*****New Football Thread*****
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@Joseph-Henderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Is there any way to retrospectively get inplay price data (E.g. how a goal moved the price)?
Betfair release historical data CSVs with all the prices, but you'd still need to match them up with goal times (although it's pretty obvious when a goal is scored if you look at the Correct Score market as obviously one of the options becomes unavailable when a goal is scored.
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@Maximiliano-Garnero It's probably over-complicating things, but I try to drip in in 5 legs at odds that in theory will be reached at 45, 55, 65, 75 and 85 minutes, and that will each offer the same return. So, for example, £10 at 1.25, £5 at 1.5, £3.33 at 1.75 etc. will all return £2.50. I usually add on £1 at 10 to catch the ultra late goal. (Those aren't necessarily the odds or stakes I use, but you get the idea.) You need to work out by observation how the odds are likely to move, or, of course, follow the game with a clock and a calculator. I'm still tweaking it myself. The combined stakes should always add up the the maximum you're prepared to risk on the trade. It's sensible to have a minimum starting position though - say 1.22 or 1.25. If the odds are higher than that at the start, of course, you get a bigger bang for your buck. These 2 games started at 1.21 and 1.35. Straight bets at 1.25 (my minimum) and 1.35 would have returned 0.25 and 0.35 pts, respectively - 0.6pts total. Because both were late goals, my return was very slightly over 1.0 pts (all less commission, of course). On the minus side, two goals with only 1 leg matched would have seen a return of just 0.25 pts. This method appeals to me because you still get something from an early goal while being able to take advantage of higher odds if the goal is later. It's all swings and roundabouts, though. I believe Akiva always just goes straight in, and he doesn't seem to do too badly.
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@Trevor-H said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson I use a progressive staking plan, so I do love a late goal! Not so good for the nerves when there's a pair of them, though.
Agree! Looked like it wasn’t going to be my night! Then two goals came along at one.
In fairness, there should be at least 3 or four goals in this Maccabi Tel Aviv match. Thankfully the goal came from the ever reliable Eran Zahavi
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@Akiva-Anderson I use a progressive staking plan, so I do love a late goal! Not so good for the nerves when there's a pair of them, though.
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SHG in the Maccabi Tel Aviv vs AEK Larnaca match. 0-0 at HT
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SHG in the Dynamo Kyiv vs Aris match. 1-1 at HT
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@Joseph-Henderson Hmmm maybe @Adam would know where that is? I used to have a sheet with that on which a guy manually collected but it's gone!
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Is there any way to retrospectively get inplay price data (E.g. how a goal moved the price)?
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@Maximiliano-Garnero said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson I lay Sevilla now they took the lead, they were at 10, got them for 3.25, what do you think about the trade?
It would be very unlike City not to score
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@Akiva-Anderson I lay Sevilla now they took the lead, they were at 10, got them for 3.25, what do you think about the trade?
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Not a lot on tonight. A Man City win for me. Will probably go for over 1.5 goals in the league cup match tonight too
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SHG in the Larne v Ballymena match. 0-0 at HT
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SHG in the Wrexham v Walsall match. 2-1 at HT
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SHG in the Stockport v Bradford match. 0-0 at HT
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SHG in the Servettev Rangers match. 1-0 at HT
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SHG in the Molde v Ki match. 1-0 at HT
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I fancy Maccabi Haifa to win tonight and also Molde to win
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SHG in the Man United v Wolves match. 0-0 at HT
