*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin I'm guna contradict myself here but hopefully you'll understand
I'm going to start recording the value bets and see where it gets me, the main thing I've learnt here is to always test, to me this is the biggest discipline for me, and as much as it's boring to record the data for any strategy I know it needs done before real money used.So cos there's been next to none league footy this weekend and not much matched betting opportunities, I decided to use my 'betting funds' and gave that Okayama v Blaublitz Akita match a go after looking at the statistics on the software.
I've had a string of unlucky trades that I've been trying out over the last few weeks but today the good luck gods decided to reward me with today's game.
There was 10 minites of added time on this game so decided to take my liability out at this point and sacrificed 40p and 7p respectively but still greened up nicely.
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@Simon-Bates that's what I would do, so good to test it and see what works
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@Martin, I can use the statistics for finding these 'value odds' and then put them in a spreadsheet like I do with my other strategies to test, start this way and then find any patterns?
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@Simon-Bates that's where you would start to test your theory to see if it held up.
Can't guarantee value just based on stats but it's a really good starting point.
I would look at potential teams etc and motivations as well.
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@Simon-Bates said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning all, just a quick question, this fixture came up in the daily email..
Historically it tells us that 85% of their history had under 2.5 goals, this equates to 1.17/1.18.
These are the odds for under 2.5 goals for this match
Am I right in assuming this is a value bet, is this how value bets work?
Yes
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Morning all, just a quick question, this fixture came up in the daily email..
Historically it tells us that 85% of their history had under 2.5 goals, this equates to 1.17/1.18.
These are the odds for under 2.5 goals for this match
Am I right in assuming this is a value bet, is this how value bets work?
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SHG in the Notts County v Accrington match
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SHG in the Bradford v Carlisle match
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@Simon-Bates haha we have all done that at some point I'm sure!
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Fancy Uruguay to beat Paraguay here. 1.58
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So you know I don't shy away from posting my losing trades, check out this for unlucky earlier
So was playing around again today trying different things when I noticed this game on Betfair, GrlFK we're 1 nil up when I seen this game, the other team had a red card, but I didn't look proper, and thinking GrlFK had the red card I layed them for £20 @ odds of 1.18, £3.60 liability, my thinking being that down to 10 men I'd take advantage of the low lay odds, upon realising my mistake of them not having the red card and it being the other team, I quickly cashed out for a 35p loss, it wasn't till later on when I started getting notifications of goals from Betfair that I seen that if I had of left it I'd have gotten my full £20 cos my lay bet would have won, as much as it's unlucky I can still laugh at it and what it could've been.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
SHG in the France v Italy match.
I’m also expecting a SHG in the Belgium v Israel match
While that was easy!!
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SHG in the France v Italy match.
I’m also expecting a SHG in the Belgium v Israel match
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@Martin Leading on from that do people take precautions for games the first weekend after the international break, probably not so important for this one as I assume people are being cautious as the big leagues are not fully up and running yet.
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Something that I have been looking at for fun (I know sad!) but is the XG inclusive, to get a handle of the teams in the premier league.
This was peaked by a podcast about Liverpool I listen to, they broke down this for each team and it was fascinating.
Especially in the case of Chelsea, who were the 4th best team in the league on XG inclusive last season, the reason I liked it is you can look at it and see what those teams need to do to get better.
The inclusive is everything, goals, shots, defensive etc... over the 38 game period.
United fascinated me, they were 19th in the league at conceding shots.
Just on that metric alone it make me really want to look at Chelsea, if they start scoring a few more they have a real chance for the top 4.
I also liked it because Liverpool were very high on it, but then I spoke with somebody I know who until recently worked at Betfair and he was an analyst on the odds, he said they were using this stat to look at where teams would finish and price up the winners and relegation market.
He stated that XG per game they didn't really like, how they are using it is to look at longer data sets and then see if the trends fit.
One of the things he said they like to do is use that as a base then see if its starting to change, he used the example of Ugarte, will he stop united conceding so many shots on their goal? Maybe but he also said that even if that happens they still have the same goalie and same manager who has set them up in the way they have been set up to get the poor XG.
Really interesting stuff. Well is for me!
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@Martin I will take selections on a case by case basis. Since there are less of them popping up you can deep dive a bit more.
Had South Shields v Buxton on a FHG filter for inplay and I think the National League is so far removed from the big leagues I decided to take it.
Only about £500 matched which I guess can be annoying as you move into bigger staking and scaling.
Do you and anyone else think that during these periods that the lower league games liquidity and odds get distorted by big boy/girl traders dropping £100s into relatively small games?
