*****New Football Thread*****
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@Chris-King Good post Chris, last game was weird, was frustrating to watch but afterwards you realise that as well as winning we also hit the post and missed 2 sitters. I'm grateful for what Southgate has done though, apart from Sir Alf no one has achieved more.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah i do see your points and those shared with others’. I’m just looking at our position for what it is and personally I often don’t see any point in overly focussing on the negative as what’s the point? But they will have to play better to go further no doubt and they need to stop sitting back after goals. We’re still in and there is still opportunity to play better and to potential and as you say it’s not like we don’t have the players to do so…if we hadn’t, I doubt we’d have saved the match on Sunday. Foden had his goal disallowed for making his run a little too early and Rice hit the post which both probably amount to us being just inches away from a different outcome 2-1 in full time? I agree, in football i don’t understand late substitution’s like that unless it’s due to injury or preventing one or to waste time.
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Southgate reminds you of a trader who is jumping on one thing after another in a scattergun approach.
He really doesn't have a clue as exemplified by waiting until the 94th minute to put Toney on when we were losing
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@Chris-King the difference is that this year we have many of the best footballers on the planet who are being poorly coached by a manager no premier league club would likely touch with a bargepole.
Certainly not the elites.
I don't blame the players. Most don't.
We were woeful and didn't get a shot on target until the 95th minute.
Where your argument falls down is if we play that bad against a decent team they'll be out of sight by the 95th minute.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Akiva-Anderson I was on about 10% up until Fri. 3 poor results later and my month ended in a loss.
In other news Ronaldo is a f*****g baby!!
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Going completely against the grain here most likely and have been all tournament, I’m no football expert and don’ pretend to be, I trade it and I don’t watch a lot but over the years have seen plenty and always followed England, so maybe I’m able to look at things from a different perspective, but I’m really not getting, or am impressed by the overly negative opinions of this England team everywhere you look. OK so they haven’t lived up to ‘expectations’ but what England team has ever done so or instilled flawless confidence in the nation and media? This is the Euro’s and footballers have never been fitter, stronger or more well trained and not one wants to loose and all will be giving all they have to win. every player in every team is a pro and can play to the level almost all men can only dream of, so no game is easy nor should it be and we see that every tournament. We’ve made some bad mistakes and had luck, but so have other teams. Italy are out. Portugal have struggled in their round 16 match, we’re not exceptional in that regard. The way i see this is for what it is, we’ve played below our potential but are unbeaten, got the group placing we wanted, conceded 2 goals in 4 matches and in the last were all over the opposition who defended superbly on the ropes for the majority of the match but we never gave up, never stopped believing we could win and ground out what will probably be a game that will always be remembered for the goal that took us in to extra time; when will any of us see a game saved in that way again, let alone an England game in an international tournament? Never. That’s the s**t you dreamed of seeing growing up watching England and dreamed was you scoring. Too many times we’ve been on the receiving end. Every team we are yet to face if it’s a close game won’t be able to switch off for a second right until the last because we’ve proven we’re dangerous and capable or changing a game in a moment with the slightest of chances to them and more importantly the players have proven it to themselves. And we’re still favourites, despite playing ‘badly’ which speaks volumes for other nation’s and own own collective opinions respectively. If this is how we play badly in an international tournament then I’m more than comfortable with it. Personally I’ve seen it all with England as we all have so if we’re in we’re in and that’s what matters. On to the next match. A win’s a win, it doesn’t matter how it’s done.
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Update
Week 6: £161.05 - £177.15 (30th June 2024)
Made a loss of £17.50 this week. A mixture of England / France at the Euros followed by a very poor J-League midweek
Actual Bank is £192.10
Hoping to bounce back this week, although I'm expecting it to be quieter.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Tony-Hastie Smart move, same! if they win it all the other teams should be ashamed of themselves lol
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@Ryan I traded out of my (small) england lay before the quarters. Im not getting a lot of the "we're bringing it home" vibe that Ive seen in every tournament theyve played in since time began. Instead its be the "how crap are we" vibe! Buggers will probably win it now
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Wow England are amazing aren't they, what's with all the press around them as well? It's all well skewed....
Like 'That Bellingham goal will become history' Yeh because of how it got England out the s**t. Not because they were any good lol
What was Kyle Walker doing?!
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@Alastair-Todd Spain v Germany will be a tasty game!
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WHAT AN OWN GOAL FOR GEORGIA!!!!!
They'd probably beat England... -
@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin U3.5 at 1.3 looks decent when you factor in only one knockout game under Southgate went over that line
wow great stat!
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@Akiva-Anderson I think they will but 1.19 to qualify that's confidence!
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@Martin U3.5 at 1.3 looks decent when you factor in only one knockout game under Southgate went over that line
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
6.0 looks big on Slovakia to qualify. England should get through but I wouldn't want to back them at 1.19 from what I have seen so far!
Took England to win tonight at 1.46
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
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@Nick-Allan so are you saying 100 selections per year? This can be hard to do well on long term as that's only an average of 1 selection per 3.65 days.
That said these strategies can sometimes have the biggest edges as it makes sense that big value prices would not occur all the time.
I prefer as many results as possible really and if you have backtesting I would want more than two years in this case. I guess forward testing will be the place to add time to it.
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So in the summer months which are quieter I’m doing a lot more back testing of strategies.
But one of things I’m struggling with is the amount of selections I’m getting, and to see if it’s a viable sample. So, say I’m doing an Over 2.5 goal back testing over 2 seasons in CGM (which some may use). In order to look at good strike rate and yield I may end up with only 200 games. Of course I would look at those 200 games in greater detail but should I be looking for a larger section of games with a lower yield or strike rate? So if you have 200 games at say 38% SR and 6 point yield but you have 300 games with say 35% SR and 2 point yield, which is better to analyse?
Common sense would say you favour the higher SR and yield? Of course each future selection needs analysis but i mainly want to ask about parameters that others look for in back testing a strategy?
