In need of tennis strategies
-
Hello, this is my first post on the forum.
As the title says, I want to know if there are other strategies that anyone can share.I'm kinda new on here and struggling to create one on my own, especially the "come up with filters ideas" part, so it would be much appreciated if someone can share their approach to tennis trading.
I apologize if this was already talked about. -
@Tony-Hastie Thanks for that Tony. Much appreciated. I’ve just renewed my sub with Fairbot for the next 12 months but will be getting Betfair bot for Christmas. Hopefully we can exchange some ideas for getting a really profitable tennis strategy in the future.
I’m always up for a bit of brainstorming too. Just made a tennis strategy : Back the looser of the first set and will let you know how it goes in testing. -
@Peter-Williams Regarding automation. I use Bet Angel...and they have a whole library of Tennis, football and horse racing bots for you to use/tweak to your specs. Being a bit of a luddite Ive found the library to be invaluable! BA is a bit overwelming when you first arrive. But in the end I think thats helped me keep my strategies(and bots) simple. I like simple
They do a free trial if ya wanna check it out. And happy to share the tennis bots I have if ya go that way... -
@Tony-Hastie have you tried decreasing the odds of the favourite to 1.65? Then you will only be getting strong favs. On the downside though you will most likely get less ROI or green. 2nd set odds will be like 2.1 -2.3 for this kind of fav generally. I also like Lay The First Set Winner when odds of BOTH players are close and mainly between 1.8 -2.5. Anything around 2 and your fav will be about 1.25 or there about in the 2nd set. I need those players to be just as good as each other so there is a good chance of a 2 nd set comeback. Or at least a few good swings.What platform do you automate from? I’m looking at automation at the moment but just generally trying to learn it. Any advice on automation would be appreciated also
-
@Peter-Williams said in In need of tennis strategies:
Overall Lost Set One but won set 2 greater or equal to 50%
I cant say Im at all passionate about trading(or watching) tennis. But I have been running a Back the fav if they lose first set bot when I have remembered to load it! Ive just been doing it on all favs between 1.2 and 1.8 with mixed success. Thanks for pointing out the above stat in the software. Seems a no brainer to add that doesnt it...
Ive been automating Back the server as well, but with the renewal of the ATP rights Betfair seems to have gone to s**t on it and Ive found the nominated server being backed when theyre not serving! Hopefully theyve got on top of that now...
-
I like this strategy.
making sure you have a strong underdog challenging the fav 
-
@Michelle-Williams no not automated and not traded tennis properly in a long time but when I have used it it has done well in the past.
-
@Michelle-Williams are those a automated? Also what odds range do you have on backing the loser of 1st set if they are the dog? Yes those kind of comebacks make a lot of green
-
Thanks for sharing the info, I use 40% 3 set matches for my lay first set winner and find that is a really good sweetspot but I'm not only backing favs.
-
Also I tick the same surface and have the season ticked as I think 10 matches to look at will be too small especially when you factor in same surface. I like a larger pool and in my tennis profits most traders have the season ticked when looking at data and also same surface. Pete.
-
Hi Martin. Newbie but been trading tennis every day for over 12 months now. I’m starting with 1 tennis strategy here. I’m calling it Back The Fav 2nd Set. That’s of course if they loose the 1st Set. A 1.6 strong fav will likely be around 2.1-2.2 if they loose the first set by just 1 break. More if a double break. So in this case I will be getting over evens for a solid odds on Fav. Therefore I’m getting my value. Normally you will be getting around 40-50% ROI if they win the 2nd set. I’ve noticed also it doesn’t make much difference if a strong fav looses the 1st set 6-1 for example as a lot of the time they storm back to win the 2nd set just as easily. Obviously I look at in play stats for 1st set and also point by point just to make sure there are no glaring red flags like continuously loosing their serve to love or very low 2nd serve stats.In WTA there is more of a swing when the women confirm the break by then holding their own serve after. In wta I’m more concerned about MTO which can happen more frequently than people imagine. There is a free app I have got to tell me any MTO live in play. Then I just get out asap as the market goes crazy if you are not quick enough to act. There are lots of other factors that you most probably know like the ones that I have outlined above. Today I have started to put a strategy together but being new it’s taking some time navigating and seeing what criteria I can add. So far my criteria is: odds of fav over or equal to 1.25 and under or equal to 1.9. I’m only interested in backing the fav 2nd set with the value that this gives me. My third criteria is Overall Lost Set One but won set 2 greater or equal to 50%. This tells me even with a solid fav in the mix there is still a lot of 3 setters. This last criteria I feel shows these matches have good potential for comebacks and swings. Which is what we want. I don’t like going below 1.25 as there is a lot less chance of the fav loosing the first set. On tradeshark I use another strategy for these types of matches. That’s all I’ve got for now. Just a bit of brainstorming Whilst on holiday. I’m hoping in future to have a good tennis strategy with quite a few criteria. I’m still a member of tennis profits until 26th sept so will take screenshots of what I need to build certain tennis strategies so I can play around with the stats here. This strategy, the law of averages will be on our side and I will test it manually for a while. I will see what I can download here in excel for a simple profit or loss. I have my own on my phone but would like to start learning spreadsheets so I can cut/paste them inside BTC app. Hopefully between a few of us we can make a great tennis strategy. Other good entries that I have a green strategy for is also backing when set and a break down, lay the leader and back when a break down . These are all wta strategies not ATP. My atp strategies involve good strong servers with a back/ lay approach. Then taking out the lay when my player has finished serving to grow green during the match. For this strategy though it’s definitely a set and forget. Wta is volatile and loosing serve is common so I don’t want to be fussing around thinking of an exit, then doing so only to see my girl breaking back next game. Due to the set and forget my stakes will be lower than an in play trade. My bank is just over £500 so £2 stakes it will be. I like to brainstorm ideas with people and love stats so sorry if you think this is long winded lol. It’s because I’m very passionate about all of this. Anyway hope this helps as I like to play my part in sharing information for the better good of our group. Pete.
-
I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!
Player Matches Won >= 0
Category WTA-Singles
Scope Last 10 Matches
Restrict To Same Surface Type
In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.
You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic. -
@Calin-Vochescu Only way I have found of doing this is like this...
Player > Matches Won >= to 0 then it will bring up all the matches, then you can go through all the games quickly.
You can see I clicked Player then can see player 1 and 2, if you then quickly check the odds on the odds tab you will know who's the fave and be able to work it out.
I didn't tick same surface type. I would do that next time!
-
@Margasoiu-Ionut-Alexandru welcome!
We have two strategies in the preset ones on the software, if you click 'edit filter' these may help you create your own as you can see the criteria used.
The tennis thread is here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/271/2022-tennis-trading-thread/2?_=1684912347926
