*****New Football Thread*****

Alex Rule

Selection Kicking off shortly - Al-Muharraq v East Riffa 17:00

Home team have won 9/10 of their home games
Away team have lost 9/10 of their away games.
Home team have scored in 10/10 of their home games
Away team have conceded in 8/10 of their away games

Should be a shout of laying the away - matched at 4.2

Shannon Townsend

@Ryan thanks Ryan, very helpful, i am recording goal times etc... will report back when have some more selections recorded.

Ryan

@Shannon-Townsend Here's a few pointers on that, check the time of the first goal, check how many games have goals in.

My thinking here is that there is value in them & goals, then you might be able to highlight which ones have a goal in them again.

For example if a goal is scored in this window... 0-30 then there is a goal 90% of times in the rest of the data. You could then back the next overs or lay the current scoreline.

Works in reverse too, might be if there is ZERO goals in this window then there is a 90% of times in the rest of the data of no more goals - so you can actually back under 1.5 for example there.

Trading wise on them as well there might be something like a split stake plan for the over 1.5 or like you say LTD.

Also any half have more goals than others? Thats also something I like to check.

Shannon Townsend

@Ryan indeed, am hoping to find some sort of trading angle from these selections... if they are value at kick off but set and forget very up and down then they are hopefully value to trade out after goal one or enter later etc etc... just tracking without too much thought at the minute as am all over my LTD strat...

Ryan

From my last post that day made a loss of £34.10 - what did I tell you about posting, at the end of that day the RT stood at £243.90 the new total is £270.30 and today's are:

21/05/2025 11:00:00 Kawasaki Frontale Urawa
21/05/2025 11:00:00 Yokohama M. Kobe
21/05/2025 16:00:00 Ilves KuPS
21/05/2025 19:30:00 Juve Stabia Cremonese
21/05/2025 19:30:00 Catanzaro Spezia

AGAIN do not put money on these, my actual aim with these is to get this working so well that I can give you all them as set and forgets.

Ryan

@Shannon-Townsend that was an almost game as well with the 2 goals!

Alex Rule

@Stephen-Hancox said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule We're lucky to have you in this room posting insights like these

Cheers @Stephen-Hancox - my set and forget has had a rough April and May but I'm feeling this may be to end of season skewing, not that my strats are crap as I has first thought. Take away might be to stop or dive deeper at this time of year next time around.

I'll keep posting any gem bets that I find for trading inplay as these are building my confidence and give me a chance to get feedback from the group. And if others can make some money off them then all the better

Alex Rule

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule hope I didn't talk you out of it

I talked myself out of it TBH aha - it looked like it was the last game of the season in the 16 team league. Both were mid table so I'm guessing the assumption was there was nothing to play for so it would be on the beach football.

Well done if anyone backed it!

Stephen Hancox

@Alex-Rule We're lucky to have you in this room posting insights like these

Richard Latimer

@Alex-Rule hope I didn't talk you out of it

Richard Latimer

@Alex-Rule Also, fine knowing goals have been scored but who has actually put the ball in the net. I'm guessing it's the opposition more times than either of these 2 teams considering their league position.

IMO goals scored are more important than goals conceded although all have a part to play.

Richard Latimer

@Alex-Rule Septemvri already safe and Lokomotiva only need a draw to be safe themselves.

Neither team has motive to do anything. Doesn't mean they won't of course but two poor teams who have escaped by the skin of their teeth.

Alex Rule

Can't tell if I'm going mad or not seeing something here?

LTD price of 1.78 and it the stats indicate that there will be a goal in the game. Is this too good to be true? Does everyone else know something?

Alex Rule

Looking at another potential value pick today

Beitar Jerusalem v Hapoel Beer Sheva 18:30 -
LAY over 3.5 goals at 2.3 currently LAY over 4.5 at 3.8.

Both selections winners!

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson Villa must be delighted with their end of season games, the two teams who could not care less!

Akiva Anderson

Aston Villa odds have dropped quite a bit. Only 1.35 to beat Spurs. Obviously Spurs are resting players for the Europa League final next week and will probably field the under 12's disability team against Villa.

Still think there's value in Villa at 1.35.

Martin

One thing I have noticed is that playoffs are a pain, notice a couple of losses yesterday were play offs.

But also some leagues call the 2nd part of the season playoffs.

I guess the solution is to look at the matches on the shortlist and see if they are playoffs like Charlton and Cruz Azul or if they are league matches disguised as playoff games.

Shannon Townsend

@Ryan i have been tracking similar for two months now with promising results although i look for nearer 10% gap in odds and my stats probability... from 170 selections i currently have 18pts profit... from the selections you list below the only one i have for today is the Ossauna game...

Ryan

@Andy-Donnelly Right now this is pretty loose anything with a 3% increase in value, I am going to be tracking this a lot to see the impact on it.

Andy Donnelly

@Ryan Nice start. How much of a gap do you want to see to make a selection qualify?