*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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Only inplay SHG for the games that are around 8-10 pm.
Really good for SHG. Usually two or more.
You can usually lay next two goals up and win.
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@Stuart-Capstick I take it you don't really get involved in it yourself then from that?
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@Andy-Donnelly No, it started from week 5 onwards which is when I entertain a trade. Been abysmal.
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@Richard-Latimer Have you had most of your MLS losses recently? Reason for asking is they are getting close to end of regular season and not sure how much you factor in motivation as a factor on your strategy. I had a loss on the Philadelphia game the other day and was on the fence to go for it as there wasn’t much on the line. Teams could be conserving energy for the playoffs if they are already confirmed in the playoffs.
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The MLS is like the A League: predictably unpredictable, full of old stars and donkeys. The standard of both leagues is really on a par with some of Europe's second and third tier leagues. In fact, any team from Bundesliga 2 would walk either the MLS or the A League.
Throw in the huge distances some teams have to travel and you have a pretty heady mix of unforeseeable variables. -
@Stuart-Capstick Agreed. For me though, it's just a question of the games that look most likely to have goals not being consistent with what the stats say. And last season they were.
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Av goals per game 2.97
Av goals per game last season 3.11
Hardly a collapse and we haven't yet had the end of season nonsense where, as in most leagues, there is a glut of goals.
Just depends on what you are trading.
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@Shannon-Townsend Yeah, I am thinking dropping that and Mexico may be a blessing haha!
I know variance of course but a whole season's worth??! Like I say, if all the leagues were to do this I'd be screwed.
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@Richard-Latimer It looks like the average goals per game in the MLS are actually up although that stat doesnt tell the whole story as it may only be a few teams that are having crazy games with goals whilst the rest is dull... i think you have just had a bit of bad luck/varience... i like the MLS but as i have to trade out on my LTD i rarely trade it as value my sleep more
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@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's
I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah defo overall goals seem down though Inter Miami games have been nuts with goals! I don't get many games crop up for me from MLS as odds are usually short
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What about you @Martin?
Overall my stats are robust but MLS has really caught me off guard.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Stuart-Capstick interesting to note. I start off looking for games where both teams have scored in at least 80% of last games. Then a bit of tweaking around the edges.
My last loss came in NY Redbulls game. Last season goals galore on these parameters. This season, terrible.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!
Odds were 1.52. It’s a market I’ve added to my trading. Now doing,
Over 1.5 goals
SHG
Corners
Home win -
No. Not at all. Quite the opposite. Virtually every game seems to have a SHG and go over 1.5.
FHG in that league hasn't been so good, however.
It just depends, I imagine, which markets you trade and which games fit your parameters.
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Has anyone else found the MLS awful for goals this season?
Basically around 12pts to the good last season and now in the red.
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Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Ryan Can't quite remember, although I'm pretty sure that the 1.5 and 0.5 FHG were based on yours and then tweaked by me.
As for the SHG - I started that after watching the video and so I look for 0-0 at HT and then do a rapid bit of stats analysis to see if it is worth putting the trade on.
The 1.5 strike rate is just under 83% with the other two hovering just over 77% but I do take into account the league strike rates as well which often means I don't enter the trade - I am finding that Argentina and Brazil are going through a pretty rubbish patch for goals (at least the games that my filter throws up!).
Keep up the good work.
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@Alastair-Todd Well you dont strike me as an erratic person so lets break it down, the matched betting is solid because its risk free and can be a little top up every month.
Accas - were these for fun or more of the matched betting laying off ones? (never done these! only the accas back in the day with laddies on that big slip lol!).
Nice! are the FHG and over 1.5 the ones you got from us or you built yourself? Same with the SHG?
