*****New Football Thread*****
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS I am not advising anything on them, just showing what my thinking is around those 2 prices.
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@Arran-Shackell easy that one.
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Madrid didn't read your post @Ryan. Useless gits!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
2 goals already in the FH
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Over 1.5 Goals tonight:
Dundee v Motherwell
81.4% probability (1.23). Odds are currently 1.29. Value of +4.88%
Easy that
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@Ryan hopefully you're right on the Real price as I'll be laying Bilbao on my system.
On Pep I will stop short of calling him a 100% genius. Yes his influence on the modern game has been massive. Most teams trying to adopt a system of playing out from the back now. Football played along the floor rather than slung up in the air into no mans land.
Thing is, could he get the more limited players doing that same thing that he started all those years ago with the cream of the crop.
Could he break Scottish dominance of the old firm with a shoe string budget and largely average players (or at least players not as good - must admit I know little about the sum of parts in this)? Could he win the European Cup with Aberdeen or Nottm Forest? Then do it again??
Could he consistently keep a team in the Champions League for 17 years.....mostly on a negative net spend and a really limiting wage bill where year after year clubs are poaching your biggest players??
In order to be considered the best, to my mind he has to show he can do it when his back is against the wall and he doesn't have everything going his way. The playing field needs to be level if not tilted against him.
Unless he challenges himself I'm not sure it ever will be.
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@Shannon-Townsend what game?
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@Akiva-Anderson this one popped up on my BTTS filter for tonight with odds currently at 1.73 (57.8% chance)... 4 out of the last 5 games head to head have been BTTS (so 80% or should be odds around 1.25)...
The over 2.5 market looks great value at nearly evens as well...
a quiet day in my office makes finding trades a lot easier.
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Over 1.5 Goals tonight:
Dundee v Motherwell
81.4% probability (1.23). Odds are currently 1.29. Value of +4.88%
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Ryan so what you saying? Straight bet on each ?
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@Shannon-Townsend Yea thats a mental price for Liverpool especially with like you say the form of Liverpool, the H2H, Liverpool have just come off beating Real Madrid and City, that looks crazy to me.
Unless there's about the be some news that Salah, Virgil, Gravenberch are all out....
I looked at that match, I have Arsenal as winning that, but I am with you that price looks huge! Especially if Arsenal start slow and United can nab one!
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@Ryan i was surprised to not see the Liverpool odds be shorter, their excellent form and bearing in mind Newcastle lost at home to West Ham not long ago... strange...
as an outside one i think Man Utd draw no bet at 6.8 looks pretty good as well for a small stake... very high chance Arsenal win i get that but a slighty resurgent Utd and taking the draw out of it this seems a good price to me.
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Couple of mental prices today I have spotted....
Newcastle v Liverpool - by my reckoning Liverpool have a 70% chance of winning this, implying the odds should be 1.43, I am saying if they played this game 10 times, I think Liverpool win 7 of them. Liverpools price on the exchange is 1.86?!
Bilbao v Real - Asian Handicap 0. Real are currently 1.72 - mental?! Surely same logic as above, my stats and calcs have that at a 76% chance of winning, which means the odds should be 1.32 but getting 1.72 here? Mental!
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@GREGORIOS-KARASHIALIS and on to the next one
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@Craig-Greenway i am in also, just got in on the 19th minute @ 1.54
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@Mark-Maguire keep them coming, i like your theory
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My 1st trade of the day is Tampines v Lee Mans FHG.
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@Mark-Maguire Thank you! That be mega!
Yeh that makes a lot of sense that does, like a lad I went to uni with was easily the best player I have ever seen (I went to school with Lee Frecklington and Sam Clucas - both had good careers!). But he took the bright lights option of Man United, didn't get a sniff and ended up doing Physiotherapy washed out (his words) at 28.
That system won't change but its a shame there can't be some kind of joint ownership or longer terms loans, where they still get the name of being a City etc... player but have then gone on loan to the right team.
Look at Ben Doak this season, crushing it at Middlesborough, the issue there though? They'll get promoted what happens?! He should stay on Loan there and get a season in the Premier League with them instead of coming back to sit on the bench.
I do also get though why the Premier League teams do it with PSR rules, they sell 5 players every season who have talent all profit on the books can spend £100-150m on players.... with buybacks just incase and sell on fees.
Myself I would love to see a draft system, I really would love that but it'll never happen.
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A few for me today to be looking at:
Over 2.5 split stake out after 55 min if no goal:
Jablonec vs České
Slovan Bratislava vs Komarno
Red Star vs Backa Topola
Peterborough vs BurtonIf the first goal is in first 15 mins I green up to a free bet and then top up before half time, out at 55 regardless.
If first goal comes later take green.
