*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Ryan Yeh that probably was the right call. Although did get Ath Madrid at around 50s earlier in the competition and now halved in odds. Will probably be more interesting from a trading perspective once the full knockout draw is understood.
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For me I looked at the outright in the champions league but I decided to swerve it this year because its a new format with this league set up (Which I actually like & not just because Liverpool have won it).
What I wanted to know and see this year was how was it going to work?
I think its affected teams like Real who basically were able to coast through the group and then start taking it more seriously a bit further into the tournament.
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A few tonight and among my over 2.5 split stake will be : Out after 55 if no goal
Osijek vs Sibenik
FC Volendam vs Maastricht
Wolfsburg vs Kiel -
@Martin Yeh their league form isn’t great and probably the reason for the odds sticking to where they are. Still think their betfair odds aren’t reflective of their chances at 80s. B365 have them at 51. That feels more accurate.
Real Madrid at 7.2 looks decent as well. Not sure I’d have Arsenal as more likely to win the thing than Madrid but that’s what the odds are saying right now.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Surely United beat Rangers tonight?
I got united at 1.62. They were very lucky. United are actually awful. That rangers team are dire.
Seems to have got a lot worse after Ten Hag surprisingly!
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@Andy-Donnelly will be interesting for Milan because their league form is so poor that all they really have to play for is CL this year.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Surely United beat Rangers tonight?
I got united at 1.62. They were very lucky. United are actually awful. That rangers team are dire.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Surely United beat Rangers tonight?
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Milan are killing me on the outrights markets on champs league. Backed them about 4 game weeks ago as saw their fixture list was relatively easy and thought top 8 was a real possibility. They have since done exactly as I expected and won all those games but the market has still gone against me. Not expecting them to win the thing, but was expecting their odds may drop to around 40ish at some point.
Thankfully Leverkusen and At Madrid trades have performed better
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@Akiva-Anderson same, i lost.... I should of traded out after Leaos goal
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@Akiva-Anderson i did this..... but traded out on the first goal
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I’ve went for over 1.5 goals in the AC Milan v Girona match.
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
At the other end of the spectrum, I was being ultra cautious at HT in an A-League game. It was 0-0 with only 4 goal attempts and no shots on goal at all. I took a small loss (rather than take a big one) only to see 4 goals go in in the second half!
I had over 1.5 goals in that match. The A-League does that quite regularly. I love that league
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At the other end of the spectrum, I was being ultra cautious at HT in an A-League game. It was 0-0 with only 4 goal attempts and no shots on goal at all. I took a small loss (rather than take a big one) only to see 4 goals go in in the second half!
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson the best ones aren't they!
I think so! I thought it was a losing trade, but when the goal went in I celebrated as if my team had won the league!
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@Akiva-Anderson the best ones aren't they!
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Over 1.5 Goals:
19:45 - Peterborough v Exeter
The chances of over 1.5 goals being scored in the Peterborough United vs. Exeter City match tonight (January 21, 2025) are quite high. Historical data and statistical analyses suggest that this outcome is probable for several reasons:
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Historical Trends: Peterborough has scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches against Exeter across all competitions, indicating a strong likelihood of multiple goals when these teams meet.
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Statistical Odds: The probability of over 1.5 goals in this match is supported by betting markets and analysis, with odds heavily favoring this outcome. For example, one source lists over 1.5 goals as a highly likely outcome with odds of 17/100, reflecting a strong expectation of at least two goals being scored.
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Goal Scoring Patterns:
• Peterborough averages 2.05 goals per game this season, while Exeter averages 1.50 goals per game.
• Both teams have been involved in matches with more than 2.5 goals frequently this season—15 times for Peterborough and 13 times for Exeter. -
Predicted Scorelines: The most likely scoreline prediction for a Peterborough win is 2-1 (9.74% probability), which inherently supports the likelihood of over 1.5 goals being scored.
Given these factors, the chances of over 1.5 goals in tonight’s match are very high, making it a reasonable expectation based on historical performance, current form, and statistical probabilities.
injury time goal to make this a winner!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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Over 1.5 Goals:
19:45 - Peterborough v Exeter
The chances of over 1.5 goals being scored in the Peterborough United vs. Exeter City match tonight (January 21, 2025) are quite high. Historical data and statistical analyses suggest that this outcome is probable for several reasons:
1. Historical Trends: Peterborough has scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches against Exeter across all competitions, indicating a strong likelihood of multiple goals when these teams meet. 2. Statistical Odds: The probability of over 1.5 goals in this match is supported by betting markets and analysis, with odds heavily favoring this outcome. For example, one source lists over 1.5 goals as a highly likely outcome with odds of 17/100, reflecting a strong expectation of at least two goals being scored.-
Goal Scoring Patterns:
• Peterborough averages 2.05 goals per game this season, while Exeter averages 1.50 goals per game.
• Both teams have been involved in matches with more than 2.5 goals frequently this season—15 times for Peterborough and 13 times for Exeter. -
Predicted Scorelines: The most likely scoreline prediction for a Peterborough win is 2-1 (9.74% probability), which inherently supports the likelihood of over 1.5 goals being scored.
Given these factors, the chances of over 1.5 goals in tonight’s match are very high, making it a reasonable expectation based on historical performance, current form, and statistical probabilities.
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