*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

My testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Richard Latimer

@Martin yeah, they didn't fit my criteria which is so far robust in most of the bigger leagues

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's

I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.

That's just one result though, 5 of their last 6 games have gone over 3.5 goals and last two over 4.5! (One had 8!)

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Only inplay SHG for the games that are around 8-10 pm.

Really good for SHG. Usually two or more.

You can usually lay next two goals up and win.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick I take it you don't really get involved in it yourself then from that?

Richard Latimer

@Andy-Donnelly No, it started from week 5 onwards which is when I entertain a trade. Been abysmal.

Andy Donnelly

@Richard-Latimer Have you had most of your MLS losses recently? Reason for asking is they are getting close to end of regular season and not sure how much you factor in motivation as a factor on your strategy. I had a loss on the Philadelphia game the other day and was on the fence to go for it as there wasn’t much on the line. Teams could be conserving energy for the playoffs if they are already confirmed in the playoffs.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

The MLS is like the A League: predictably unpredictable, full of old stars and donkeys. The standard of both leagues is really on a par with some of Europe's second and third tier leagues. In fact, any team from Bundesliga 2 would walk either the MLS or the A League.
Throw in the huge distances some teams have to travel and you have a pretty heady mix of unforeseeable variables.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick Agreed. For me though, it's just a question of the games that look most likely to have goals not being consistent with what the stats say. And last season they were.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Av goals per game 2.97

Av goals per game last season 3.11

Hardly a collapse and we haven't yet had the end of season nonsense where, as in most leagues, there is a glut of goals.

Just depends on what you are trading.

Richard Latimer

@Shannon-Townsend Yeah, I am thinking dropping that and Mexico may be a blessing haha!

I know variance of course but a whole season's worth??! Like I say, if all the leagues were to do this I'd be screwed.

Shannon Townsend

@Richard-Latimer It looks like the average goals per game in the MLS are actually up although that stat doesnt tell the whole story as it may only be a few teams that are having crazy games with goals whilst the rest is dull... i think you have just had a bit of bad luck/varience... i like the MLS but as i have to trade out on my LTD i rarely trade it as value my sleep more

Richard Latimer

@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's

I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer yeah defo overall goals seem down though Inter Miami games have been nuts with goals! I don't get many games crop up for me from MLS as odds are usually short

Richard Latimer

What about you @Martin?

Overall my stats are robust but MLS has really caught me off guard.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick interesting to note. I start off looking for games where both teams have scored in at least 80% of last games. Then a bit of tweaking around the edges.

My last loss came in NY Redbulls game. Last season goals galore on these parameters. This season, terrible.

Akiva Anderson

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!

Odds were 1.52. It’s a market I’ve added to my trading. Now doing,

Over 1.5 goals
SHG
Corners
Home win

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

No. Not at all. Quite the opposite. Virtually every game seems to have a SHG and go over 1.5.

FHG in that league hasn't been so good, however.

It just depends, I imagine, which markets you trade and which games fit your parameters.

Richard Latimer

Has anyone else found the MLS awful for goals this season?

Basically around 12pts to the good last season and now in the red.

Akiva Anderson

Everyone on the Harrogate vs Crewe match tonight?! Over 8.5 corners for me!!