*****New Football Thread*****
-
Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
I was out tonight, so I wasn’t watching any football. I knew that Millwall were winning 1-0 at HT. I thought that Millwall scored most of their goals in the 2nd half, but wasn’t 100% sure, so I asked an AI app called ‘perplexity’. If anyone has O2 priority, it’s free for 1 year. Anyway, I haven’t been able to verify its response, but Millwall did actually score in the 2nd half. The odds were 1.31 for a SHG. I’ll keep an eye on this app
Me: What percentage of goals do Millwall score in the second half?
Perplexity: According to the statistics, 71% of Millwall's goals have been scored in the second half this season in the Championship[1][4]. This indicates a strong tendency for Millwall to be more productive offensively in the latter part of matches. The data shows that out of their total goals scored, 17 were netted in the second half compared to only 7 in the first half[4]. This significant difference in scoring distribution between halves suggests that Millwall may either employ tactics that become more effective as the game progresses or perhaps benefit from opposing teams tiring in the later stages of matches.
-
@Akiva-Anderson I am with you, the Carabao cup is actually one of my faves.
-
Unpopular opinion: FA Cup weekend is just as boring as International football week
-
@Stuart-Capstick Rrrr now that makes a bit of sense that!
-
@Alastair-Todd I had a similar one is Australia yesterday, goal after 29 mins, perfect for my over 2.5 goals strategy and then nothing. Almost unthinkable is Aus! Fortunately, managed to have a decent day on it overall.
-
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd infuriating when that happens, which game was this?
Oss v Mastricht: first goal after 9 minutes when I considered greening up (but didn't as I figured they had 81 minutes left to score one more goal) and then a missed penalty in the second half
-
@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson That is true, everything is going up and I don't think it's going to stop.
I can't see how anybody stops increasing prices for anything, it's brutal out there.
One of the reasons why I think independently earning and spending your own money is the way forward unless you are incredibly fortunate or fancy breaking your back just to tread water.
Any job I could get that made me a part of the rat race again so to speak would barely cover bills let alone the extras that make life worth living.
-
Horrible games last weekend hopefully football wakes up today:
Among my over 2.5 split stake will be:
Walsall vs Tranmere
Freiburg vs Kiel
Hoffenheim vs Wolfsburg
Ajax vs WaalwijkOver 1.5
Perth Glory vs Auckland
PSV vs AZ
Ross County vs Celtic -
@Stuart-Capstick said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Part of the reason why Musk is going after Starmer is the Online Safety Act, which could lead to the government claiming 10-15% of the revenue of social media companies not sufficiently protecting users. The EU will likely toughen its stance, hence why Musk is going after German leaders and why France is strengthening its media laws.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/online-safety-act-explainer/online-safety-act-explainer
He's becoming a bit of a Bond villain. I'm so sick of the youtube clips they try to get me to watch where people in the British media are discussing what that narcasist has had to say about everywhere other than the States.
-
@Alastair-Todd infuriating when that happens, which game was this?
-
@Tony-Hastie don't put yourself down! Sounds like you are already testing some good things. I really like that idea of it having to show on 2 out of 3 filters. They are all in profit so that is surely a good sign! Good work!
-
@Martin Not forward testing any, no. Im a bit useless in that department. Do have a profit/loss column for games I trade. For example, I have 3 FHG strategies if the same game pops up on at least 2 of them Ill trade it(low stakes). I do the same for O 1.5, SHG and correct score. All columns in profit at the moment...
-
Heartily bloody sick of matches where the first goal goes in after about 6 or 8 minutes and then nothing happens after that. And a penalty missed. They have one job - how difficult can it be!!
-
@Tony-Hastie haha brilliant yes that counts! Have you been forward testing them? I am looking at a handful that were doing well but I have not tested since August, so I am going to test them moving forward and see how they get on.
I've created a spreadsheet for anyone who wants to have a look at what I am doing: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
I'll clean it up a bit as I go and make it easier to read.
-
Part of the reason why Musk is going after Starmer is the Online Safety Act, which could lead to the government claiming 10-15% of the revenue of social media companies not sufficiently protecting users. The EU will likely toughen its stance, hence why Musk is going after German leaders and why France is strengthening its media laws.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/online-safety-act-explainer/online-safety-act-explainer