was just that I wanted to check you meant to do that.
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Hi Dan - yep I did. Seems to make quite a difference to the returns. Still seems to be profitable enough at 5 mins as well though
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@David-Polkey I've just had a look. Did you mean for it to place a trade 10 hours before start?
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As a newcomer I've been nervous about sharing strategies etc. but on the face of it this one shows some promise.
Its another variation on DOBS, but looks at in form front runners as the qualifiers. Interested in what people think and happy to take on board any feedback good or bad.
Dave P
