*****New Football Thread*****
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@Alex-Rule hope I didn't talk you out of it
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Alex-Rule Also, fine knowing goals have been scored but who has actually put the ball in the net. I'm guessing it's the opposition more times than either of these 2 teams considering their league position.
IMO goals scored are more important than goals conceded although all have a part to play.
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@Alex-Rule Septemvri already safe and Lokomotiva only need a draw to be safe themselves.
Neither team has motive to do anything. Doesn't mean they won't of course but two poor teams who have escaped by the skin of their teeth.
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@Akiva-Anderson Villa must be delighted with their end of season games, the two teams who could not care less!
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Aston Villa odds have dropped quite a bit. Only 1.35 to beat Spurs. Obviously Spurs are resting players for the Europa League final next week and will probably field the under 12's disability team against Villa.
Still think there's value in Villa at 1.35.
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One thing I have noticed is that playoffs are a pain, notice a couple of losses yesterday were play offs.
But also some leagues call the 2nd part of the season playoffs.
I guess the solution is to look at the matches on the shortlist and see if they are playoffs like Charlton and Cruz Azul or if they are league matches disguised as playoff games.
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@Ryan i have been tracking similar for two months now with promising results although i look for nearer 10% gap in odds and my stats probability... from 170 selections i currently have 18pts profit... from the selections you list below the only one i have for today is the Ossauna game...
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@Andy-Donnelly Right now this is pretty loose anything with a 3% increase in value, I am going to be tracking this a lot to see the impact on it.
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@Ryan Nice start. How much of a gap do you want to see to make a selection qualify?
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Something I have been working on recently, this is a straight backing of the over 2.5 goals.
I've used the stats to build this, I call it The Gap. Gap because it's the gap between the probability the exchange gives you and the actual data gives you - so there's value backed in, it's the whole premise of this.
It's started really strong, £278 profit so far to £10 stakes.
DO NOT PUT ANY MONEY ON THESE!
I am testing this and one of the things that always happens when you share something like this is loses, this is a test for it.
If they all lose today then the RT will be down to £148, which I actually expect now I have posted it.
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@Andy-Donnelly one thing you can do is monitor which time of day odds are at their best and work from that, in general I just download them in the morning
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@Andy-Donnelly exactly what others have said for me its about me being consistent, if thats the time I can get the selections and track the odds then thats what I do
That’s worked for me for years anyways.
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@Andy-Donnelly yeah, I record all odds manually. If it doesn't qualify I'll take odds from oddsportal after the game.
It's just a part of recording results for me.
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@Richard-Latimer So do you record the odds of all the selections that qualify manually then? One of my strats has a lot of selections so could be a lot of work to do it that way, but agree it would the way to get the most accurate info
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@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Question for everyone - How do people deal with odds fluctuations when testing football strategies? Also I’ve noticed, that new selections for a given strategy will appear in the software throughout the day, mainly the smaller league games may get added later where there will be little matched in the early hours of a day and odds will only become settled closer to kick off time.
Do people just pick a set time of each day to do the SW download and be consistent? Or do you check multiple times a day and do multiple downloads if necessary?
I've spoken so much about how important the odds are to my stuff recently but I export every possible fixture and if it doesn't fit at the end I'll track but won't trade.
To my mind you should remove the odds criteria from filter. Export everything. Have them all as potentials which may or may not qualify depending on odds just before kickoff. Up until then it can change massively anyway.
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@Alex-Rendell Yeh was thinking of doing at 2 or 3 set times a day. Good shout! Consistency is key I agree
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@Andy-Donnelly personally, I think you have to be consistent with your approach to get the most reliable dataset possible; so either download all the selections for the day at one set time, OR stick to 2 or 3 strict times throughout the day to catch any other selections that may crop up (7am, 12pm & 5pm for example). As long as you maintain the same approach as much as you reasonably can, then your dataset should be reliable (just make sure this approach suits you and your life).
