*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

My testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Akiva Anderson

@Stephen-Hancox said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson shame, he prefers to be back on £300k per week at United. Makes sense from a financial point of view but having so much money so easily has perhaps affected his ambition and drive. Likely the same with Rashford. United really do need to get their recruitment costs etc in order

I think United will do okay next season. No European distractions.

Stephen Hancox

@Akiva-Anderson shame, he prefers to be back on £300k per week at United. Makes sense from a financial point of view but having so much money so easily has perhaps affected his ambition and drive. Likely the same with Rashford. United really do need to get their recruitment costs etc in order

Akiva Anderson

Jadon Sancho - mad how far he has fallen.

Ryan

Yeh I agree, goal for me is to get to a good data set maybe by end of this month (June) or even mid July then have a real look at what’s been happening, I will probs jump on a zoom with you and we can do it together lol.

Richard Latimer

@Martin in Brazil I have such a small window where the odds seem to work but there is enough data to suggest it's not coincidence.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer interesting to note, I also find the overnight South American games aren't great

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Ryan I think with some filtering these can be very good, there are some games like play off ones that would be automatic no trades for me, also some leagues that have been really bad (looking at you Republic of Ireland!)

@Martin no surprise on Ireland. The data on my over 1.5 system is woeful for Ireland.

Martin

@Ryan I think with some filtering these can be very good, there are some games like play off ones that would be automatic no trades for me, also some leagues that have been really bad (looking at you Republic of Ireland!)

Ryan

Today's Over 2.5

DO NOT PLACE These!

This is something I am testing, of course they crash and burn when I start posting them lol

30/05/2025 18:00:00 Antalyaspor Trabzonspor
30/05/2025 19:45:00 Sligo Rovers St. Patricks
30/05/2025 19:45:00 Waterford Drogheda
30/05/2025 19:45:00 Bohemians Derry City
30/05/2025 20:00:00 Shamrock Rovers Galway
30/05/2025 23:00:00 Vila Nova FC Novorizontino

They were flying now taken a real downturn, will keep gathering data and keep testing - there's something in this.

Alex Rule

@MICHAEL-ROBERTS Yeah was frustrating viewing - got out at the red card so about broke even. These happen sometimes, been on a bit of roll with inplay of late but they still hurt when they don't go your way!

Ryan

Today's Over 2.5's.

29/05/2025 15:00:00 Vestri Vikingur Reykjavik
29/05/2025 17:00:00 Brommapojkarna Djurgarden
29/05/2025 18:00:00 Ghazl El Mahallah El Ismaily
29/05/2025 18:00:00 Masr Smouha
29/05/2025 18:00:00 Al Ittihad Enppi
29/05/2025 18:00:00 Karagumruk Bandirmaspor
29/05/2025 19:30:00 Cremonese Spezia
30/05/2025 01:35:00 Ferroviaria Botafogo SP

Yesterday was a loss of £29.70.
Current running total £220.70 in profit.
Avg Odds 2.18
SR 48.94%

MICHAEL ROBERTS

@Alex-Rule Hi Alex, unlucky on this one mate. Maybe if Pharco FC didn’t get a red early in the SH it might have been OK.

I did the same thing the other week on this:

Buriram Utd v Nongbua Pitchaya FC : Over/Under 6.5 Goals @6.9 Odds

And guess what the final score was! that’s right 7-0 unbelievable. Lesson learnt as I didn’t even trade out I let it run (as a sort of S&F)

Nikki HALSALL

@Richard-Latimer Ha, hilarious, and a tad scary, impressed with the sarcastic humour though.

Alex Rule

@Shannon-Townsend cheers. I'm trying new approach for inplay trades. Slowing down and picking the best looking value selections. I'll trade out/remove liability if it goes South and should be able to get out for even money.

Also good to get the groups feedback and make sure I'm on the right lines. And if others can make some money off it then all the better.

Shannon Townsend

@Alex-Rule even on o2.5 the odds are saying there is a 66% chance it goes over... thats a huge descripancy.

looks like they are both reasonably solid defensively but Cairo also look like they can score and are at home so could be interesting... who knows what will happen but you have certainly found some value.

Ryan

@Alex-Rule Got this on my list too, looks a cracker.

Alex Rule

Game I've got my eye on a little bit later
Al Ahly Cairo v Pharco FC - Lay over 3.5 goals at 2.3 and lay over 4.5 at 4

Seems like some short prices that could be value to trade. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

Ryan

@Richard-Latimer Bloody ell thats brutal!

Shannon Townsend

@Richard-Latimer thats amazing