SHG In-Play Trading
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@Terry-Heller really interesting approach and one that has made me reassess some of my current trades.
Out of interest are you trading out after 1 goal or staying in hoping for 2 goals to come
As you are using Fairbot have you considered setting the stake to a percentage of bank so that you could scale it easily
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@Terry-Heller I see, that explains the sub £1 staking, great way to test though.
Do you know how late in the match you are still able to profit or scratch before the trade is a total loss?
I tried a few that qualified with this method. The Cajamarca match I continued laying every tick from 1.05 to 1.01 that upped the staking from £10 to £14 at only 10p extra risk but unfortunately no late goal to see if there would have been a profit or scratch to take.
On the Valour match two late goals resulted in an outright win before i was able to cash out which was nice.
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@Chris-King Firstly well done seems a good pick and a nice profit. Especially with the time of the goal .
I use Fairbot to place all of the lays at the start of the second half.
I have it set to 50p stakes down to 1.3
Then double to £1 at 1.25 and 1.2
Double again at £2 for 1.15 and 1.1
Finally the biggest £4 at 1.05
Using these stakes the largest possible liability is £2.47
Increasing the stake is still low liability at the lower prices and this helps with the cashout in the case of a late goal.
Also on your test there I would have had the lays that would have been at 1.6,1.55 .
What I mean by that is instead of £1 at 1.5 it would have been £3. -
Had a little go at drip feeding on this match. All criteria matched apart from only 4 FH SOT. Started at 1.50 on the SH 1.5 market and was going to go down to 1.05 with £1 stakes. Goal on 63’
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@Terry-Heller ah ok, I see it all more clearly now I’ve had a good look at it. Are you going to be trading out on a goal whenever that’s scored or staying in for two? If profitable trading out on one can be scaled just the same.
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@Chris-King Yes the rows with an amount in them show matched bets. I have since added a column with the goal time of the first SHG.
With the selection criteria that I am using previous results (covering 380+ results) I am expecting closer to 48% to have 2 SHG.
Overall around 78% to have at least 1 SHG. -
@Terry-Heller Nice set of results, looks like quite a powerful approach in terms of profit if the strike rate holds.
I assume the blank fields were matches where you didn’t get matched before a goal? -
Today I started a proper record of the games that i am picking. I cannot quite get my head around how to sort the spreadsheet out to make inputting the info as easy as possible.
The fact that todays results were very positive gives me an incentive to give it a lot of thought.
It would be nice to automate as much of the inputting as possible if anyone has any ideas how i would be grateful.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wx58-JbHzHmNTNa--c7Q9AvwJbHpgKGMG9m9KAo9C1o/edit?usp=sharing
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Monitoring this one as a possibility depending on how SH plays out, odds very short on SHG.
Singapore Premier League, Albirex Niigata v Tampines Rovers 4-2 HT. Hit all my qualifiers on Bet365, home match history good for a SHG; 8/9. Betfair 6.5G odds 1.12/10.5.
Goal 68’ before odds dropped to what I was comfortable with. 4-3
Thought about waiting for evens and going for a late second goal but not really how I’ve been trading this as if a goal has been scored I tend to move on. Sure enough, odds reach 2.0 and goal 82’ 5-3 then goal 83’ 6-3.
Annoying as it may be in these situations I take some enjoyment from the fact I’ve been cautious and lost nothing and stuck to the plan, but mainly in the fact the selection process has identified a match with SHG.
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One from last night.
Peru Liga 1, Sporting Cristal v Binacional 2-0 HT. Hit all my qualifiers on Bet365 and SofaScore, home match history good for a SHG; 8/8.
Betfair 2.5G odds 1.24/5.10. Placed a keep lay bet at 3.00. Matched at 61’, goal at 63’ -
@Chris-King My liability when the goal was scored was 3.20 the cash out was 3.12 level for unders and overs
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@Terry-Heller Yes, did well didn’t it. Please with that. Glad you managed to take advantage too.
I also tested laying the U3.5 market from 60 mins at 1.20 (5pt increments). Small stakes, one split matched at 1.20 with £1.25 stake £0.25 liability. £0.41/0.42 Profit.
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@Terry-Heller Goal on 66 mins was matched on lays down to 1.2
Greened up happy days
Thanks for the heads up Chris -
@Chris-King I will follow that game too laying the unders in the 3.5 goal market.
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@Terry-Heller Thank you chap. Getting better all the time with lots of rest.
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Ecuador Serie B, 9 de Octubre v Vargas Torres 2-0 HT. Hit all my qualifiers on Bet365 and home match history over previous 10 is good for a SHG; 8/10.
Betfair 2.5G odds 1.43/3.35. Placed a keep lay bet at 3.00. Then off to bed. -
@Chris-King It can be a killer have a speedy recovery
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Nice to see you had a crack at this approach @Terry-Heller.
@Martin hot weather breaks in Sweden?? That is quite bizarre, yeah really upsets the flow of play
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Sorry i went cold on this thread, bit off topic but was struck down midday Sunday in quite a state with what turned out to be appendicitis! Operated on Monday night and sent home Tuesday. Not a pleasant ordeal but NHS were faultless and the level of care and attention I received throughout from what was quite a large amount of different staff along the way left me feeling quite humbled by the end. Recovering nicely thanks to them
Hope to be back to tracking/testing/trading this week and paying this approach some more attention
