*****New Football Thread*****

Taff Phillips

To work out your Back Odds from your SR you can use strikeratecalculator.com

Once you have your back odds I have a different formula to the above 2 options which takes in to account your commission also.

Lay Odds = 1 + ((1 - Commission) / (Back Odds - 1))

Commission is expressed as a Decimal so if you're on 2% use 0.02.

You now have plenty of options to follow

Good luck.with the filter mate

? Offline

@Alex-Rule There is a strike rate calculator that will give you the minimum odds required on the forum under

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3787/resources

However it wouldnt be too difficult to incorporate the formula into your spreadsheet

PS I use a different formula to get the Equivalent lay odds

Back Price / (Back Price - 1)

eg 1.17 / (1.17-1) = 6.88

Alex Rule

@Stuart-Capstick said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule

Calculate back odds
1/SR expressed as decimal

Then lay odds:
1/(1-back odds)

So, 85% strike rate

Back odds 1/0.85= 1.17

Lay odds 1/(1-1.17)
= 5.88

Fantastic so a strike rate of 82%
1/0.82 = 1.22
1/(1-0.22) = 4.54

Is there an online calculator for this I can book mark for future?

Thanks so much for the help - really interesting to understand! Cheers

Stuart Capstick

@Alex-Rule

Calculate back odds
1/SR expressed as decimal

Then lay odds:
1/(1-back odds)

So, 85% strike rate

Back odds 1/0.85= 1.17

Lay odds 1/(1-1.17)
= 5.88

Alex Rule

@Taff-Phillips said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule What's your expected/back tested Strike Rate? This will affect the max odds you want to lay at.

I'm expecting about an 80-85% strike rate from a first glance. Is there a calculator that tells you the LAY odds based on that kind of win %?

Help appreciated as I have always backed on strategies and now looking to add lay ones into the portfolio. Cheers all!

Martin

@Alex-Rule find out your odds range through the testing, it's hard to guess what range will be the best for a strategy without the results data

Taff Phillips

@Alex-Rule What's your expected/back tested Strike Rate? This will affect the max odds you want to lay at.

Alex Rule

Morning boys and girls!

I'm testing a new lay the draw set and forget strategy - currently I don't have any odds filters for the Lay price of the draw. Does anyone have a quick or good idea of how to calculate what my lay limits should be so I don't wipe out my profit? @Ryan you do a lot of this if I am thinking right?

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw

I didn't watch, so the inplay stats were very different from the the way the game played out? Why Leicester wouldn't put some effort in baffles me but their away scoring record is terrible and Newcastle don't concede much at home.

What were the chances like that Newcastle missed then?

Martin

@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5:

I'll analyse this loss as I do with all my losses but on the face of it the problem doesn't appear to be end of season related. Newcastle missed 3big chances/hit woodwork and Leicester who need the points offered nothing!

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

The winter leagues are coming to an end...bad times. There should still be enough football to trade June / July...good times!!

Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, MLS & Brazil are my favourites

Add to that Nations League Semi-Finals + Finals, two rounds of European Qualification...

And Champions League Qualifiers, Europa League Qualifiers & Conference League Qualifiers...

And the Scottish League Cup Group games start on the 15th July - Always good for goals.

Not the famine a lot of people are predicting.

Should be able to grow the bank by around 25%

Hear Hear!

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Inter Turku vs Mariehamn mach. 0-0 at HT

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Haka vs VPS match. 2-2 at HT

Akiva Anderson

The winter leagues are coming to an end...bad times. There should still be enough football to trade June / July...good times!!

Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, MLS & Brazil are my favourites

Add to that Nations League Semi-Finals + Finals, two rounds of European Qualification...

And Champions League Qualifiers, Europa League Qualifiers & Conference League Qualifiers...

And the Scottish League Cup Group games start on the 15th July - Always good for goals.

Not the famine a lot of people are predicting.

Should be able to grow the bank by around 25%

Richard Latimer

@Taff-Phillips said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Ryan

Do you stick to the "don't trade the last 5 games of the season" rule/advice religiously or just use it as a guide?

I'm just considering in terms of your Over 1.5 Split Stake Strategy and today's selection (Newcastle vs Leicester). Both teams still have stuff to play for, be it Champions League football next year or just surviving the relegation drop. I personally feel this is a game with goals as Leicester have to get some more points on the board so must be pushing. Whilst Newcastle could shut up shop for a draw and one point would see them right, I think Leicester needing something from both remaining games make this game an opportunity missed if not traded.

Thoughts?

Anyone else feel free to pitch in, all opinions welcome.

Not a professional and only recently profitable but I pay no attention to it all. From my much more limited experience I find games at the end of the season more open and the odds can sometimes reflect this.

In short, it's a qualifier for me as well and I'll be trading it.

Taff Phillips

@Ryan

Do you stick to the "don't trade the last 5 games of the season" rule/advice religiously or just use it as a guide?

I'm just considering in terms of your Over 1.5 Split Stake Strategy and today's selection (Newcastle vs Leicester). Both teams still have stuff to play for, be it Champions League football next year or just surviving the relegation drop. I personally feel this is a game with goals as Leicester have to get some more points on the board so must be pushing. Whilst Newcastle could shut up shop for a draw and one point would see them right, I think Leicester needing something from both remaining games make this game an opportunity missed if not traded.

Thoughts?

Anyone else feel free to pitch in, all opinions welcome.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim

The tiniest tiniest profit and the tinieest new bank high

2-0

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5 Ajax

1-1