*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Akiva-Anderson that is promising then... think it is the only way to make VAR work long term...
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@Shannon-Townsend said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Think your points are very valid and ref is the main reason delays...
Make VAR a review system like Cricket... 2 each a half and you keep them if you're correct
Give a max time to take a set piece or play switches to other team
Copy rugby and clock stops when ball out of play
They've been using that review system in the Under 20 World Cup in Chile. We're at the semi-final stage tonight. I like it. Each team has two reviews over 90 minutes. If the referee changes their decision, then the team doesn't lose the review. They only lose a review if the original decision stands. Each team gets an additional review if the game goes into extra time.
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Think your points are very valid and ref is the main reason delays...
Make VAR a review system like Cricket... 2 each a half and you keep them if you're correct
Give a max time to take a set piece or play switches to other team
Copy rugby and clock stops when ball out of play
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@Akiva-Anderson funny how they manage to get physios on in a much more dangerous sport like rugby and keep playing isn't it!
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"Premier League matches this season are lasting an average of 100 minutes and 36 seconds, but the ball is only in play for 54.7% of that time according to new data"
What can be done to improve the amount of time that the ball is in play?
I've a few things:
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Stop the officials interfering at every corner. No need to warn players for pushing and shoving at every corner. Give a foul if it is needed.
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Stop interrupting play when a player is down injured (unless it's a head injury). If play is stopped and the physio is not needed, then the player should be forced off the field.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson got to be good for ltd that league!
Yes, and good for FHG. SHG and Over 1.5 Goals
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@Akiva-Anderson got to be good for ltd that league!
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The Australian A-League starts back on Friday!
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@Martin raw data is around 770 selections since 21 Dec.
Selections I'm using to lay home almost 235.
Selections in leagues doing poorly (alot of Central and South American leagues but not all) just under 160. Would be almost 50% s/r at average odds around 3.5 I think.
The rest are filtered out. About 40% s/r with similar odds.
Initially I'm just laying the home but I'm trying not to waste any data anymore.
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@Patrik-Mellqvist fantastic write up! I love the analogy of trading as an art form, I tend to just look at is as maths but I totally get why looking at it creatively like that helps.
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@Shannon-Townsend sounds promising! Mine is around 230 selections so still early days too
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@Richard-Latimer how many selections have you got on that so far?
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
We all do things in our own way (!)
Because – what works for one trader might not work for another.
In that – Ryan starts with odds and filters, searching for a path through the noise.
So that – another can take a ready-made template and extract something entirely new.
By – doodling and sketching over my mosaic paintings (spreadsheets), I start to see anomalies and hidden flows.
About – discovering the peculiar and the rare, which often hides where it’s least expected.
So that – each “painting” becomes a silent messenger, a picture that speaks when you’re ready to listen.It highlights that – a correct-score market strategy turned into both leverage and a goal-fest, a kind of push-and-pull festival.
It reinforces that – all it took was a strong strike ratio of goals averaging 2+ per match, birthing three distinct methods.The missing link that turns silver apples into golden eggs.
Because – Ryan’s Split Stake stands as a solid and time-tested method, even through my modest understanding.
In that – an 80 % strike ratio across 200+ plays is a strong signal, especially with zero complaints.
So that – just like targeting “next goal in the second half,” Ryan’s Split can be applied the same way.
By – adding a five-minute rule, letting the stake remain, allowing a 1–2 tick drift (before cashout) and when a second goal lands – a 100 % profit pot.
About – noticing the small details isn’t only about personal experience, but also about learning from others’ successes and failures.
So that – regardless of others’ skill or luck, you keep tracking those small deviations – they might hold value elsewhere.It highlights that – as we wrote in The Gift, knowledge can come from every corner, even the ones the clean-minded avoid.
It reinforces that – when we play with the market’s own money instead of our own, within structured pre-loss sequences, we’re already outside the textbooks. -
@Martin I have a back the home team which is in its early stages but already looking like it my well be a lay the home team as lots of draws and away wins meaning it is losing terribly at the minute (paper only at this stage)... need something as my LTD is doing ok but is slow and needs me to be actually trading which proves quite difficult some weeks...
quick check and from 165 selections it has made 16 pt loss backing the home team and 6pts profit by laying them... early days...
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
I believe the raw data and excluded selections on my home lay may prove to be a very profitable home back system in the future.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
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@Akiva-Anderson I agree with all youve said and have made the move from desperation to patience in the time that I have been here. What I have been unable to develop is a love for the game...which I am now certain you need to be succesful in football trading. Its dead annoying tbh as there is so much football to trade! If I could find a strat that didnt require me to dig deeper into stats I dont really care about, and not have to watch even 10 minutes of a game Id be laughing
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@Akiva-Anderson This aligns with a lot of my thinking, on a few of the points.
Patience is the killer to a lot of traders, we have seen it over the years where people come in here all guns blazing and then leave, they come back 2 months later, still the same... you've got to give yourself time.
I loved Dan, who every month took a bit of his profit and took his wife out, knowing some months and this happened he could only buy her a pack of custard creams - but he got the reward for the effort and took the time to get profitable.
I also think a big part of it is belief, you have to believe you can do it, many dont really fully believe and this clouds their judgement 'It’s easier to by cynical than improve yourself - don’t be a victim, don’t give up at the first sign of failure, stop complaining about the situation and doing nothing about it.'
I think what people also need to do is look at what they are doing and be honest, was it a you mistake? Like did you overtake? Go off plan?
Was it a good trade that didnt make money? With the EV on your side etc...? Because theres a huge difference in those things.
