*****New Football Thread*****

[Stuart Capstick]

@Richard-Latimer

Basically, to be 95% confident that your margin of error is 5% or less, you need a sample of 385.

If you want greater confidence and a lower margin of error, you need larger samples.

The above is largely used for survey data.

A better way to test betting/trading results is to test the p value (probability that your results are due to chance alone).

[Richard Latimer]

@Greg-Mitchell said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Joseph-Henderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks

Statistically, if you have a strategy whose number of selections will be unlimited, then 385 is the most you should have to track to be 95% confident that they are representative of an unlimited number of selections.

Obviously this is quite a lot and could take some time (strategy dependent). When starting a new strategy, I tend to use 80 as the first stop, as this represents an 95% confidence for a sample number of 100 selections. Then I review every further 50 selections until I have a total of 385 and then stop changing things.

Whether this is right or wrong, I dunno, I'm sure some statistics whizz will disagree, but it works for me.

Why 385? what's the significance of this number? Curious

[Greg Mitchell]

@Joseph-Henderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks

Statistically, if you have a strategy whose number of selections will be unlimited, then 385 is the most you should have to track to be 95% confident that they are representative of an unlimited number of selections.

Obviously this is quite a lot and could take some time (strategy dependent). When starting a new strategy, I tend to use 80 as the first stop, as this represents an 95% confidence for a sample number of 100 selections. Then I review every further 50 selections until I have a total of 385 and then stop changing things.

Whether this is right or wrong, I dunno, I'm sure some statistics whizz will disagree, but it works for me.

[Joseph Henderson]

How many selections would you suggest collating before applying a min odds filter? Thanks

[Martin]

@Karl-Pick big odds on the Chelsea one!

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5:

I should stick to laying the overs at the moment haha! Still a green month provided Keflavik don't screw it up.

They've screwed it up. What a crappy day to follow yesterday!

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5:

I should stick to laying the overs at the moment haha! Still a green month provided Keflavik don't screw it up.

[A Former User]

@Martin.... Wonder what price you would have got if you had backed Chelsea and West Ham to finish 5th and 6th in the London Part of the premiership???

[Martin]

Good to see the summer leagues kicking in!

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

@Martin thanks Martin

[Martin]

@Richard-Latimer well done mate great stuff!

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Getting these out early. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:

Another successful over lay @ odds of 1.41

3/3 and the last one I laid @ 1.18

[Martin]

Going to be a dramatic final day this isn't it!

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Getting these out early. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:

Another successful over lay @ odds of 1.41

[Richard Latimer]

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Poor old Dortmund!

Why have a guy take a penalty for you in such a big moment who has never done so before? Will never understand the mentality of some footballing decisions!

Didn't realise he had. 11 straight years Bayern have won it now apparently!

[Martin]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Poor old Dortmund!

Why have a guy take a penalty for you in such a big moment who has never done so before? Will never understand the mentality of some footballing decisions!

[Richard Latimer]

Getting these out early. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:

[Richard Latimer]

Poor old Dortmund!

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5:

That's all for today

3/3......somehow