*****New Football Thread*****
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@Alex-Rule What's your expected/back tested Strike Rate? This will affect the max odds you want to lay at.
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Morning boys and girls!
I'm testing a new lay the draw set and forget strategy - currently I don't have any odds filters for the Lay price of the draw. Does anyone have a quick or good idea of how to calculate what my lay limits should be so I don't wipe out my profit? @Ryan you do a lot of this if I am thinking right?
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw
I didn't watch, so the inplay stats were very different from the the way the game played out? Why Leicester wouldn't put some effort in baffles me but their away scoring record is terrible and Newcastle don't concede much at home.
What were the chances like that Newcastle missed then?
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@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay Under 1.5:
I'll analyse this loss as I do with all my losses but on the face of it the problem doesn't appear to be end of season related. Newcastle missed 3big chances/hit woodwork and Leicester who need the points offered nothing!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
The winter leagues are coming to an end...bad times. There should still be enough football to trade June / July...good times!!
Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, MLS & Brazil are my favourites
Add to that Nations League Semi-Finals + Finals, two rounds of European Qualification...
And Champions League Qualifiers, Europa League Qualifiers & Conference League Qualifiers...
And the Scottish League Cup Group games start on the 15th July - Always good for goals.
Not the famine a lot of people are predicting.
Should be able to grow the bank by around 25%
Hear Hear!
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
SHG in the Inter Turku vs Mariehamn mach. 0-0 at HT
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SHG in the Haka vs VPS match. 2-2 at HT
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The winter leagues are coming to an end...bad times. There should still be enough football to trade June / July...good times!!
Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, MLS & Brazil are my favourites
Add to that Nations League Semi-Finals + Finals, two rounds of European Qualification...
And Champions League Qualifiers, Europa League Qualifiers & Conference League Qualifiers...
And the Scottish League Cup Group games start on the 15th July - Always good for goals.
Not the famine a lot of people are predicting.
Should be able to grow the bank by around 25%
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Taff-Phillips said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Do you stick to the "don't trade the last 5 games of the season" rule/advice religiously or just use it as a guide?
I'm just considering in terms of your Over 1.5 Split Stake Strategy and today's selection (Newcastle vs Leicester). Both teams still have stuff to play for, be it Champions League football next year or just surviving the relegation drop. I personally feel this is a game with goals as Leicester have to get some more points on the board so must be pushing. Whilst Newcastle could shut up shop for a draw and one point would see them right, I think Leicester needing something from both remaining games make this game an opportunity missed if not traded.
Thoughts?
Anyone else feel free to pitch in, all opinions welcome.
Not a professional and only recently profitable but I pay no attention to it all. From my much more limited experience I find games at the end of the season more open and the odds can sometimes reflect this.
In short, it's a qualifier for me as well and I'll be trading it.
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Do you stick to the "don't trade the last 5 games of the season" rule/advice religiously or just use it as a guide?
I'm just considering in terms of your Over 1.5 Split Stake Strategy and today's selection (Newcastle vs Leicester). Both teams still have stuff to play for, be it Champions League football next year or just surviving the relegation drop. I personally feel this is a game with goals as Leicester have to get some more points on the board so must be pushing. Whilst Newcastle could shut up shop for a draw and one point would see them right, I think Leicester needing something from both remaining games make this game an opportunity missed if not traded.
Thoughts?
Anyone else feel free to pitch in, all opinions welcome.
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim
The tiniest tiniest profit and the tinieest new bank high
2-0
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Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Lay Under 1.5 Ajax
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Gonna get this one up nice and early in case I forget. Lay Under 1.5:
3-3
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Was trying to get the whole weekend done but I've run out of time so will post again at some stage tomorrow. These are tonight's and tomorrow's. All lay under 1.5's:
Very unexpected in Almere but I'll make a positive out of it for sure.
3/4 on these but around a 3pt loss.
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Gonna get this one up nice and early in case I forget. Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've went for Over 1.5 Goals in the Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu match.
