*****New Football Thread*****
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@Martin I think I also traded the same game. Yeah the score at HT can be useful when deciding to trade it or not. If the heavy faves are 2-0 or 3-0 up it may be worth avoiding or at least waiting a while to see how the second half develops.
That's what I've done with my filter added overall average over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half and also overall average goal time below 67mins. Amongst a few other things. -
@Craig-vaulks yes this is a great idea, look for teams that score plenty of second half goals and also good inplay stats, also look for scorelines that suit. Like that Icelandic game at HT home team losing 1-2, they were heavy favs prematch. Easy to get on at 65 mins at 1.4 (I actually took 1.3 at 60) as goal was so likely. Ended 2-4
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@Peter-Backhouse-0 will ask @Adam in our meeting tomorrow
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@Terry-Heller thats good going, combining in play and pre match stats is definitely my prefered way to trade. I have just been reading through Chris's link about the shg strat.
There are a couple if interesting staking methods that I like the look of. Split staking the 2 and 1 goal market and also the 2 and 3 goal markets. Something I may start testing myself in the coming months. -
@Craig-vaulks I have been playing around with it just based on the inplay SOT's and not worrying what the score is at HT. Laying the unders 2 goals ahead entering at 1.6 then dripping more in down to 1.05. Not many games covered yet but it is proving to be profitable. The only loss atm was one where I ignored the SOT stat and went by previous form from the stats software. (sorry Martin
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@Terry-Heller cheers terry I have had a brief look over his page. Some interesting stuff on there. Will have a look through it in more detail, something I have not looked at much is regarding the 0-0 at HT.
I try to mainly keep track of the stats inplay regardless of the score and also have a look at some pre match stats to see if its a suitable trade. Still have plenty to learn about the strategy though. -
@Andy-Donnelly finding a balance between suitable matches and also getting value odds will be key no doubt. I have also looked at backing 2 goals in the second half and hedging after the 1st which has done ok.
However you are much more reliant on the 1st goal coming inside 70mins otherwise the return will be poor, unless you are confident of a 2nd goal coming. -
@Craig-vaulks You could have a look at Chris's thoughts on this here:
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4450/shg-in-play-trading/2
You will find a link in the opening post to an analysis of over 4000 games that were 0-0 at HT and the stats for a SHG pertaining to those games.
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@Craig-vaulks Learn from my mistakes. Something that will sound obvious but I’ve been working on a SHG filter for ages and was so obsessed on getting a high strike rate and didn’t look enough at whether the odds were value against it. I did set an odds limit that would give me a margin and was queuing to that price at HT, but in the end so many games had a goal before they hit the odds and the selections that did get matched simply weren’t profitable in the long run.
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@Martin Hi Martin, do we have a date for the backtesting software yet?
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What are peoples thoughts/tactics around the shg strategy? I have been looking into it a fair bit and doing it myself for a little while.
The general idea I see is find games with 5 or more shots on target in the 1st half and also a over 85% chance of a goal in the second half with the filter, amongst a few other factors.
I have created a more detailed filter that seems to bring up some decent matches.
I am thinking of waiting around 5 mins after the 2nd half starts or potentially splitting my stake in games. Something I will need to test. -
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@Jonathan-West nothing I've noticed
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@Jonathan-West It's fine for me.
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@Jonathan-West anyone else having issues with slow loading times for the betfair site last few days?
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@Martin I'm testing a lay 3.5 goal market for the first 10mins of a game. I have a few filters I'm testing, mainly focused on H2H average first half goal times. I also increasingly use the football ratings spreadsheets. Incidentally, is there a possibility of the football ratings stats being incorporated into the software in the future? for example, the 'goal expectation' and 'activity bias' are so useful for this strategy I am testing.
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@Craig-vaulks said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin for shg I will at least look at league positions and recent results. But again depends on the strategy.
Yes I do this as well, especially how often the scorlines increase a lot after the first half
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yes there are strategies that are inplay. then you i look at the stats pre and in play.
when we talk about the thomasz strategie then i don't look at the games only that there is still some thing to play for.etc.
etc.
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