Expectations
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Hi guys, just wanted some advice moving into the new football season...
I'm currently testing a few strategies and wondered how long you leave it before going live? Started testing at the beginning of June and was planning on analysing the data by the end of August, before going live in September (providing they are profitable). They are mostly all set and forget but obviously I may spot more opportunities in them once all the data is in.
Also wondered how many units per month/ROI I should be looking at per month
I have worked out 40-50 selections per trade at say 5 percent ROI would be roughly 2-3 units per trade - am I being realistic? I know the importance of expecting to much so I just wanted to be as honest with myself as possible.
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@Ryan thanks Ryan. I know what you mean about setting a target ROI, I try not to focus on it too much but it can be difficult not to at times!
How often do you review and change a strategy? In the past I feel as though I've rushed into reducing selections on odds/leagues but have possibly done it just before they improve!
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@James-Baker One thing I would add here is that when I moved away from worrying about per month ROI it changed everything, because I would have a bad month with a strategy drop it then go back through the data and realise it had it best ever month.
I try to take a longer term view now. I tend to look at leagues mainly now, which ones are profitable over the course of their season. Then rule out the bad ones.
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@Terry-Heller thanks Terry, I have gone back through the data and included HT score and timing if first goal in each half, hopefully it will help me to spot more opportunities.
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@James-Baker
One thing that I regretted after a while of testing was not having a spreadsheet that had enough information on it to do deeper analysis of the results.
Obviously you need to have enough time to input the data for your selections and also a willingness to devote that time each day.Now I always record
Filter Name, Country, League, Home, Away....all copy and paste from exporting from the stats software.FHG how many
Time of 1st
SHG how many
Time time of 1st
Won or Lost
Price
P/LThen as data accumulates I can add columns with formula to count various angles.
If I had a strategy that was looking for a match result i would want to have half time scores full time scores and probably home win/ draw /away win
At first The percentages will not mean much as they will fluctuate too much. Once you have over 200 results they will be a bit more settled.
Best of luck with whatever you try