SHG In-Play Trading
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Evening all. Here is a second half goal strategy I’ve been dabbling in with small stakes so far on £100 bank staking 1-2%.
Was wondering what others opinions of this might be, positive/negative, i don’t mind.
I wanted to create something filter-less I could use while browsing in-play and @Martin’s podcast about trading SHG in-play, seeking out home teams that score second half inspired me further so had to add that as part of my selection criteria, and it’s also inspired me to share what I look for so here we go.
I found this study online, free, floating in the ether while searching for second half goal trading strategies that inspired me…
It’s an interesting read and if you’re interested in trading SHG I recommend it.
From this and data I’ve collected on a past second half goal strategy/BTC filter I have, I’ve built the following rules for myself.
(Doing this has really helped me pick quality over quantity and at the very least it’s helped with over trading, both things I have needed to address in my trading at times)
Second half goal trading strategy.
Target odds 1.40+
Entry when target odds are reached or 58.30-59 minutes or later for better odds no matter what the score line is.
Single stake. 1-3% of bank roll.
Allow the bet to run.
Goal scored is a winning trade.
No goal scored is a losing trade.
Theory and Reasoning
According to the attached study data comprising 4000 matches across multiple global football leagues, matches with 5+ first half shots on target had an 81-87% strike rate of a second half goal.
My SHG data on the O1.5G BTC filter of just over 500 matches shows that matches with at least one goal scored in the first half had an increased strike rate of just above 85% compared to matches that were 0-0 at half time that had just under 84% so just over 1% positive difference.
This also increased the strike rate for a goal between 60 minutes and full time to just above 77% compared to matches that were 0-0 at half time that had just over 75% so approximately 2% positive difference.
Using the data trends from both sources this strategy takes a hybrid approach to trading selections including entry at 60 minutes although entry at half time or at any point, particularly if no goal has been scored should be profitable.
77% strike rate requires minimum odds of 1.30 to break even. Entry at 60 minutes should most often be 1.40+ and value odds.
Selection criteria
By halftime the statistics must include or fulfil the following or the match is NOT traded;
- At least 1 goal scored but no more than 2*
(* improved my strike/win rate to 80% and overall SHG strike rate to 87.5% when removing matches with over 2 goal first half’s) 29/07/2023)
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5+ overall shots on target
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NO Red Cards
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NO trade if a Red Card issued in the second half prior to entering the trade
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Home team has scored or conceded a second half goal in approx 80% or more of the last 5 matches or equivalent, so 4 out of 5 matches, 8 out of 10 matches etc.
After @Martin spoke about this qualifying factor and adding it to this selection process it really seems to be eliminating any ‘pretenders’.
I will drop to 70%/7 out of 10 matches for home team SHG’s but will then be looking at the percentages of the away team scoring or conceding a second half goal at similar rates to back up the home team stats.
These stats will be obtained from Sofa Score or Bet365 and can/will be corroborated on the other where possible. I do prefer to have the stat’s corroborated on both sources the majority of the time if possible.
Early days at the moment but this has really added some confidence, structure and planning to my trading second half goal where in the past I’d be floundering among the mire of ‘opportunities’. It’s actually a lot of fun finding the gems to consider trading.
My favoured approach I’m finding is to lay at 3.0-2.0 (1.50-2.0), when the target odds are available and this can be before 60’.
There is greater value if there is no goal before getting matched/prior to 60’ so no goal before entry is the ideal trade but there is still value with a goal after 60’ whatever the score line is, it’s just less (see below).
I’ll often enter my trade as a keep bet as they can often match before the figures on Betfair reach the target odds.Stats so far (22/07/2023);
45 Trades
SHG S/R 84.5%
SHG 60’> 69%
My S/R 75.5%
11.5pts profit*Stats so far (29/07/2023 with over 2 goal first half matches removed(all matches have either 1 or 2 goals)
40 Trades
SHG S/R 87.5%
SHG 60’> 72.5%
My S/R 80%
13.65pts ProfitAnd there have been a few I’ve missed out on waiting for odds to drop.
This might seem a lot to implement but it’s not. It’s just the 5 rules and respecting them.
You can easily find selections at half time and do the research comfortably.
In addition to the above, if i don’t feel comfortable for any reason or none at all I’m happy to discard the trade as there will always be another more suitable opportunity .
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@Chris-King It was your original post about the inplay stats at HT that I found interesting but at the moment I only use filters to find selections and I trade those regardless assuming that I am at the computer to actually trade.
There are more games where a goal comes too early than those where at least 1 lay is matched. I try to not let that bother me too much as they do show the selection was ok just that it wasn't at a suitable price.
I did run a 100+ games on the odds simulator (it just supplies random games) and 80 minutes does seem to be a good spot to place a saver. The average price at 80 mins was 1.69. With those random games a lay of 0.5 goals at 80mins gave a 10% ROI.
Anyhow the international break has given me time to do deeper dives into my spreadsheets and the more selective filter does seem far more profitable over fewer selections.
The staking for 1.5 goals has a liability of £2.60 for a full loss.
Using the 80 mins 0.5 goals saver will increase that to £3.29 for a full loss. -
@Terry-Heller Thanks for the words of encouragement. It’s much appreciated. Yes i was pretty much playing it as you do and i like that way of doing it so i need to hone in on improving selection/sticking to matches that qualify.
Do you use filters only to find selections? And do you trade those selections regardless, or do they have to qualify with certain in-play stats?
Do you find you miss out on a good deal of matches with a goal before you can get matched at 1.60? I was finding that a lot and was possibly the main reason for my uncertainty on how to play, because generally I’m deleting at a decent SHG SR.
