*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
@Mark-Maguire I do not think you ramble at all, really well executed replies to be honest.
Love it.
That’s a great way of looking at it, I really like the idea of adding extra to the winners too and maximising what you are already doing.
You have already done the work in finding the trade you might as well maximise the return from the work you are already doing.
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@Ryan PS some of the thinking on the staking came from that Tom Hougaard book I mentioned ages ago (Best Loser wins).
In basic terms he was advocating his strategy in the stock market trades - minimising losses of course but also maximising returns when it goes your way - hence the re-investment of green whilst mitigating risk.
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No I have that
it's all pretty straight forward.So presuming we are using £20 stakes for ease, it's 4 stakes of £5.
If the score is 0-0 at 15 mins when we add 20% to our £5 stake so we make that a £6 stake instead (20% of £5 is £1).
I do like the ease of the stake one and two are just in and you know where you are by 15 mins, then can be waiting till 35mins to get in again.
By 35 mins you have allowed the first 15/20 mins of teams settling in, playing themselves into the game - but also have some exposure if the game has been open.
On the caveat, by that point you have the full profit on the over 2.5 goals you are in a situation where there is 2 goals before the 55 mins period - you would then close that trade out take a profit and say put 20% of the profit on the Over 4.5 goals?
@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Yes so basically my approach is this (without wanting to over complicate things) - I have found that on my filters the following are two key points to consider:
A significant proportion of games (35% overall) have goals in the first 15 minutes meaning to not go in at the start would dismiss too many winning trades.
In 90% of my refined selections if there is a goal in the first 15 minutes there goes on to be a second in the game.
Having said that the third aspect is I've done quite a lot on odds depreciation so that will explain the slight quirk at 15 minutes which follows.
So bearing the above in mind this is the way I work on 02.5 stakes.
Odds: Generally unless the odds are stupidly low on 02.5 I don't worry about them and always go in from the start.
Stake One: 1/4 stake goes in at kick off.
NB. If goal in first fifteen minutes I green to free bet, and then importantly follow same rules for further stakes 2, 3, 4 and out after 55 if no second goal.
Stake Two: 1/4 stake goes in at fifteen minutes.
NB. If no goal in first fifteen minutes I take the loss to that point and re enter a stake equivalent to 1/4 plus 20% of the first stake (does that make sense?) - I've found from my maths that the depreciation from the first stake is too quick so I am better taking the small loss and reinvesting from 15 minutes onward.
NB. At this point I should say that stake one and two are automatic and not related to inplay stats.
Stake Three: Next stake is 1/4 at 35 minutes - depending on a minimum of 2 shots on target for one team.
Stake Four Next stake is 1/4 at 45 mins assuming another 2 shots on target (between the two teams).
If no goal Out after 55 minutes.
One caveat being that if there is a second goal in a game that has had a goal in the first fifteen I will take full green but reinvest a proportion in 04.5 or o5.5 markets because my stats tell me that early goals often lead to several more.
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@Ryan hey Ryan.
Yes so basically my approach is this (without wanting to over complicate things) - I have found that on my filters the following are two key points to consider:
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A significant proportion of games (35% overall) have goals in the first 15 minutes meaning to not go in at the start would dismiss too many winning trades.
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In 90% of my refined selections if there is a goal in the first 15 minutes there goes on to be a second in the game.
Having said that the third aspect is I've done quite a lot on odds depreciation so that will explain the slight quirk at 15 minutes which follows.
So bearing the above in mind this is the way I work on 02.5 stakes.
Odds: Generally unless the odds are stupidly low on 02.5 I don't worry about them and always go in from the start.
Stake One: 1/4 stake goes in at kick off.
NB. If goal in first fifteen minutes I green to free bet, and then importantly follow same rules for further stakes 2, 3, 4 and out after 55 if no second goal.
Stake Two: 1/4 stake goes in at fifteen minutes.
NB. If no goal in first fifteen minutes I take the loss to that point and re enter a stake equivalent to 1/4 plus 20% of the first stake (does that make sense?) - I've found from my maths that the depreciation from the first stake is too quick so I am better taking the small loss and reinvesting from 15 minutes onward.
NB. At this point I should say that stake one and two are automatic and not related to inplay stats.
Stake Three: Next stake is 1/4 at 35 minutes - depending on a minimum of 2 shots on target for one team.
Stake Four Next stake is 1/4 at 45 mins assuming another 2 shots on target (between the two teams).
If no goal Out after 55 minutes.
One caveat being that if there is a second goal in a game that has had a goal in the first fifteen I will take full green but reinvest a proportion in 04.5 or o5.5 markets because my stats tell me that early goals often lead to several more.
Have I done your head in?
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@Mark-Maguire My understand then is that you are backing over 2.5 goals from the start?
Then if theres a goal in the first 15 mins you leave all the green on the over 2.5 goals?
IF the goal is after 15 mins you green out? Always after the goal?
55 mins is the cut off no matter what?
0-0 OUT - resulting in a loss
1 goal FREE bet version - close free bet at 55 for profit
other scenario you would be out because goal between 16-55 you take the profit and move on. -
Both worked yesterday albeit that West Ham goal came just before it was time to get out.
West Ham vs Wolves
Jong PSV vs RodaPossibility of the Leeds vs Boro game qualifying for me today
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Been looking at Over 1.5 goals value bets for a while now. These are matches that the odds are better than the probability of the outcome.
Collecting data at the moment, but it is looking promising. Will also start looking for value in Home Team Win
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Full house yesterday, looking at maybe a couple later on
Hamburg vs Darmstadt
Panserraikos vs PAOK
Servette vs Winterthur
Sassuolo vs SampdoriaTonight will cautiously look at the following for 02.5
West Ham vs Wolves.. concern is how much appears to be riding on the game
Jong PSV vs Roda -
Next trade im on is Subotica v TSC SHG. decent odds and stats.
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And we go again. Over 3.5 FHG at 1.4 at the moment is a great price.
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Im backing another. This don't finish 2-0 at half time.
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Early goal. Another will most likely come in the 1st half here.
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FHG in Tottenham v chelsea is my next trade but waiting for decent odds. Think this game will be so open so looking to make a few trades.
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Away with SHG in last 21 games.
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Next is liberec v Teplice SHG. Great stats to this.
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Inplay I'm on is SHG in the Radomje v Primorje game. Great odds and stats.
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I've started looking at the daily email in more detail now.
Then this one today just came in for me
Did another one off the email.
So I usually go for the email statistics where the games state there's an opportunity for a lot of goals, these ones are the ones I win with, but today I tried a different angle, I went through the email list and chose the teams with a high elo rating and put them in a £3 acca, didn't work out how I wanted so just guna keep my eye on the high elo games and see what % actually come off.
