*****New Football Thread*****

? Offline

@Martin I started testing in Jan 23, however I didn't start to record prices until April as the original strategy was built for LTD and didn't work, but the data suggested FH Goals. At that point I started recording the prices. If I include the other 420 results with the 121 that I have with the prices. I have SR of 65% at 15 and 42% at 30 which needs 1.55 and 2.37, so you could argue that it is still value. I also haven't done any league/odds filtering on the original so that could increase the 65%/42% if there are a couple of leagues where it really doesn't work.

james everard

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

The winter leagues are coming to an end...bad times. There should still be enough football to trade June / July...good times!!

Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, MLS & Brazil are my favourites

Add to that Nations League Semi-Finals + Finals, two rounds of European Qualification...

And Champions League Qualifiers, Europa League Qualifiers & Conference League Qualifiers...

And the Scottish League Cup Group games start on the 15th July - Always good for goals.

Not the famine a lot of people are predicting.

Should be able to grow the bank by around 25%

I haven't been trading the European winter leagues for the last few weeks and just been trading the South American and South Korean/Japan/Estonia and Lithuanian leagues. Looks like the Norway and Swedish leagues are about to hit the 10 game rule after this weekend so like you say plenty to trade in the summer still

? Offline

It seems quite a few of us are playing around with the FHG markets and though using different selection criteria we all seem to be getting around 80% from KO and it seems from my own and what others have posted here around 70% after 15 minutes.

Since I started recording mine with what I consider to be the 'right' spreadsheet I have 249 selections covering March April and May this year.

What I am finding is from KO +0.5 and +1.5 are profitable
And after 15 minutes both markets are also profitable but with 30% fewer qualifying matches
Fairbot is easy to set up to place the bets for 15 minutes though I am still uncertain about how best to stake them.

Martin Walker

I have a FHG filter running at 84% from kick off. Over 300 results in the tweaked version and over 700 results in the version before this. Im just really lacking the time to commit to fully get it ready to be a real strategy. Id be interested to see what the strike rate dropped to after 15 minutes

Martin

@Joe-Beeston what date did you start testing?

? Offline

@Martin Yeah the initial testing has been positive.

121 selections is still a really small sample size. I have caught the last month of the winter leagues, I will get the summer leagues and then probably get the first month or so when the winter leagues return and that should then give me enough data to go at. 1.78 odds suggest a SR of 56%, so a starting 70% is an encouraging start but we shall see.

Martin

@Joe-Beeston 70% is huge for after 15mins good thing on this market is odds rise fast inplay

? Offline

@Samo Hi Samo,

I am currently testing a strategy for FH goals at the minute and I have a 70% strike rate from 15 minutes onwards. I agree with you, the odds for over 0.5 goals in the first half are short which is why I only get involved from 15 minutes onwards and again at 30 minutes if no goal. At 15minutes I have a SR of 70% and at 30 minutes 50%. At those SR, I need odds of 1.42 and 2 to get value. I have been getting on average 1.73 & 2.76.

It is still early days but I found getting involved later in the match is better for odds than getting involved right at the beginning.

? Offline

Hi All

i have a question:

i'm looking at the First Half market O 0,5 goals and it looks like the ods are to short for backing the over 0,5 trade considering the SR.
i know that a lot of people are trying to crack this market but are struggling to make a decent profit. So my thought is what if we flip it and back the under 0,5 or lay the over 0,5 First Half.
people like to back the over market more than watching a boring 0-0 half/game and people want action so i think that is why the ods are to short.

is there some one who is doing this

Taff Phillips

@Alex-Rule

To work out your Back Odds from your SR you can use strikeratecalculator.com

Once you have your back odds I have a different formula to the above 2 options which takes in to account your commission also.

Lay Odds = 1 + ((1 - Commission) / (Back Odds - 1))

Commission is expressed as a Decimal so if you're on 2% use 0.02.

You now have plenty of options to follow

Good luck.with the filter mate

? Offline

@Alex-Rule There is a strike rate calculator that will give you the minimum odds required on the forum under

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3787/resources

However it wouldnt be too difficult to incorporate the formula into your spreadsheet

PS I use a different formula to get the Equivalent lay odds

Back Price / (Back Price - 1)

eg 1.17 / (1.17-1) = 6.88

Alex Rule

@Stuart-Capstick said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule

Calculate back odds
1/SR expressed as decimal

Then lay odds:
1/(1-back odds)

So, 85% strike rate

Back odds 1/0.85= 1.17

Lay odds 1/(1-1.17)
= 5.88

Fantastic so a strike rate of 82%
1/0.82 = 1.22
1/(1-0.22) = 4.54

Is there an online calculator for this I can book mark for future?

Thanks so much for the help - really interesting to understand! Cheers

Stuart Capstick

@Alex-Rule

Calculate back odds
1/SR expressed as decimal

Then lay odds:
1/(1-back odds)

So, 85% strike rate

Back odds 1/0.85= 1.17

Lay odds 1/(1-1.17)
= 5.88

Alex Rule

@Taff-Phillips said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Alex-Rule What's your expected/back tested Strike Rate? This will affect the max odds you want to lay at.

I'm expecting about an 80-85% strike rate from a first glance. Is there a calculator that tells you the LAY odds based on that kind of win %?

Help appreciated as I have always backed on strategies and now looking to add lay ones into the portfolio. Cheers all!

Martin

@Alex-Rule find out your odds range through the testing, it's hard to guess what range will be the best for a strategy without the results data

Taff Phillips

@Alex-Rule What's your expected/back tested Strike Rate? This will affect the max odds you want to lay at.

Alex Rule

Morning boys and girls!

I'm testing a new lay the draw set and forget strategy - currently I don't have any odds filters for the Lay price of the draw. Does anyone have a quick or good idea of how to calculate what my lay limits should be so I don't wipe out my profit? @Ryan you do a lot of this if I am thinking right?

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw

I didn't watch, so the inplay stats were very different from the the way the game played out? Why Leicester wouldn't put some effort in baffles me but their away scoring record is terrible and Newcastle don't concede much at home.

What were the chances like that Newcastle missed then?

Martin

@Richard-Latimer problem is both teams seemed happy with a point from what I saw

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay Under 1.5:

I'll analyse this loss as I do with all my losses but on the face of it the problem doesn't appear to be end of season related. Newcastle missed 3big chances/hit woodwork and Leicester who need the points offered nothing!