*****New Football Thread*****
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@Craig-vaulks You could have a look at Chris's thoughts on this here:
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4450/shg-in-play-trading/2
You will find a link in the opening post to an analysis of over 4000 games that were 0-0 at HT and the stats for a SHG pertaining to those games.
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@Craig-vaulks Learn from my mistakes. Something that will sound obvious but I’ve been working on a SHG filter for ages and was so obsessed on getting a high strike rate and didn’t look enough at whether the odds were value against it. I did set an odds limit that would give me a margin and was queuing to that price at HT, but in the end so many games had a goal before they hit the odds and the selections that did get matched simply weren’t profitable in the long run.
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@Martin Hi Martin, do we have a date for the backtesting software yet?
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What are peoples thoughts/tactics around the shg strategy? I have been looking into it a fair bit and doing it myself for a little while.
The general idea I see is find games with 5 or more shots on target in the 1st half and also a over 85% chance of a goal in the second half with the filter, amongst a few other factors.
I have created a more detailed filter that seems to bring up some decent matches.
I am thinking of waiting around 5 mins after the 2nd half starts or potentially splitting my stake in games. Something I will need to test. -
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@Jonathan-West nothing I've noticed
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@Jonathan-West It's fine for me.
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@Jonathan-West anyone else having issues with slow loading times for the betfair site last few days?
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@Martin I'm testing a lay 3.5 goal market for the first 10mins of a game. I have a few filters I'm testing, mainly focused on H2H average first half goal times. I also increasingly use the football ratings spreadsheets. Incidentally, is there a possibility of the football ratings stats being incorporated into the software in the future? for example, the 'goal expectation' and 'activity bias' are so useful for this strategy I am testing.
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@Craig-vaulks said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin for shg I will at least look at league positions and recent results. But again depends on the strategy.
Yes I do this as well, especially how often the scorlines increase a lot after the first half
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yes there are strategies that are inplay. then you i look at the stats pre and in play.
when we talk about the thomasz strategie then i don't look at the games only that there is still some thing to play for.etc.
etc.
etc.
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@Martin for shg I will at least look at league positions and recent results. But again depends on the strategy.
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@Jonathan-West what sort of L2B strategy are you using?
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hi all I recently came across a Peter Webb video that included him mentioning his own in-depth spreadsheet, honed over years of experience, which allows him to predict goal times to a high degree of accuracy. As someone trying their hand at L2B the goal markets at various match times, this sounds like the holy grail. So I thought I would ask if anyone is successfully doing this and knows of good resources to try out. Or if they are testing promising strategies on the BTC software?
