*****New Football Thread*****
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin I'd say probably 4/5 times a week ... weekends when I watch a lot of football can be difficult.
Yesterday was a quiet day and I saw your email and ended up backing Molde to win based upon their form ... tbf they should have won so in essence it wasn't a terrible trade but I get if I'm doing this randomly then I'll see no positive outcome long term in it.
OK I have a challenge for you, I think quitting something like that is quite daunting long term. So try it for a week, say no doing it for just one week. If you get too tempted imagine me on your shoulder going 'uh, uh, uh' (think Denis in Jurrasic Park if you have seen that). Let me know how you get on! If you fail start again.
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@Greg-Mitchell It is mate ... I'm in probably the best spot I've ever been with it tbh and resisted walking away this time and just plugged away, just need to sort this last issue out in my head. I've used automation before and can see how it works well for people, think I'll use it again for certain strats especially ones that don't need a high strike rate but in all honestly I enjoy the trading side of it and deciding how I exit the trade based upon how the game is going if you know what I mean. Sounds like it's working well for you though mate so well done. Thanks for coming back I appreciate it
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning all....I'm putting myself out there to be shot at and ridiculed here as I've been trying to master this trading lark for a long time now as some of you will know I've been in and out a couple of times.
I feel I'm closer than ever to being regularly profitable but I know part of this process is self reflection and it's becoming quite obvious to me what is stopping me from making that next step....DISCIPLINE - I know it's a big one but hear me out !
Generally my discipline has improved massively this time around, I don't over stake, I exit losing trades when I should, I don't chase losses etc. BUT...
The one thing I can't seem to get enough control over is jumping on something outside my plan or filters when I believe there is an opportunity to profit ... This isn't all of the time but it's often enough to see me treading water rather than steadily building the bank, whenever I look back at a day that hasn't been profitable or even profitable days I can nearly always cite it back to a trade that was outside of my plan.
I know this should be enough to stop me doing it and sometimes it is but still too often I fall foul of this.Wondering if anybody on here had any sort of strategy or tip for stopping themselves doing this that has worked for them long term !
Thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom
It's a long road isn't it. Nearly 3 years in now and just about trained myself to "stick to the plan" and remove the emotion. I have found automation a massive help in that journey, everything I do is now automated, my horse selections get uploaded automatically. I upload my football selections after doing the calculations in the morning. I also have a number of other strategies on football/horses/greyhounds that just run automatically in BFBM and don't need any tips or selections uploading.
I used to constantly keep an eye on every bet/trade, but once everything is loaded into BFBM I don't look at it again until the following morning. I have also turned off all notifications from Betfair etc, so I'm not constantly getting a reminder of how I'm doing.
I set myself a daily profit target of 5% of my total bank (not individual strategy banks), somedays its more and somedays its less, but as long as the average is ok, I don't look into it any further.
Every morning I download and record all the bets from BFBM, check everything is ok and repeat.
Now don't get me wrong I do have the odd "out of plan" dabble if I'm watching some sport and spot an angle but I keep that totally separate from "the plan"
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@Martin I'd say probably 4/5 times a week ... weekends when I watch a lot of football can be difficult.
Yesterday was a quiet day and I saw your email and ended up backing Molde to win based upon their form ... tbf they should have won so in essence it wasn't a terrible trade but I get if I'm doing this randomly then I'll see no positive outcome long term in it.
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@Arran-Shackell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Looking historically, do you usually see such a drop in April with teams running out of steam?
You start to see strange results where teams aren't motivated and I am very careful at this time of year, think the old addage of Stoke going on their holidays after they got 40pts under Pulis.
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Morning all....I'm putting myself out there to be shot at and ridiculed here as I've been trying to master this trading lark for a long time now as some of you will know I've been in and out a couple of times.
I feel I'm closer than ever to being regularly profitable but I know part of this process is self reflection and it's becoming quite obvious to me what is stopping me from making that next step....DISCIPLINE - I know it's a big one but hear me out !
Generally my discipline has improved massively this time around, I don't over stake, I exit losing trades when I should, I don't chase losses etc. BUT...
The one thing I can't seem to get enough control over is jumping on something outside my plan or filters when I believe there is an opportunity to profit ... This isn't all of the time but it's often enough to see me treading water rather than steadily building the bank, whenever I look back at a day that hasn't been profitable or even profitable days I can nearly always cite it back to a trade that was outside of my plan.
I know this should be enough to stop me doing it and sometimes it is but still too often I fall foul of this.Wondering if anybody on here had any sort of strategy or tip for stopping themselves doing this that has worked for them long term !
Thanks in advance for any pearls of wisdom
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@Alex-Rule Great point! On that topic what do we all think is the perfect set of football strategies to have the best mix/diverse portfolio?
In terms of what I am live trading or testing, Iām looking at:
Lay Away Team
O1.5
U3.5
U1.5
SHGFeels diverse enough but interested what others think!
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Looking historically, do you usually see such a drop in April with teams running out of steam?
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@mick-mcmahon I'm finding diversity is key. You need to have a mix of set and forget and inplay strats to weather the storm. Spreading across different markets helps as well!
My main LTD strat dropped over 10 points the first weekend of April and it's still negative for the month - will be lucky to break even I think. Given me a real boost not to rest my hopes and dreams on one strat as a banker and keep creating and playing to create a set of great strats!
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@mick-mcmahon it's the same filter
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@Martin started falling apart mid Feb... I used to use the tomaz selections in the email too. The one on the site doesn't perform half as well
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@mick-mcmahon said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Is it just me or has trading gone down the toilet recently
careful with the end of season games at this time of year, make sure the teams have something to play for, good news is summer leagues kick in soon
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@Arran-Shackell yep me or Julie
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Is it just me or has trading gone down the toilet recently
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I recall the old members strategies emails used to come out early hours of the morning, was that someone sending that all along?
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@Liam-Mcnee said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Hi everyone. I was wondering how much does everyone value ROI when testing a new strategy? Is there a minimum % it needs to meet or is it just straight up how much money has it made? Thanks
The more I study it the more real profit is king. If you have 1.5% ROI but many selections you are golden, if you don't get many per week then it's less valuable.
