*****New Football Thread*****
-
Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
Compliments of the season one and all.. hopefully now we can have a quantity of football to trade
Todays Over 2.5 small selection but as usual split stake from the start out after 55 if no goal, if goal in first 15 green to free bet and continue split stake to 55, if goal after 15 take green, entry points start, 15 mins, 35 mins and half time the first two automatic the second two based on attacking intent in play.
Club Brugge vs Westerlo
Coventry vs Plymouth
Celtic vs Motherwell
Liverpool vs LeicesterOne thing over festive period to note I am always cautious go managers managing minutes of players - this can sometimes manifest I getting early lead and sitting on it .. just a note of caution for my trading.
-
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Over 1.5 Goals (Value):
19:45 - Dungannon v Larne
Do they ever un-suspend the market on Betfair?
-
SHG in the Fiorentina v Udinese match. 1-0 at HT
-
@Martin Been looking at games other than 0-0. If 0-1 or 1-0, O 1.5 total has to be 75% or more. 1-1, O 2.5 has to be 60% or more. That's over and above the stats you've mentioned in message and previous vids/podcasts.
Also asked chat gpt for the 40 best leagues for shgs.(anything to not actually have to watch football!)
Been going ok...
-
Over 1.5 Goals (Value):
19:45 - Dungannon v Larne
-
@Martin for me it would be a combination of 2h home scored, away scored then same with conceded.
I should add this is a theory and not something I've done.
It is however the way I am looking at all football strategies/systems now.
-
Looking to create some content on stats to looks for with Second Half Goal Strategies, wondering what other people have used for theirs?
So far I have:
Shots on Target H2 - Total
Goal Attempts H2 - Total
Total Scored H2 - Total & %
H2 Over 0.5, 1.5 & 2.5 - %
Scored in H2 - % -
@Andy-Donnelly great shout that!
-
SHG in the Monza v Juventus match. 1-2 at HT
-
My next trade is Den haag v Oss FHG.
-
Late FHG in the Ragensburg v Darmstadt is what I'm trading. Odds currently 2.94. Low stake.
-
Man Utd look short today on the match odds too. Bournemouth a dangerous side. Think Utd at 1.86 is a good lay option.
A bit more dicey an option, but also think markets have overreacted on Liverpools odds today. They prob will win, but spurs at 5s feels too big, considering their attacking qualities. Could easily score the first goal and then trade out at that point.
-
@Akiva-Anderson double bubble?
-
Over 1.5 Goals (Value): Sunday, 22nd December 2024
14:00 – Manchester United v Bournemouth
14:00 – Manchester United v Bournemouth -
Let's all laugh at City!
With the drop-off of this side are we really saying Pep is one of the greats??
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
SHG in the Doncaster v Tranmere match. 1-0 at HT
-
Over 1.5 Goals (Value):
15:00 – Leeds v Oxford
15:00 – Harrogate v Walsall
17:45 – Almere v Heerenveen -
SHG in the Wycombe v Bolton game is my next trade. SHG in the last 23 games for away side.
-
@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going for Over 1. Goals in the following matches:
19:45 - Verona v Milan
20:00 - Girona v ValladolidI should expand a bit on this.
Verona v Milan:
Over 1.5 Goals: 81.72%
Implied Odds: 1.22
Actual Odds: 1.28
Value: +4.92%Girona v Valladolid:
Over 1.5 Goals: 83.73%
Implied Odds: 1.19
Actual Odds: 1.30
Value: +9.24%
