*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin - not sure if you or anyone else can help me with this....
Price drifting. For set and forget I tend to place my bets in the morn before work. I've just checked an one of them that got matched at 1.8, the current price is 1.96!
Does anyone know now to spot which way the odds will drift? Either coming in so you can jump on early, or going out so you can back later on or leave a higher bet on? Ta
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Anyone else find it infuriating how much they talked about the artificial surface in Villa commentary last night? Like players would have never kicked a ball on an artificial surface! Think pretty much any player who has played at youth level at any standard would have at least spent hundreds of hours playing on those kinds of surfaces!
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@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Just looking at all the past football results I have recorded, never looked before, but when filling in my scores I always got a feeling that most Argentinian games ended Under 3.5 goals. so here's the results for any league with more than 50 scores recorded:
I don’t trade Argentine football for that reason. Lack of goals
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Just looking at all the past football results I have recorded, never looked before, but when filling in my scores I always got a feeling that most Argentinian games ended Under 3.5 goals. so here's the results for any league with more than 50 scores recorded:
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Anyone who watched the Birmingham game that is an example of where one team has all the momentum after going behind. Keep your eyes out for games like that.
Even at 1-1 you could back Birmingham around 1.9 and lay over 2.5 goals at 1.12 as a saver knowing there is a huge chance they score next and if not it probably ends 1-1.
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anyone going for under 3.5 in the parma game? they scored 1-0 in the first two minutes! its 1.5?
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@Joe-Beeston I found if you add a filter for an odds market, then depending on timing if that market doesn't exist yet, then that would count as not fitting the criteria and not show in your selections.
Granted generally on the day of a match all the markets should be active, but just something to be aware of if looking at tomorrow or further.
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@Joe-Beeston yeah that's probably the easiest way
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As part of the super trader framework, it mentions about taking a range of different pre match prices, not necessarily the 1 or 2 markets you would be trading.
Which do you think is the best way to do this? Manually going through betfair for each match that comes on to your filter, or just adding the betfair odds into the filter itself and setting it to greater than or equal to 1.01.
Just testing an over 1.5 goals strat where i might enter 15 minutes into instead of pre match but the framework suggests getting a range of different odds (Match odds, over 1.5, over 2.5, BTTS) Just trying to think of the most efficient way to do it.
Thanks
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Not gonna lie. Had a poor weekend. Will make up for it with the Champions League this week
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@Joe-Beeston without testing this hypothesis (using software or the good old-fashioned way of monitoring odds movement/time decay and relative strike rates etc), there's no real way of actually knowing the answer to this. I've learned to take the approach that if a market has pre-match value, then you can carry that forward into the in-play markets to help better manage positions, "control" losses, and eek out extra profit. I know people who use this exact approach and have done extremely well out of it.
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Layed Villa for £5 when they 1 nil up.
Trade came good.
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@Shannon-Townsend that's twice now and I wasn't on either
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@Simon-Bates Everton the dream 2up matched betting strategy team at the minute
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When Everton went 2 nil up today, I layed £10 on them.
After Villa had scored their 3rd I just cashed out.
I like these trades
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@Akiva-Anderson Anyone think AI could destroy the betting industry more than the betting industry has already done?
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I’ve also went for a SHG in the Real Betis v Leganes match
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Going for a SHG in the St Etienne v Lille match.
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@Joe-Beeston Hi Joe,I certainly would do as then you would have an idea of the odds you need to achieve at the new entry point.
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Hypothetical situation with testing over 1.5.
If we have a strike rate of 80%, the break even is 1.25 odds. After reviewing the average first goal time, I decide not to enter until the 15th minute. Is there a risk that the 80% no longer stands as this could have been gained because of goals scored in the first 15 minutes, which I would no longer be getting by entering later?
Would you essentially have to rework your strike rate from the new entry point?
Hopefully that makes sense.