Interesting take on laying the 0.5 on 80 minutes. I presume using a portion of your staking splits should need arise? I’m interested to hear how that goes for you.
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@Chris-King I think that the three keys to success with any strategy are having a consistent approach and a viable selection process. Then add to that record keeping that allows you to do a deeper dive into the results once you have accumulated the data.
You know I play this by laying the unders 2 goals ahead of the current score with the first lay at 1.6. Then trade out after a goal.
Because there are too many variables it isnt easy to track things like ROI but the fact that since I settled on 'my rules' it has been a steady bank builder. Little tweaks may improve things and one that I am testing now is if there hasn't been a goal by 80 minutes I am laying the unders for just one goal. The price here can vary quite a bit but high would be 1.83 and low would be 1.4.
I have recorded 58 games with no goal on 80 minutes
31 of those remained goal less
27 had a goalTodays plan is to run some games on an odds simulator for 85 minutes to get a ball park figure of what to expect then
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@Terry-Heller not great eh. Hope it’s just a blip. I had similar issues on the weekend.
I’ve not really had a consistent past few weeks to be honest. I need to focus on how I’m going to select, trade and stake as I’m finding myself not sticking to a plan.
To cap off those weeks, Friday night had 5 straight losses, all strong selections so gave it miss Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Found a selection last night, lost again. So going to have a re-think and assess my stats and everything.
Annoyingly the 5 straight were picks from a strong goals filter I’ve been recording the match’s stats for only, almost 75-80% SR FHG and 85-90% SHG. Typical.I am thinking though it may be best to use a filter for this rather than select on the fly. Not sure. Using BTC stats as a final SHG qualifier for selections after BET365/Sofa Score/Flash Score in-play stats might be the way forward.
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@Chris-King My worst ever day on this strategy Sunday. Snookered by late goals and one 2nd disallowed goal that could have turned it all around.
11 games traded
3 Goal less
4 with goals 90+ minutes
It had to happen sometime! -
Busy Day today on this strategy
30+ games flagged by the filters
18 traded 3 full losses for a nice steady green day -
@Terry-Heller yes i am finding the same thing and have been cashing out with no goal around 85min but atm it is looking like the best option is to let it run cos of so many late goal,one trade i was in other day was 1-0 til 91st min ended 2-2 after 97min thats mad.im still in a trial period but still trying to work out the cash out after 1 goal or wait til 2nd but am like you atm looking to get out after 1st goal and as long if its not to later it is normally around or just over 50%roi,thanks for your reply
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@ian Yes you are right about how it works. I have still had a profit with a goal on 88 minutes so do not cash out especially as the amount of added time now can be pretty significant. 10 minutes is more than 20% of the allotted 45 minute half!
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@Terry-Heller hi terry is this SHG?are you laying for 2 goals and cashing out after the 1st goal and letting it run til the end if no goal?it might be on here what you are doing but i couldnt find anything on it,and that does look very good stats for the weekend,well done
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Weekend round up of trading out after first goal
Saturday: 28 games from the stats 11 traded and 2 full losses Green day
Sunday: 22 games from the stats 7 traded 1 full loss Green day
Also Sat 16/28 had 2 goals and 26/28 had 1 goal
Sunday 9/22 had 2 goals and 19/22 had 1 goal -
@Terry-Heller oh thanks for that i didnt think of using flashscores to do that and i will look into that thanks for that,as for the data on the ones i have traded so far i keep records on the league/half time score/odds i entered/time i entered/when i exit with time and score and a p/l plus % and i also have a notes section off why or what i was doing/thinking.the thing i am trying to work out is if i collect the data on games i didnt trade yes it would tell me if a goal or 2 or 3 goals are scored but as im dripping it from 1.5 i wouldnt know what trade i would have in the market when a goal is scored,i wouldnt know if i would have greened up after 1 goal or if i would have waited for the 2nd goal,and also if i only had the 1st 50% stake entered @45min then there was a goal before it hit 1.5 i wouldnt know when the green would have run out if i was staying for the 2nd goal,so couldnt track all of that to find out if it is a profitable stratergy thats what stumps me as not great with tech etc,but that has gave me a few things i could look into
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@ian What you are doing at the moment is the way a pro trader would use the data.
First using the stats to find suitable opportunities then examining each one for a reason not to trade. So that is very good.
It shouldn't be too difficult to track both sets of results on separate sheets. Or even on one sheet by setting a column for indicating if you have traded a game.
You need to think a lot about preparing your sheet as to what columns will be useful for later analysis and not get to a couple of hundred games and start wishing you had recorded half time scores for example.
Even if you are not going to be around when games are played adding all the selections to favourites on flash score you can go back over all the days games to quickly update the sheet with the info you want. -
@Terry-Heller yes but not sure how many i will need to say yea its a good stratergy,but i will keep going forward i wont change the filter i dont think as im happy with that,getting quiet a few games per week on average,but i feel im either doing it wrong to what other people do in the sense i think most traders keep the data results on every match it gives you but im only doing that one the ones that i trade so not sure weather i should from now weather to track every match,i can see why that would be the best results but i am picking the games out from the filter that have what i want e.g. does the match mean anything to both team,red card i dont trade,and a few other things im looking for so something i need to think about or get some advice about,but time and a lot of data will be good
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@Terry-Heller on the trades so far it seems most 1st goal seems between 1.4 to 1.3 but it is nice when u can get the 1.3 matched first which is about 72mins gone and leaves you a green if you wish to stay in for the 2nd goal which runs out about 85min im finding so far but as i said its only a low sample rate atm
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@Terry-Heller yep exactly how i do it but i do last one @1.10
