*****New Football Thread*****
-
@Martin Leading on from that do people take precautions for games the first weekend after the international break, probably not so important for this one as I assume people are being cautious as the big leagues are not fully up and running yet.
-
Something that I have been looking at for fun (I know sad!) but is the XG inclusive, to get a handle of the teams in the premier league.
This was peaked by a podcast about Liverpool I listen to, they broke down this for each team and it was fascinating.
Especially in the case of Chelsea, who were the 4th best team in the league on XG inclusive last season, the reason I liked it is you can look at it and see what those teams need to do to get better.
The inclusive is everything, goals, shots, defensive etc... over the 38 game period.
United fascinated me, they were 19th in the league at conceding shots.
Just on that metric alone it make me really want to look at Chelsea, if they start scoring a few more they have a real chance for the top 4.
I also liked it because Liverpool were very high on it, but then I spoke with somebody I know who until recently worked at Betfair and he was an analyst on the odds, he said they were using this stat to look at where teams would finish and price up the winners and relegation market.
He stated that XG per game they didn't really like, how they are using it is to look at longer data sets and then see if the trends fit.
One of the things he said they like to do is use that as a base then see if its starting to change, he used the example of Ugarte, will he stop united conceding so many shots on their goal? Maybe but he also said that even if that happens they still have the same goalie and same manager who has set them up in the way they have been set up to get the poor XG.
Really interesting stuff. Well is for me!
-
@Martin I will take selections on a case by case basis. Since there are less of them popping up you can deep dive a bit more.
Had South Shields v Buxton on a FHG filter for inplay and I think the National League is so far removed from the big leagues I decided to take it.
Only about £500 matched which I guess can be annoying as you move into bigger staking and scaling.
Do you and anyone else think that during these periods that the lower league games liquidity and odds get distorted by big boy/girl traders dropping £100s into relatively small games?
-
-
@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
International break just as the season gets started.........
Awful, isn't it?
Means I have to dip down the leagues
-
-
-
@Alex-Rule nah, amount I miss out on would be negligible and I like Keith's thinking. By and large if it's not on betfair then it's more than likely a potential risk to my bank rather than an opportunity.
-
Has anyone else played around with other exchanges for leagues for specific games that don't seem to appear in Betfair?
Smarkets seems to have more games listed from the - Primera B Nacional and Primera B Metropolitana leagues with 6 games vs 2 on Betair?
Do people feel like they are missing out on ops due to Betfair occasional poor listings or do people shop around regularly?
-
@Akiva-Anderson very poor you may as well pack it in
-
Made 60% of my starting bankroll for August. Mad that I actually describe that as a poor month now.
-
@Alastair-Todd sometimes Betfair gives them strange names which makes them hard to search for and they don't always cover their lower leagues.
-
The Finland leagues have some very quick first goal times. I am covering three games from my filter but all of them went unmatched as the goals came too early. Eleven goals between three of them by half time! Bizarrely I couldn't find one of the on Betfair at all for some reason.
-
@Ryan Just looking at the premier league odds as well. What price do you think Arsenal would be if city didn’t have those charges hanging over them?
Can’t help feel that arsenals odds look overly short assuming I’m right that man city points deductions don’t come this season
-
